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Tarc

(10,476 posts)
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 03:35 PM Feb 2016

Whoops! Looks like Hillary likely won the NV Hispanic vote after all...

Why Clinton, Not Sanders, Probably Won the Hispanic Vote in Nevada

One of Saturday’s biggest election surprises was the entrance and exit polling measuring Hispanic voters in the Nevada caucus. It found that Bernie Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton by eight percentage points among Hispanic voters, overturning months of conventional wisdom about Mrs. Clinton’s strength among nonwhites.

But there are a lot of reasons to question the findings from the polls. They have a small sample of precincts and voters, and they simply were not devised to provide precise estimates of the Hispanic vote.

The actual election returns in Las Vegas’s Clark County hint at a different story. Analyzed neighborhood by neighborhood, they suggest that Mrs. Clinton might have won the Hispanic vote by a comfortable margin. She won about 60 percent of delegates in heavily Hispanic areas, a result that calls the finding of the polling into question.




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Whoops! Looks like Hillary likely won the NV Hispanic vote after all... (Original Post) Tarc Feb 2016 OP
K&R mcar Feb 2016 #1
She kicked Sanders ass in Clark County 55-45 alcibiades_mystery Feb 2016 #2
That chaotic mess sure served its purpose. No wonder they didn't register all voters...... Skwmom Feb 2016 #4
Clark County 08, Clinton 54 Obama 44. Same margin. Bluenorthwest Feb 2016 #18
and she won Hispanics then too dsc Feb 2016 #41
Can we trust those results? No. Skwmom Feb 2016 #3
DNC results? lol big no n/t PatrynXX Feb 2016 #35
By a huge amount. Starry Messenger Feb 2016 #5
Impressive. Beacool Feb 2016 #14
Hopefully the Sanders campaign will retract their press release Starry Messenger Feb 2016 #16
No! HillDawg Feb 2016 #6
To what actual results are you referring? Cowpunk Feb 2016 #55
Congratulations to Hillary. Shandris Feb 2016 #7
Bernsplainin wont help the cause CorkySt.Clair Feb 2016 #22
So yours is the side pushing that toxic tripe. Shandris Feb 2016 #28
Your words CorkySt.Clair Feb 2016 #30
+1 :( PatrynXX Feb 2016 #36
Oh, okay, now I get it. You're simply incapable of seeing any other translation. Shandris Feb 2016 #51
You haven't even tried to provide another explanation. There really are only two stevenleser Feb 2016 #70
Clearly I was going with number one. Shandris Feb 2016 #72
There is no non-status quo option this year. We get status quo no matter who we elect stevenleser Feb 2016 #75
You are fully welcome to your opinion. Shandris Feb 2016 #85
It's not an opinion. nt stevenleser Feb 2016 #90
"Bernsplaing" - I like that! eom ThreeWayFanny Feb 2016 #89
too late. 'Bernie won the latino vote' is already part of 'progressive' mythology wyldwolf Feb 2016 #8
They're in a bubble. nt Cali_Democrat Feb 2016 #11
It doesn't help BS to imagine he has support where he does not. stopbush Feb 2016 #19
Shhhhh! Let them have their fun! MADem Feb 2016 #25
fortunately I'm not that sefish. I'm with America PatrynXX Feb 2016 #37
Yeah, SURE, I believe that...! MADem Feb 2016 #42
And yet, still no reasons to vote for her...nt freebrew Feb 2016 #62
You've already been told where to go. MADem Feb 2016 #64
She has no plan any different from the Rs... freebrew Feb 2016 #67
Hillary Clinton supporters who have been paying attention, know this. BlueCaliDem Feb 2016 #9
DU rec...nt SidDithers Feb 2016 #10
Thanks to Harry Reid NWCorona Feb 2016 #12
Not a bad thing, you realize he's a dem right? giftedgirl77 Feb 2016 #77
I don't blame Harry for the moves he made NWCorona Feb 2016 #79
He didn't just get HRC supporters released from work. giftedgirl77 Feb 2016 #81
As long as it's even handed. NWCorona Feb 2016 #83
All he did was get them to release them. giftedgirl77 Feb 2016 #84
Good thing those caucusers didn't read DU! MADem Feb 2016 #13
Not in the Hillary Group you didn't. stopbush Feb 2016 #21
No--I'm talking about the Latest Page. nt MADem Feb 2016 #23
"The folks who were smelling toast didn't realize the bread was in their own toaster..." Number23 Feb 2016 #48
The more I see us talked about like nothing more than chess pieces giftedgirl77 Feb 2016 #53
Girl, join the FREAKING club Number23 Feb 2016 #56
I think that was the link to the ABC live polling.... MADem Feb 2016 #65
Aren't there any on-line polls we can look to? NanceGreggs Feb 2016 #15
the BS-supporters have a pretty good grasp of reality as well - we could ask them DrDan Feb 2016 #24
And the DU polls, why, they're the best! MADem Feb 2016 #26
The last false meme dies CorkySt.Clair Feb 2016 #17
"Why" & "Probably" implies a justification of an opinion, not a dissemination of the facts jkbRN Feb 2016 #20
Sooooo HillDawg Feb 2016 #27
Right? wildeyed Feb 2016 #97
Hillary won the Hispanic vote and Will Ferrell. :-) Alfresco Feb 2016 #29
Texas will confirm Clinton's strength with Latino voters Gothmog Feb 2016 #31
Creo que sí. MADem Feb 2016 #49
LOL Iliyah Feb 2016 #32
So Bernie won the black vote in Nevada! Kip Humphrey Feb 2016 #33
Um, no, he didn't. Sander lost the NV black vote 76-22 Tarc Feb 2016 #38
LMAO! MrWendel Feb 2016 #54
+1 bravenak Feb 2016 #74
He didn't Tarc Feb 2016 #76
... rbrnmw Feb 2016 #94
how do you define "probably"? stupidicus Feb 2016 #34
It was the New Time Headline.... FrenchieCat Feb 2016 #92
which link? stupidicus Feb 2016 #99
Kick & very highly recommended! William769 Feb 2016 #39
If you call the sircus in Nevada.. Bohemianwriter Feb 2016 #40
What is a "sircus", dear? sister_rosa_refried Feb 2016 #46
Welcome to "Democracy"... Bohemianwriter Feb 2016 #47
I hear that she got a boost from Twitter azurnoir Feb 2016 #43
pretty simple as a matter of math--if Sanders won Latinos by 8 and also won white voters, geek tragedy Feb 2016 #44
That's a lot of hooey, dear. sister_rosa_refried Feb 2016 #45
K&R NastyRiffraff Feb 2016 #50
Whooops! Looks like Bernie did afterall. passiveporcupine Feb 2016 #52
HRC won by 6 pts not 5 Cryptoad Feb 2016 #57
Yesterday was a bad day for Bernie Trust Buster Feb 2016 #68
There is more to Nevada than Clark County Boldine Feb 2016 #58
K&R! stonecutter357 Feb 2016 #59
Wait a minute . . . Gamecock Lefty Feb 2016 #60
Link to the actual results, not to an opinion piece?? And I quote: jillan Feb 2016 #61
If you quote, you need to link. MADem Feb 2016 #71
Thanks! eom ThreeWayFanny Feb 2016 #93
Yep, saw this yesterday. Thank you for posting K & R nt Persondem Feb 2016 #63
Let's face it - w/caucus it's impossible to know results Nanjeanne Feb 2016 #66
K&R! DemonGoddess Feb 2016 #69
so basically we can't trust anything about the Nevada results... Fast Walker 52 Feb 2016 #73
Nope, that's a straw man. It's actually very simple stevenleser Feb 2016 #78
fair enough, but I was referring to the general chaos of the caucuses Fast Walker 52 Feb 2016 #96
The margin of error rate is still under 7.5% for just 200 polled. mhatrw Feb 2016 #98
Reason to question, "hint" etc. means Hillary won? LOL! Ok merrily Feb 2016 #80
There are three possibilities. mhatrw Feb 2016 #82
See my #78 above. It's much simpler than that. Nt stevenleser Feb 2016 #95
K & R eom ThreeWayFanny Feb 2016 #86
just the fact that it was an entrance poll at a caucus ericson00 Feb 2016 #87
28% of Nevada is Hispanic jfern Feb 2016 #88
NYT actually changed its headline.... FrenchieCat Feb 2016 #91
 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
2. She kicked Sanders ass in Clark County 55-45
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 03:38 PM
Feb 2016

Turns out her win among Latino/ Latina voters was even bigger: 60-40% in the heavily Latino/a precincts. An ass-whooping, essentially.

 

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)
18. Clark County 08, Clinton 54 Obama 44. Same margin.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 03:52 PM
Feb 2016

Statewide patters very similar 08/2016 county by county.

Starry Messenger

(32,342 posts)
16. Hopefully the Sanders campaign will retract their press release
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 03:50 PM
Feb 2016

about winning the Latino vote. I'm not sure what numbers they were looking at, but their victory lap was very premature.

Cowpunk

(719 posts)
55. To what actual results are you referring?
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 05:23 PM
Feb 2016

Did everyone have to declare their race when they caucused? The only gauge of Latino turnout we have is the exit polls, which put it at 19% of caucus goers. As the article referenced in the OP states, "Even the majority Hispanic precincts in Nevada have large numbers of non-Hispanic voters, who themselves could have been likelier to support Mrs. Clinton." In the heavily Latino areas where Hillary did well, there is no proof that the caucuses were dominated by Latino voters, so Hillary could still have won those areas even if the majority of Latinos were for Bernie.

 

Shandris

(3,447 posts)
7. Congratulations to Hillary.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 03:42 PM
Feb 2016

I suppose that things are going just fine for Latinos too. Glad to hear they're happy with society as it is.

 

Shandris

(3,447 posts)
28. So yours is the side pushing that toxic tripe.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 03:57 PM
Feb 2016

No one is surprised really, but it was nice to see it typed out. Thanks.

 

CorkySt.Clair

(1,507 posts)
30. Your words
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 03:59 PM
Feb 2016

"I suppose that things are going just fine for Latinos too. Glad to hear they're happy with society as it is."


Translation: If only they weren't so clueless, they would have voted for Bernie.

That's Bernsplainin.

 

Shandris

(3,447 posts)
51. Oh, okay, now I get it. You're simply incapable of seeing any other translation.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 05:08 PM
Feb 2016

That's called 'projection', brotato. Have a nice day.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
70. You haven't even tried to provide another explanation. There really are only two
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 06:15 PM
Feb 2016

Possible interpretations of your statement.

#1 - That everything really is fine with Latinos. And we know that's not true. We Latinos have a lot of things we would like to see done/fixed.
Or

#2 - Latinos are too stupid to vote for the "right" candidate

The first interpretation misrepresents us and the second one insults us. Which are you going with?

 

Shandris

(3,447 posts)
72. Clearly I was going with number one.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 06:28 PM
Feb 2016

They are voting for the status quo. This is typically done when things are going well. There are smaller problems (as can be expected for literally anyone) but there are no major, systemic problems that need addressing. There is nothing wrong with this stance, but it is what it is.

You may feel the first interpretation misrepresents you and that isn't intentional, but it IS unavoidable. You are voting for the status quo, for the rate of incremental regressivism. There's nothing wrong with that either; it's the basis of the entire Republican Party. I'm not saying you're a Republican (I actually know better), but you are presently siding with them. I find that truly unfortunate, but I'm over the shock of seeing many of the few names I took the time to remember siding with the people who keep trying to silence me.



 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
75. There is no non-status quo option this year. We get status quo no matter who we elect
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 07:34 PM
Feb 2016

We will have a republican House of Representatives until January 2023. They will stop anything too far from status quo.

So your entire line of reasoning here is wrong and wasted.

 

Shandris

(3,447 posts)
85. You are fully welcome to your opinion.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:16 PM
Feb 2016

However, in keeping to your opinion, it is better to type out the full structure of what you're saying (and, to my knowledge, there is no misrepresentation here).

"We will likely have a Republican-leaning House of Representatives until January of 2023, and that House will likely attempt to stop anything that they perceive as too far ideologically outside of the status quo. I can not see any way personally that they can be convinced or otherwise forced to work with us, nor do I see any way that their numerical advantage can be overcome, and as such I believe your line of reasoning here is incorrect."

I am having trouble with figuring out the meaning behind 'wasted', as typing out comments on a bad rendition of Indra's Net is pretty much a 'waste' any time, or it is effective any time, and whichever your opinion of the two is will generally remain static. As a journalist, I would think you'd find it less on the wasteful side, but opinions do vary (or perhaps that isn't what you meant).

At either rate, it seems we have separate interpretations of events and, while it's likely both of us find the other mystifying on this topic, I'm content to leave it that way. Have a nice day, Steven.

wyldwolf

(43,870 posts)
8. too late. 'Bernie won the latino vote' is already part of 'progressive' mythology
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 03:42 PM
Feb 2016

It will be repeated for many election years to come and the evidence to the contrary will ignored.

PatrynXX

(5,668 posts)
37. fortunately I'm not that sefish. I'm with America
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 04:44 PM
Feb 2016

it's not about Bernie , bernie is just a name so as long as Clinton keeps attacking the voting public it's just gonna snowball in a bad way.

MADem

(135,425 posts)
42. Yeah, SURE, I believe that...!
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 04:55 PM
Feb 2016

You don't care a bit about Bernie....he's "just a name." That's why your favorite group is ....could it be? The Bernie Sanders group?

But naaah, he's just a name!!


MADem

(135,425 posts)
64. You've already been told where to go.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 05:59 PM
Feb 2016

Apparently, you can't find your way on your own, so please allow me to help:

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/


Enjoy!!

freebrew

(1,917 posts)
67. She has no plan any different from the Rs...
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 06:08 PM
Feb 2016

Big Banks - OK, No healthcare - who needs it, War War War...

I won't go there unless it's the only place left.
I've seen her record and who she is.
Why should I read political double speak?

Oh, never mind you apparently don't get it.

BlueCaliDem

(15,438 posts)
9. Hillary Clinton supporters who have been paying attention, know this.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 03:43 PM
Feb 2016

The New York Times have said it: Why Clinton, Not Sanders, Probably Won the Hispanic Vote in Nevada

Clinton Won Heavily Hispanic Areas

The Hispanic vote in Nevada is overwhelmingly concentrated in Clark County, home to Las Vegas. In particular, Hispanic voters are concentrated on the east side of the city, where they make up the vast majority of the population but only a slight majority of registered Democrats. (For a rough map, see this tweet.)

In the 76 precincts in Clark County where we believe that a plurality of registered Democrats are Hispanic, Mrs. Clinton defeated Mr. Sanders in the delegate count by a margin of 58 percent to 42 percent. In the smaller number of majority Hispanic precincts, she seemed to win about 60 percent of the delegates, and she won perhaps 65 percent of the delegates in the precincts where Hispanics appeared to be a particularly large share of registered Democrats. (For details on the estimates, see my note at the end of the article.)

NWCorona

(8,541 posts)
79. I don't blame Harry for the moves he made
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 07:46 PM
Feb 2016

Other than him going against his word to stay neutral.
It is what it is.

 

giftedgirl77

(4,713 posts)
81. He didn't just get HRC supporters released from work.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 07:52 PM
Feb 2016

He called union & casino heads & got them to let their employees off, some paid I believe to go caucus. At no time was anyone told who to vote for as I would guarantee is illegal.

This should be considered a good thing. If more politicians worked toward this it would be a lot easier for ppl to vote.

MADem

(135,425 posts)
13. Good thing those caucusers didn't read DU!
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 03:46 PM
Feb 2016

I looked in here a few times yesterday (I was traveling much of the day) and all I saw was gloom and doom for HRC!!! The Hispanic voters were turning on her!! Bernie had the Latino vote!!!

The folks who were smelling toast didn't realize the bread was in their own toaster...

Number23

(24,544 posts)
48. "The folks who were smelling toast didn't realize the bread was in their own toaster..."
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 05:03 PM
Feb 2016

That's a classic!!

There was some damn near manic post screaming about how "Hillary's firewall was down" while the voting was still going on and with only about 35% of precincts reporting. I noted in that thread that the web site the person was quoting from looked like it was still being updated! It was no where near conclusive even then.

The desperation from these guys would have been funny if it hadn't been so damn sad too.

 

giftedgirl77

(4,713 posts)
53. The more I see us talked about like nothing more than chess pieces
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 05:16 PM
Feb 2016

the more I am despising this stupid election.

Number23

(24,544 posts)
56. Girl, join the FREAKING club
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 05:27 PM
Feb 2016

This is one of the most odious political experience I can remember. Damn near as bad as 2008 and that was horrifying, even after the election was over. I can't wait for all of this crap to be over.

Come hang out in AA. I think as a refutation of all of this crap we've been talking alot about comic books and superheroes.

MADem

(135,425 posts)
65. I think that was the link to the ABC live polling....
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 06:00 PM
Feb 2016

I had to ask for that link while I was sitting in the airport...!

NanceGreggs

(27,819 posts)
15. Aren't there any on-line polls we can look to?
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 03:48 PM
Feb 2016

They're always the most accurate source of information.

jkbRN

(850 posts)
20. "Why" & "Probably" implies a justification of an opinion, not a dissemination of the facts
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 03:53 PM
Feb 2016

also, let's not forget the NYT endorsed her.

read between the lines.

 

HillDawg

(198 posts)
27. Sooooo
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 03:57 PM
Feb 2016

Entrance polls are an exact replication of what happened ? Worth noting that the entrance polls had Bernie +2... So yanno...

wildeyed

(11,243 posts)
97. Right?
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:57 PM
Feb 2016

I tried to explain that entrance/exit polls are not fool proof last night, and got my head ripped off for the trouble. Sigh.... It is MATH people. Doesn't matter if you like it or don't like it. It is what it is. MATH!

FrenchieCat

(68,867 posts)
92. It was the New Time Headline....
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:45 PM
Feb 2016

But they since changed it to something more definitive.....

check at the link!

 

Bohemianwriter

(978 posts)
40. If you call the sircus in Nevada..
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 04:47 PM
Feb 2016

a fully functional democracy, then by all means...

I think international observers should start monitoring the different polling stations to make sure it's met to standards soon if this freakshow is allowed to continue...

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
44. pretty simple as a matter of math--if Sanders won Latinos by 8 and also won white voters,
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 04:56 PM
Feb 2016

he would not have lost the state by 5.5%.

passiveporcupine

(8,175 posts)
52. Whooops! Looks like Bernie did afterall.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 05:15 PM
Feb 2016

the assumption that the polls "might" be wrong are based on historical polls, not on any factual evidence that this poll was wrong.

Even the guy who proposed this "theory" that the exit poll "might" be wrong has admitted it based on old polls.

Cryptoad

(8,254 posts)
57. HRC won by 6 pts not 5
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 05:42 PM
Feb 2016

but the wind is at his back...the more people find out about Bern the more they dislike him!

 

Trust Buster

(7,299 posts)
68. Yesterday was a bad day for Bernie
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 06:11 PM
Feb 2016

There aren't nearly as many voters for a caucus as for a primary. You can affect a caucus easier by flooding it with college students being promised free stuff. And, college students did flock to the caucus. Yet, Bernie still lost. A very bad omen for Bernie's chances IMO.

Boldine

(86 posts)
58. There is more to Nevada than Clark County
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 05:51 PM
Feb 2016

and yes Clark County does have the higher %age of Hispanic residents in the state, however for the most part Bernie did better outside Clark County.

As for the Hispanic vote, CBS shows Bernie being more popular, with Hillary being more popular with the Black voters.

http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2016/primaries/democrat/nevada/exit/

However, as with any polls there is more to it than asking a few people walking in and out to vote - you need a good sampling and there wasn't one.

Gamecock Lefty

(700 posts)
60. Wait a minute . . .
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 05:52 PM
Feb 2016

Didn't Bernie win Time Magazine's Person of the Year online poll??? Well there you have it - just like he won the Latino vote yesterday - the exit polls said so!!!

What a difference a caucus makes!

Gotta say it, folks, but I love me some Hillary Clinton!

Raise Hill 2016!

jillan

(39,451 posts)
61. Link to the actual results, not to an opinion piece?? And I quote:
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 05:53 PM
Feb 2016
One of Saturday’s biggest election surprises was the entrance and exit polling measuring Hispanic voters in the Nevada caucus. It found that Bernie Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton by eight percentage points among Hispanic voters, overturning months of conventional wisdom about Mrs. Clinton’s strength among nonwhites.

But there are a lot of reasons to question the findings from the polls. They have a small sample of precincts and voters, and they simply were not devised to provide precise estimates of the Hispanic vote.

MADem

(135,425 posts)
71. If you quote, you need to link.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 06:15 PM
Feb 2016
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/22/upshot/why-clinton-not-sanders-probably-won-the-hispanic-vote-in-nevada.html


This is not an "opinion piece," it's a "polling analysis" piece. There's a lot of "there" there. Taking two paragraphs from this rather wide ranging article doesn't show the full picture.


See, here's two more paragraphs:

The actual election returns in Las Vegas’s Clark County hint at a different story. Analyzed neighborhood by neighborhood, they suggest that Mrs. Clinton might have won the Hispanic vote by a comfortable margin. She won about 60 percent of delegates in heavily Hispanic areas, a result that calls the finding of the polling into question.

There is not much evidence, though, that Mrs. Clinton won Hispanic voters by the sort of landslide margin that she did eight years ago. That’s a good sign for Mr. Sanders, who needs to make up for the huge swing among black voters, who have gone from uniformly for President Obama to uniformly for Mrs. Clinton.



A little something for everyone, eh? Here's two more:

The Hispanic vote in Nevada is overwhelmingly concentrated in Clark County, home to Las Vegas. In particular, Hispanic voters are concentrated on the east side of the city, where they make up the vast majority of the population but only a slight majority of registered Democrats. (For a rough map, see this tweet.)

In the 76 precincts in Clark County where we believe that a plurality of registered Democrats are Hispanic, Mrs. Clinton defeated Mr. Sanders in the delegate count by a margin of 58 percent to 42 percent. In the smaller number of majority Hispanic precincts, she seemed to win about 60 percent of the delegates, and she won perhaps 65 percent of the delegates in the precincts where Hispanics appeared to be a particularly large share of registered Democrats. (For details on the estimates, see my note at the end of the article.)



Nanjeanne

(4,988 posts)
66. Let's face it - w/caucus it's impossible to know results
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 06:07 PM
Feb 2016

If you reject the entrance and exit polling - then it's also reasonable to reject the idea that just because Hillary won a certain area by a large percentage point it means nothing.

Hillary supporters claim she won the over 40 voter and the black voters. How do they know that? Oh . . . the entrance polls show it.

Seems we either accept entrance and exit polls are not very accurate - or they may not be accurate but they give a snapshot in time. Can't be both can it? Bad when it's Sanders' statistics but good when it's Clinton's.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
78. Nope, that's a straw man. It's actually very simple
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 07:46 PM
Feb 2016

The entry-exit poll was conducted of 1024 people http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-nevada-democratic-caucus-entrance-poll-analysis/story?id=37077053

The confidence with which it predicted how the vote turned out was very high.

However, analyzing small subgroups within the 1024 causes the confidence to go down significantly. The entry exit poll says it found Latinos were a little less than 2 in 10 participants. They would then try to get about that percentage of participants in the poll so their poll would represent the voters in the caucus accurately. That means somewhere south of 205 Latinos were polled. Because that number is so small, the error rate is very high.

This is the same issue we had with a poll early on in the race where a poll didn't list folks under 30 or so as a subgroup of its poll. They had voters in that category, but not enough to assert that they were at all representative of that age group. Sanders supporters then created a conspiracy that said that poll didn't have anyone under 30 in it. Which was not correct. That polling agency didn't report any analysis of that group because they felt it wouldn't have any accuracy to it.

mhatrw

(10,786 posts)
98. The margin of error rate is still under 7.5% for just 200 polled.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 10:47 PM
Feb 2016

Last edited Mon Feb 22, 2016, 01:23 AM - Edit history (1)

Where did you get your numbers?

mhatrw

(10,786 posts)
82. There are three possibilities.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 07:59 PM
Feb 2016

Last edited Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:24 PM - Edit history (1)

1. The entrance/exit polls were flawed.

2. The caucus system apportionment of delegates in Clark County precincts with a high number of Latino voters does not accurately model the actual Latino popular vote for the entire state of Nevada.

3. A combination of 1 & 2.

I'd say that possibility 2 is far more likely than possibility 1, but factor 3 cannot be ruled out (with factor 2 being the greatest factor in explaining the poll vs. highly Latino Clark County precinct delegate discrepancy).

Here's why. Entrance and exit polling simply asked self-identified Latinos who they planned on voting for and recorded the results. While sampling models are only as accurate as how representative they are of the entire population they are attempting to model, there is nothing anyone has presented about the methodology used that would explain why it was clearly unrepresentative.

On the other hand, assuming the allocation of delegates of highly Latino Clark County precincts is more representative of the individual voter preferences of the Latino population of the entire state of Nevada requires a myriad of tenuous assumptions:

1) the caucus apportionment of county delegates actually accurately reflects the popular vote of each precinct.

This is an extremely tenuous assumption, especially for precincts that award a small number of delegates. The apportionment for each precinct was preselected and had nothing to do with the actual turnout at each precinct. In addition, if say 6 delegates were to be awarded for a certain precinct a 3 to 3 apportionment for each candidate could represent anything from 58.3% popular vote for Sanders to a 58.3% popular vote for Clinton.

2) the caucus apportionment of county delegates actually in "heavily Hispanic" neighborhoods accurately reflects the popular vote of Latinos in these neighborhoods.

This is an even more tenuous assumption, for both the reasons outlined above, and more importantly because we have no information on the voting preferences nor the relative turnout of any non-Latino voters residing in these precincts.

3) Latinos who live in "heavily Hispanic" Clark County neighborhoods are representative of all Latinos who live in Nevada.

This is yet another extremely improbable assumption because it assumes that the already tenuously assumed voting preferences of the subset of urban Latinos who live in highly heavily Hispanic neighborhoods in just Clark County is actually representative of the voting preferences of all Latinos in Nevada regardless of the cultural, racial, generational, linguistic, and economic demographics of their actual neighborhoods as well as their population density, agricultural and industrial profiles.

 

ericson00

(2,707 posts)
87. just the fact that it was an entrance poll at a caucus
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:36 PM
Feb 2016

which probably has a much bigger MoE than exit polls at an election, it's probably in line with the statistics that she won it. Anyway, a win is a win is a win!

jfern

(5,204 posts)
88. 28% of Nevada is Hispanic
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:36 PM
Feb 2016

They aren't just in a few highly Hispanic neighborhoods. And they aren't some monolith. Those neighborhoods (which include non Hispanics) likely vote different than the Hispanics elsewhere in the state.

FrenchieCat

(68,867 posts)
91. NYT actually changed its headline....
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:43 PM
Feb 2016

It now it reads.... "NO, THE POLLING DOESN'T PROVE BERNIE SANDERS WON THE HISPANIC VOTE IN NEVADA"

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