Either Dem candidate starts with 242 EVs in the GE

[LonePirate]

http://www.270towin.com/maps/same-since-2000

242 is the number of EVs in the states that have voted for the Dem candidate in each of the past four general elections. There is NO way we lose any of those states in 2016 regardless of the identity of our candidate.

VA is now solidly Dem in presidential elections thanks to the massively populated NoVa region that is overwhelmingly Democratic. Neither Bernie or Clinton changes that this year. We're now at 255.

NM is also solidly Dem now so we're up to 260.

NV and its large Hispanic population will keep NV in the Dem column this year, especially if Trump is the nominee. We're now at 266.

There is no way we are losing all seven of the remaining contested states: CO, FL, IA, IN, NC, NH and OH. Winning any one of those seven puts us at 270 or better. Yeah, IN looks impossible; but we could easily carry 5-6 of the others. I personally think CO is impossible for the Repubs to win but I will keep it as contested just to humor people.

So, if you are a supporter of either candidate who thinks the other candidate will lose us the election, how exactly does that happen? What states from the above lists are going to keep us from 270?

Horse race polls mean nothing in the GE. It's the state polls that matter. I just don't see either Dem candidate losing enough states to fall below 270. It's not going to happen.

[Fearless]

1. If that is true... then it's down to which one, Bernie or Hillary is BETTER for the country

And there is a very clear answer.

[kcjohn1]

2. Too much wildcard

Kerry only won PA by 2 points. Obama only won PA by 5 in 2012.

I could see a scenario in which Trump does better in MI, PA, WI, and the rust belt by widening the gap with white voters with his racism and hitting Clinton/Obama against NAFTA/TPP/China. Look up the 12 results. Obama lost 45+ voters by wide margin. He was saved by young voters (45 and younger) coming out at very good rates. Ask yourself. Are young people going to come out at the same rate for Clinton than Obama?

This GOP year. Dem voter turnout will be naturally lower under the best circustamnces, especially following generational candidate in Obama who drove voters. Black voters won't come out at the same clip. You got candidate in Trump who will get all the angry white voters to come out, especially when he is going to be the "populist" candidate. Nothing is guaranteed. It's probably at best 50/50.

[LonePirate]

4. Clinton's core support is older voters. That will compensate for any downtick from younger voters.

Plus, either Dem candidate probably picks up a few points in states like FL and NC which Obama didn't collect because of his race. Black voter turnout will possibly decrease in those states and elsewhere; but a heavy (and expected) push from Obama might keep those losses to a minimum. Obama is loved by a large majority of Dems and his support will keep the Dem foundation sound regardless of the nominee.

[kcjohn1]

7. Only in the dem race

65+ Consistently vote GOP.

Any white voter who didn't support Obama because of his race, will not support Clinton. Even if she was not running such a race based campaign, she would have tough time penetrating those voters with out and/out racist like Trump.

Love has nothing to do with turnout. Did they stop loving Obama in '10, '14? GOP voters are motivated and their turnout will be on 10 on scale of 10. Honestly I think repeat of '12 Dem turnout will probably still result in a loss.

[SheilaT]

10. Maybe not. Keep in mind that the Boomer generation

is already beginning to die off noticeably. And the Millennial generation, not to mention GenX, outnumber the Boomers. By a lot if you combine those two.

Besides, have you not noticed that polling shows Hillary losing to all Republicans except Rubio, I think. And each new poll shows her farther behind, and Bernie farther ahead.

Plus, this older voter is NOT one of Clinton's core. If she's nominated, I may well say fuck it and not bother to vote for the first time in over forty years. There is zero hope that she will move to the left. Zero. If anything, she will continue a time-honored Democratic tradition of pandering to the Right. She'll cheerfully gut Social Security and Medicare, and with equal cheer bomb every place she can think of. Our military will get plenty of money to fight wars, while wounded soldiers will be utterly ignored. Explain to me just how different this will be from a Republican presidency?

At least with Trump there will be nearly hilarious lack of action, as he hasn't a clue how the government really works, apparently thinks it's a lot like a reality TV show. He'll be amazed to learn he can't fire members of Congress or the Supreme Court, although he'll go through Cabinet appointments like kleenex.

With Bernie a lot of us have begun to hope in a genuinely progressive leader. Without him, why bother.

[LonePirate]

13. As I said in the OP, horse race polling is meaninless. Neither Dem candidate will lose the GE.

[SheilaT]

14. Really?

Why do you think the polling that shows Hillary losing to most Republicans to be meaningless? Or are you just going to say that it is without any facts to back you up?

[LonePirate]

18. They are meaningless because we do not elect a president by popular vote.

Most of the Hillary hate is in red states which are not going to turn blue anyway. The blue states, as a whole, do not hate Hillary as much as some people would like us to believe,

[SheilaT]

19. That's true, and I'm quite opposed to our idiotic electoral college system,

but most of the time the winner of the popular vote does win the Presidency.

But the more essential problem is this: If Hillary is nominated, people who normally don't bother to vote will crawl out of the woodwork to vote against her. I think the degree of how despised she is isn't fully understood, and not at all by her supporters. Her negatives are incredibly high. Do you really, really think that as a whole we will elect someone who is seen as dishonest and untrustworthy?

I don't.

[LonePirate]

20. You asked for facts from me, so where are your facts about people crawling out of the woodwork?

As for the GE, It's trump against either Bernie or Hillary. Both candidates mop the floor with him.

[SheilaT]

21. You have noticed that the most recent polling shows

Hillary losing to Trump, yes? That's not quite mopping the floor with him.

And the hatred of Hillary out there is strong. Her negatives are catastrophic. And in the stratosphere. Okay, so I exaggerate a little, but not by much. I recall way back last year, even before Bernie got in, some one commenting that no one had ever been elected President with the negative rating she had then. And I don't think it's improved.

[exboyfil]

5. If the Democrats lose Pennsylvania

you are right - the race would be over. Actually Obama won Ohio in 2012 only because of the auto bailout. I am expecting it to flip Republican this next go around.

[exboyfil]

3. I would not be so sure of Minnesota or Wisconsin

If you take Obama's 2012 results and flip Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin or Minnesota then you have a 269-269 tie.

Romney won North Carolina in 2012. I don't see that result changing in 2016.

If Clinton is the nominee then NH will be in play as well.


You are right to look at the elector map. I start with the 2012 results. I honestly don't see any Romney states breaking for the Democrats. That is the map I usually start with.

If a VP choice secures either Florida or Ohio, then that is the one that should be made. I know Julian Castro is a popular Hillary Clinton possibility, but does he help in Florida? I suspect if he is the selection he is going to get a second home in the sunshine state.

[LonePirate]

6. MN voted for home state Mondale over Reagan. I am confident MN votes Dem in 2016.

Yes, WI could be tougher but I think we pull off a squeaker at worst.

[exboyfil]

8. They also elected Jesse Ventura as Governor

Kind of sounds a little bit like Trump.

Not long ago Pawlenty and Coleman were statewide office holders as well.

[LonePirate]

12. Obama won MN by 10 and 7 points. It's not going Repub in 2016.

[HooptieWagon]

9. Clinton will absolutely not carry Florida.

I doubt she carries any swing state, and very possibly loses a couple blue ones. She's burned her bridges with the left...peep aren't going to vote for her.
Anecdotal: my fb feed is blowing up with people pledging to vote for Jill Stein if Hillary is the nominee...in a swing state. Wait till the general and look at the Green vote...that's people who Hillary has pissed off.

[MohRokTah]

11. BWAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!

[HooptieWagon]

17. Suit yourself.

[Skwmom]

15. Hmmm.... How often have we heard that this year is unlike any other........

And it is. There is a paradigm shift occurring.

[Eko]

16. Awww,

its a fairy tale isnt it?

[Skwmom]

22. Einstein: Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.

What a great quote. I think it was his way at swatting back at the annoyances.

[Eko]

23. Quoting Einstein

does not make your bad arguments any better.

[Skwmom]

24. Well Eco, we are going to just have to agree to disagree. But I do love that saying.

In fact, I have it framed.

[Eko]

25. Sorry,

not going to agree.

[Half-Century Man]

26. Keeping the Presidency without flipping the Senate is just bragging rights.

We need an overwhelming majority in the Senate. We have to have enough power to force legislation through. We have to get some governance happening.

[cali]

27. Bullshit.

More repubs than dems voted in NH and Iowa

[LonePirate]

28. And neither state is included in the 242.

[DCBob]

31. BS on your BS.. Primary voting trends have little correlation with general election voting.

Applets and Orangutans.

[lapfog_1]

29. bookmarkng this

because I think we could easily lose VA, CO, FL, IN, NC, IA, and OH.

leaving only NH as a toss up.

we got to hope that Trump wins the repuke nomination.

and that we don't destroy one half of our base with this primary war.

Hillary NEEDS the young people and the left. Bernie NEEDs POC and women.

A Cruz Presidency with a repuke congress is the end of the planet... well... the end of the planet fit for humans and current wildlife.

[DCBob]

30. Yes, that's the way I see it too.

It would be difficult for any normal Democrat to lose this election. I think Bernie is the bigger risk given his unusual background.. but I suspect even he could win against whatever RW lunatic the GOP puts up as their nominee.