2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhoops! Looks like Hillary likely won the NV Hispanic vote after all...
One of Saturdays biggest election surprises was the entrance and exit polling measuring Hispanic voters in the Nevada caucus. It found that Bernie Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton by eight percentage points among Hispanic voters, overturning months of conventional wisdom about Mrs. Clintons strength among nonwhites.
But there are a lot of reasons to question the findings from the polls. They have a small sample of precincts and voters, and they simply were not devised to provide precise estimates of the Hispanic vote.
The actual election returns in Las Vegass Clark County hint at a different story. Analyzed neighborhood by neighborhood, they suggest that Mrs. Clinton might have won the Hispanic vote by a comfortable margin. She won about 60 percent of delegates in heavily Hispanic areas, a result that calls the finding of the polling into question.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Turns out her win among Latino/ Latina voters was even bigger: 60-40% in the heavily Latino/a precincts. An ass-whooping, essentially.
Skwmom
(12,685 posts)Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)Statewide patters very similar 08/2016 county by county.
dsc
(52,167 posts)Skwmom
(12,685 posts)PatrynXX
(5,668 posts)Starry Messenger
(32,342 posts)It wasn't even close.
https://twitter.com/carrasquillo/status/701477429726982144
Beacool
(30,253 posts)"Analysis of Clark county precincts w/ most Latinos Clinton won 61.5% to 38.5%."
Starry Messenger
(32,342 posts)about winning the Latino vote. I'm not sure what numbers they were looking at, but their victory lap was very premature.
We should instead look at entrance polls instead of actual results!
Cowpunk
(719 posts)Did everyone have to declare their race when they caucused? The only gauge of Latino turnout we have is the exit polls, which put it at 19% of caucus goers. As the article referenced in the OP states, "Even the majority Hispanic precincts in Nevada have large numbers of non-Hispanic voters, who themselves could have been likelier to support Mrs. Clinton." In the heavily Latino areas where Hillary did well, there is no proof that the caucuses were dominated by Latino voters, so Hillary could still have won those areas even if the majority of Latinos were for Bernie.
Shandris
(3,447 posts)I suppose that things are going just fine for Latinos too. Glad to hear they're happy with society as it is.
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)Shandris
(3,447 posts)No one is surprised really, but it was nice to see it typed out. Thanks.
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)"I suppose that things are going just fine for Latinos too. Glad to hear they're happy with society as it is."
Translation: If only they weren't so clueless, they would have voted for Bernie.
That's Bernsplainin.
PatrynXX
(5,668 posts)Shandris
(3,447 posts)That's called 'projection', brotato. Have a nice day.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Possible interpretations of your statement.
#1 - That everything really is fine with Latinos. And we know that's not true. We Latinos have a lot of things we would like to see done/fixed.
Or
#2 - Latinos are too stupid to vote for the "right" candidate
The first interpretation misrepresents us and the second one insults us. Which are you going with?
Shandris
(3,447 posts)They are voting for the status quo. This is typically done when things are going well. There are smaller problems (as can be expected for literally anyone) but there are no major, systemic problems that need addressing. There is nothing wrong with this stance, but it is what it is.
You may feel the first interpretation misrepresents you and that isn't intentional, but it IS unavoidable. You are voting for the status quo, for the rate of incremental regressivism. There's nothing wrong with that either; it's the basis of the entire Republican Party. I'm not saying you're a Republican (I actually know better), but you are presently siding with them. I find that truly unfortunate, but I'm over the shock of seeing many of the few names I took the time to remember siding with the people who keep trying to silence me.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)We will have a republican House of Representatives until January 2023. They will stop anything too far from status quo.
So your entire line of reasoning here is wrong and wasted.
Shandris
(3,447 posts)However, in keeping to your opinion, it is better to type out the full structure of what you're saying (and, to my knowledge, there is no misrepresentation here).
"We will likely have a Republican-leaning House of Representatives until January of 2023, and that House will likely attempt to stop anything that they perceive as too far ideologically outside of the status quo. I can not see any way personally that they can be convinced or otherwise forced to work with us, nor do I see any way that their numerical advantage can be overcome, and as such I believe your line of reasoning here is incorrect."
I am having trouble with figuring out the meaning behind 'wasted', as typing out comments on a bad rendition of Indra's Net is pretty much a 'waste' any time, or it is effective any time, and whichever your opinion of the two is will generally remain static. As a journalist, I would think you'd find it less on the wasteful side, but opinions do vary (or perhaps that isn't what you meant).
At either rate, it seems we have separate interpretations of events and, while it's likely both of us find the other mystifying on this topic, I'm content to leave it that way. Have a nice day, Steven.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)ThreeWayFanny
(80 posts)wyldwolf
(43,870 posts)It will be repeated for many election years to come and the evidence to the contrary will ignored.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)stopbush
(24,396 posts)MADem
(135,425 posts)Works for me, but then again, I'm with Her!!
PatrynXX
(5,668 posts)it's not about Bernie , bernie is just a name so as long as Clinton keeps attacking the voting public it's just gonna snowball in a bad way.
MADem
(135,425 posts)You don't care a bit about Bernie....he's "just a name." That's why your favorite group is ....could it be? The Bernie Sanders group?
But naaah, he's just a name!!
freebrew
(1,917 posts)MADem
(135,425 posts)Apparently, you can't find your way on your own, so please allow me to help:
https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/
Enjoy!!
freebrew
(1,917 posts)Big Banks - OK, No healthcare - who needs it, War War War...
I won't go there unless it's the only place left.
I've seen her record and who she is.
Why should I read political double speak?
Oh, never mind you apparently don't get it.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)The New York Times have said it: Why Clinton, Not Sanders, Probably Won the Hispanic Vote in Nevada
The Hispanic vote in Nevada is overwhelmingly concentrated in Clark County, home to Las Vegas. In particular, Hispanic voters are concentrated on the east side of the city, where they make up the vast majority of the population but only a slight majority of registered Democrats. (For a rough map, see this tweet.)
In the 76 precincts in Clark County where we believe that a plurality of registered Democrats are Hispanic, Mrs. Clinton defeated Mr. Sanders in the delegate count by a margin of 58 percent to 42 percent. In the smaller number of majority Hispanic precincts, she seemed to win about 60 percent of the delegates, and she won perhaps 65 percent of the delegates in the precincts where Hispanics appeared to be a particularly large share of registered Democrats. (For details on the estimates, see my note at the end of the article.)
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
NWCorona
(8,541 posts)giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)NWCorona
(8,541 posts)Other than him going against his word to stay neutral.
It is what it is.
giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)He called union & casino heads & got them to let their employees off, some paid I believe to go caucus. At no time was anyone told who to vote for as I would guarantee is illegal.
This should be considered a good thing. If more politicians worked toward this it would be a lot easier for ppl to vote.
NWCorona
(8,541 posts)giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)That seems like a good thing.
MADem
(135,425 posts)I looked in here a few times yesterday (I was traveling much of the day) and all I saw was gloom and doom for HRC!!! The Hispanic voters were turning on her!! Bernie had the Latino vote!!!
The folks who were smelling toast didn't realize the bread was in their own toaster...
stopbush
(24,396 posts)MADem
(135,425 posts)Number23
(24,544 posts)That's a classic!!
There was some damn near manic post screaming about how "Hillary's firewall was down" while the voting was still going on and with only about 35% of precincts reporting. I noted in that thread that the web site the person was quoting from looked like it was still being updated! It was no where near conclusive even then.
The desperation from these guys would have been funny if it hadn't been so damn sad too.
giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)the more I am despising this stupid election.
Number23
(24,544 posts)This is one of the most odious political experience I can remember. Damn near as bad as 2008 and that was horrifying, even after the election was over. I can't wait for all of this crap to be over.
Come hang out in AA. I think as a refutation of all of this crap we've been talking alot about comic books and superheroes.
MADem
(135,425 posts)I had to ask for that link while I was sitting in the airport...!
NanceGreggs
(27,819 posts)They're always the most accurate source of information.
DrDan
(20,411 posts)MADem
(135,425 posts)LOL~~~!!!
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)This has been a shitty weekend...
If you're a Sanders supporter.
jkbRN
(850 posts)also, let's not forget the NYT endorsed her.
read between the lines.
Entrance polls are an exact replication of what happened ? Worth noting that the entrance polls had Bernie +2... So yanno...
wildeyed
(11,243 posts)I tried to explain that entrance/exit polls are not fool proof last night, and got my head ripped off for the trouble. Sigh.... It is MATH people. Doesn't matter if you like it or don't like it. It is what it is. MATH!
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)Gothmog
(145,627 posts)MADem
(135,425 posts)Kip Humphrey
(4,753 posts)Tarc
(10,476 posts)MrWendel
(1,881 posts)WHAT?!?
Not even close.
stupidicus
(2,570 posts)are HC supporters in the process of writing their own dictionary?
FrenchieCat
(68,867 posts)But they since changed it to something more definitive.....
check at the link!
stupidicus
(2,570 posts)William769
(55,148 posts)Bohemianwriter
(978 posts)a fully functional democracy, then by all means...
I think international observers should start monitoring the different polling stations to make sure it's met to standards soon if this freakshow is allowed to continue...
sister_rosa_refried
(447 posts)Bohemianwriter
(978 posts)in action!
It's hilarious...
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)but by any means...........
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)he would not have lost the state by 5.5%.
sister_rosa_refried
(447 posts)I've seen online polls that say the other.
NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)I thought the original "results" (largely from entrance polls) were iffy to say the least.
passiveporcupine
(8,175 posts)the assumption that the polls "might" be wrong are based on historical polls, not on any factual evidence that this poll was wrong.
Even the guy who proposed this "theory" that the exit poll "might" be wrong has admitted it based on old polls.
Cryptoad
(8,254 posts)but the wind is at his back...the more people find out about Bern the more they dislike him!
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)There aren't nearly as many voters for a caucus as for a primary. You can affect a caucus easier by flooding it with college students being promised free stuff. And, college students did flock to the caucus. Yet, Bernie still lost. A very bad omen for Bernie's chances IMO.
Boldine
(86 posts)and yes Clark County does have the higher %age of Hispanic residents in the state, however for the most part Bernie did better outside Clark County.
As for the Hispanic vote, CBS shows Bernie being more popular, with Hillary being more popular with the Black voters.
http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2016/primaries/democrat/nevada/exit/
However, as with any polls there is more to it than asking a few people walking in and out to vote - you need a good sampling and there wasn't one.
stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)Gamecock Lefty
(700 posts)Didn't Bernie win Time Magazine's Person of the Year online poll??? Well there you have it - just like he won the Latino vote yesterday - the exit polls said so!!!
What a difference a caucus makes!
Gotta say it, folks, but I love me some Hillary Clinton!
Raise Hill 2016!
jillan
(39,451 posts)But there are a lot of reasons to question the findings from the polls. They have a small sample of precincts and voters, and they simply were not devised to provide precise estimates of the Hispanic vote.
MADem
(135,425 posts)This is not an "opinion piece," it's a "polling analysis" piece. There's a lot of "there" there. Taking two paragraphs from this rather wide ranging article doesn't show the full picture.
See, here's two more paragraphs:
There is not much evidence, though, that Mrs. Clinton won Hispanic voters by the sort of landslide margin that she did eight years ago. Thats a good sign for Mr. Sanders, who needs to make up for the huge swing among black voters, who have gone from uniformly for President Obama to uniformly for Mrs. Clinton.
A little something for everyone, eh? Here's two more:
In the 76 precincts in Clark County where we believe that a plurality of registered Democrats are Hispanic, Mrs. Clinton defeated Mr. Sanders in the delegate count by a margin of 58 percent to 42 percent. In the smaller number of majority Hispanic precincts, she seemed to win about 60 percent of the delegates, and she won perhaps 65 percent of the delegates in the precincts where Hispanics appeared to be a particularly large share of registered Democrats. (For details on the estimates, see my note at the end of the article.)
ThreeWayFanny
(80 posts)Persondem
(1,936 posts)Nanjeanne
(4,988 posts)If you reject the entrance and exit polling - then it's also reasonable to reject the idea that just because Hillary won a certain area by a large percentage point it means nothing.
Hillary supporters claim she won the over 40 voter and the black voters. How do they know that? Oh . . . the entrance polls show it.
Seems we either accept entrance and exit polls are not very accurate - or they may not be accurate but they give a snapshot in time. Can't be both can it? Bad when it's Sanders' statistics but good when it's Clinton's.
DemonGoddess
(4,640 posts)Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)The entry-exit poll was conducted of 1024 people http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-nevada-democratic-caucus-entrance-poll-analysis/story?id=37077053
The confidence with which it predicted how the vote turned out was very high.
However, analyzing small subgroups within the 1024 causes the confidence to go down significantly. The entry exit poll says it found Latinos were a little less than 2 in 10 participants. They would then try to get about that percentage of participants in the poll so their poll would represent the voters in the caucus accurately. That means somewhere south of 205 Latinos were polled. Because that number is so small, the error rate is very high.
This is the same issue we had with a poll early on in the race where a poll didn't list folks under 30 or so as a subgroup of its poll. They had voters in that category, but not enough to assert that they were at all representative of that age group. Sanders supporters then created a conspiracy that said that poll didn't have anyone under 30 in it. Which was not correct. That polling agency didn't report any analysis of that group because they felt it wouldn't have any accuracy to it.
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)as reported by others
mhatrw
(10,786 posts)Last edited Mon Feb 22, 2016, 01:23 AM - Edit history (1)
Where did you get your numbers?
merrily
(45,251 posts)mhatrw
(10,786 posts)Last edited Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:24 PM - Edit history (1)
1. The entrance/exit polls were flawed.
2. The caucus system apportionment of delegates in Clark County precincts with a high number of Latino voters does not accurately model the actual Latino popular vote for the entire state of Nevada.
3. A combination of 1 & 2.
I'd say that possibility 2 is far more likely than possibility 1, but factor 3 cannot be ruled out (with factor 2 being the greatest factor in explaining the poll vs. highly Latino Clark County precinct delegate discrepancy).
Here's why. Entrance and exit polling simply asked self-identified Latinos who they planned on voting for and recorded the results. While sampling models are only as accurate as how representative they are of the entire population they are attempting to model, there is nothing anyone has presented about the methodology used that would explain why it was clearly unrepresentative.
On the other hand, assuming the allocation of delegates of highly Latino Clark County precincts is more representative of the individual voter preferences of the Latino population of the entire state of Nevada requires a myriad of tenuous assumptions:
1) the caucus apportionment of county delegates actually accurately reflects the popular vote of each precinct.
This is an extremely tenuous assumption, especially for precincts that award a small number of delegates. The apportionment for each precinct was preselected and had nothing to do with the actual turnout at each precinct. In addition, if say 6 delegates were to be awarded for a certain precinct a 3 to 3 apportionment for each candidate could represent anything from 58.3% popular vote for Sanders to a 58.3% popular vote for Clinton.
2) the caucus apportionment of county delegates actually in "heavily Hispanic" neighborhoods accurately reflects the popular vote of Latinos in these neighborhoods.
This is an even more tenuous assumption, for both the reasons outlined above, and more importantly because we have no information on the voting preferences nor the relative turnout of any non-Latino voters residing in these precincts.
3) Latinos who live in "heavily Hispanic" Clark County neighborhoods are representative of all Latinos who live in Nevada.
This is yet another extremely improbable assumption because it assumes that the already tenuously assumed voting preferences of the subset of urban Latinos who live in highly heavily Hispanic neighborhoods in just Clark County is actually representative of the voting preferences of all Latinos in Nevada regardless of the cultural, racial, generational, linguistic, and economic demographics of their actual neighborhoods as well as their population density, agricultural and industrial profiles.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)ThreeWayFanny
(80 posts)ericson00
(2,707 posts)which probably has a much bigger MoE than exit polls at an election, it's probably in line with the statistics that she won it. Anyway, a win is a win is a win!
jfern
(5,204 posts)They aren't just in a few highly Hispanic neighborhoods. And they aren't some monolith. Those neighborhoods (which include non Hispanics) likely vote different than the Hispanics elsewhere in the state.
FrenchieCat
(68,867 posts)It now it reads.... "NO, THE POLLING DOESN'T PROVE BERNIE SANDERS WON THE HISPANIC VOTE IN NEVADA"