Don't fall for Super Tuesday Meme Coming Out Of Hillary Camp

[kcjohn1]

They have already started, but I'm pretty sure its going to get more intense as we get closer. She and her surrogates will try to argue Super Tuesday is going to be make/break for this primary. They will point to historical precedent (except 08 of course) that Super Tuesday basically decides the election and everything afterwards is an after thought. Here is why you shouldn't believe it.

1) Super Tuesday this year will have substantially less. States voting will only make up ~20% of the total delegates. 08 it was ~50% and had 22 states vs 11 this year.

2) These states are primarily in the South with heavy AA. If the pattern holds where Clinton loses Whites/Latinos, and Sanders loses AA votes heavily, than this 20% is his worst 20%. Outside of the momentum, it make strategic sense to have your worst states go first because it allows you to build your message to the most receptive voters.

3) The last 25% of the delegates is hugely favorable. You have bunch of rural and white states + the mammoth that is California. IMO he can make up the loses in the SEC states in these primaries.

The challenge is usually money. The Hillary campaign will try to demotivate Bernie supporters, and that didn't work when Sanders was @3%, and hopefully it won't work after Super Tuesday.

[onehandle]

1. She's already far ahead.

Super Tuesday will just be icing on the cake.

[kcjohn1]

2. 51-50 is far ahead?

[dchill]

78. It's 51 to 51. So she's WAY ahead by 0!

I'm in a 2008 timewarp.

[GoneFishin]

96. Yes. But this is the ultimate proof that they will spew any old shit, no matter how disconnected

it is from reality.

So you can pretty much assume everything else that they say makes just about as much sense.

[Lucinda]

117. She is one up...they awarded the last NV delegate.

[think]

6. Far ahead in super delegates. Ordinary delegates and the actual votes. Not so much.....

[LonePirate]

13. Unfortunately, that is only true until SC votes.

[localroger]

43. After SC she will probably be ahead 80 to 70 or so.

That is not a commanding lead. It is not even a significant lead at this point in the contest.

[LonePirate]

45. My mistake. I thought there were more than 53 delegates at stake in SC. ~30/~20 split seems likely.

[JohnnyRingo]

100. Be realistic

Do you really think Bernie's going to sweep the south?

I know he's up against the wife of the former governor of Arkansas and recent senator from NY, but he's a Jewish uber-liberal from New England. You might think people will weigh his views against prejudice, but the majority of Dixie wont have to flip a coin on that one. Plus, one of them has overwhelming party support.

California and the North West may be Sanders' last good stand.

[Thinkingabout]

31. Those delegats votes at the convention will count as much as delegates received from the primaries.

[think]

32. Yes. The Super Establishment Delegates get as much of a vote as the Democratic voter's delegates

You are correct...

[lumberjack_jeff]

108. Fuck'em. If they defy the will of the public, the political revolution will stop being political.

[dana_b]

9. Nope! Sorry to tell you, we will be here

for much longer than that. Bernie's strongest states come after the first Super Tuesday. It's all uphill for him after that!

[33taw]

81. I am confused, is this what you intended to say?

[JonLeibowitz]

106. Some people think uphill climb is the opposite of going downhill.

Unfortunately, they are both negative.

[morningfog]

42. She's tied. 51 apiece. Super Tuesday will be a slew of promotional allocation.

It will still be close on Wednesday after.

[Lucinda]

118. 52-51 Hillary. n/t

[morningfog]

119. Yep, last NV delegate allocated. She's really pulled ahead now.

[Lucinda]

120. Yes, she has!

[timmymoff]

56. Icing

Icing is also a penalty in hockey. I would refer to her winning the nomination as a penalty more than a flavorful treat. That's why I will do all I can to return the democratic party to the roots that Hillary and her supporters seem to currently deem as unworthy. Bernie may have never been a "democrat" but he damn sure has more of an FDR approach to governance than his opponent does. It is hard for me to fathom that people believe being pro business and pro management is the best way to build the party. Having Bill Clinton refer to half the voting block as the "left wing version of the tea party" was so insulting it will be hard for me to support who he endorses.

[CorporatistNation]

75. THIS IS THE LIE That Will Be Repeated ENDLESSLY On The FASCIST MSM And By "Surrogates!"

Funny... unity was not important in 2008. Well it don't matter for shit until the process has run its ENTIRE COURSE in 2016 either!

The voters are just now becoming acquainted with just "who" Hillary... REALLY is...

[FSogol]

3. All the talk of meme and camps is ridiculous. Wanna win? GOTV. It is that simple.

[wyldwolf]

4. "If the pattern holds where Clinton loses Whites/Latinos,"

What pattern of losing Latinos?

[Cali_Democrat]

15. I'm curious about that myself

The entrance polls in Nevada turned out to be incorrect.

Hillary won the areas in Nevada with large Latino populations.

[kcjohn1]

21. Entrance Poll

Was pretty close. It had Sanders @46 to Clinton's @51 with 3% undecided.

[Loudestlib]

48. You are incorrect.

"Latino voters in Nevada are generally younger than whites or blacks in the state, and as we've seen in both national polls and exit polls so far, younger voters are perhaps more apt to back Sanders than any other group in the Democratic electorate."

Thanks for playing
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/22/politics/polls-nevada-caucuses-democrats-latinos/index.html

[passiveporcupine]

67. Do you have new poll numbers from Nevada?

I have not seen them. Just an opinion posted by someone that they "may" be wrong.

[passiveporcupine]

74. You might want to reconsider (or not...it's up to you)

We note that some analysts have said that Secretary Clinton's victories in heavily Latino precincts proved that she won the Latino vote. However the methodology of using heavily Latino or "barrio" precincts to represent Latino voting behavior has been considered ineffective and discarded for more than 30 years due to non-barrio residential patterns been common among Latino voters since the 1980's.

Lost is this controversy is the fact that the data shows a record high Latino vote share in the Democratic Caucuses with Latinos representing 19% of the vote compared to 13% in 2008.

WCVI is a non-profit, non-partisan Latino public policy and research organization founded in 1985 with offices in Los Angeles and San Antonio.

Posted by KCJohn below:
http://myemail.constantcontact.com/Who-Won-the-Nevada-Latino-Vote-.html?soid=1114208817960&aid=TUzlNNKZYHc

[w4rma]

86. Sanders Wins Nevada Latinos, Study Shows

https://berniesanders.com/press-release/sanders-wins-nevada-latinos-study-shows/

[kcjohn1]

16. Clinton camp are the masters of spin.

http://myemail.constantcontact.com/Who-Won-the-Nevada-Latino-Vote-.html?soid=1114208817960&aid=TUzlNNKZYHc

[wyldwolf]

19. Ohh, you mean he 'won' latinos because he didn't lose them as bad as people thought he would

I'm finally getting Sandernista logic.

[kcjohn1]

22. No it says he won 53/46 (nt)

[wyldwolf]

23. the president of the polling firm defends his own poll. Okey dokey! :)

[kcjohn1]

26. So one side

Is the Hillary Campaign.

The other side is scientific poll of 1,000 actual voters. I'm not sure which I should believe.

[wyldwolf]

27. on one side, every other non-partial source and analysis

[kcjohn1]

28. Please tell me your impartial sources and analysis

Convenient that we should believe polls except when it contradicts a Clinton talking point.

[wyldwolf]

35. Sure

https://fusion.net/story/271686/bernie-sanders-latino-voters-nevada/
http://www.vox.com/2016/2/20/11079660/latinos-nevada-sanders
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/22/upshot/why-clinton-not-sanders-probably-won-the-hispanic-vote-in-nevada.html?_r=0



Convenient that we should believe polls except when it contradicts a Clinton talking point.

On the contrary - Clinton winning the latino vote is not a Clinton talking point. But those who believe otherwise only have the president of a polling outfit's word.

[kcjohn1]

38. I don't consider NYT/Vox as impartial

But if you look at those articles they use "probably" and "unlikely".

Again I trust scientific vs the opinion of hacks at VOX/NYT who just get feed talking points.

[wyldwolf]

39. Key to you response: "I" don't consider the NYT/VOX impartial

[Loudestlib]

49. Like this one?

Latino voters in Nevada are generally younger than whites or blacks in the state, and as we've seen in both national polls and exit polls so far, younger voters are perhaps more apt to back Sanders than any other group in the Democratic electorate.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/22/politics/polls-nevada-caucuses-democrats-latinos/index.html

[passiveporcupine]

80. It's not the president of the Edison poll you need to worry about

After hearing about disputes between the Sanders and Clinton over the Edison Entry Poll Survey results on the Latino vote in the Feb 20 Primary Caucuses WCVI undertook a review of the publicly disclosed data.

[w4rma]

87. Sanders Wins Nevada Latinos, Study Shows

https://berniesanders.com/press-release/sanders-wins-nevada-latinos-study-shows/

[onecaliberal]

5. I don't take advice from candidate known for lying.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. Ahhhhh.

Mo need to be so vituperative....


Here's a big DU

[Cleita]

7. Nah, it won't work.

Bernie supporters are pretty fed up with all the tricks and won't fall for them.

[KoKo]

62. ..!

[itsrobert]

8. Clinton is losing Latinos?

Relying on one faulty Entrance/Exit poll I see.

The results of the Nevada caucus says otherwise as Clinton won Hispanic/Latino neighborhoods by 20 percentage points. Those are real numbers in the only poll that counts, the actual vote/caucus.

[kcjohn1]

24. Hillary Propaganda in Full Swing

http://myemail.constantcontact.com/Who-Won-the-Nevada-Latino-Vote-.html?soid=1114208817960&aid=TUzlNNKZYHc

We note that some analysts have said that Secretary Clinton's victories in heavily Latino precincts proved that she won the Latino vote. However the methodology of using heavily Latino or "barrio" precincts to represent Latino voting behavior has been considered ineffective and discarded for more than 30 years due to non-barrio residential patterns been common among Latino voters since the 1980's.

[passiveporcupine]

83. I'm catching on John

It doesn't matter how many times this is posted. They are not going to read it.

[BainsBane]

91. It's claim is that Latino precincts

Aren't really Latino. It uses a general supposition to contradict specific voting and census data.

Whatever. The results will be known soon enough. If Bernie has the lock on the Latino vote you assume, then the SW state polling is all wrong and he should sweep those states next week.
I'm perfectly happy to wait until the actual results to come out. I don't need to prop myself up with speculative claims.

I do find it funny how every bit of data, polls, or anything tha doesn't promote the notion that Bernie is inherently superior and winning every state is a "meme." I've never seen such desperation to discount any and everything that doesn't promote the views of a vocal minority as the only and absolute source of all truth. It's sad actually.

[passiveporcupine]

93. This might explain it

According to the Census Bureau, the Latino population in Nevada is 10 years younger than the national average.

Younger Latinos are in Bernie's camp. Older Latinos might be in Hillary's camp?

Oh, BTW, this IS census data.

[BainsBane]

98. He didn't win Nevada, did he?

That really is the key point.

The quote above didn't site age, it said that there is a trend away from Latinos living in barrios. It used that assumption to counter actual vote results from Latino precincts. That claim doesn't prove those predicts aren't Latino.

I myself don't really care. I'm happy to wait for upcoming primary results to see what happens. I can also wait for a few years to see actual political science on the Nevada vote. I'm perfectly comfortable with saying we don't know enough at his particular point in time.

I do find the complete abandonment of logic and data disturbing, much as Krugman discussed in a column last week. But I have resigned myself to the sad reality that a number of self-described "progressives" have come to be as contemptuous of science and research standards as the right. Truth is now defined entirely in relation to what people want to believe, and it is that which will be our undoing.

[passiveporcupine]

104. boy, you've been practicing

But I have resigned myself to the sad reality that a number of self-described "progressives" have come to be as contemptuous of science and research standards as the right.

Nice Snark!

[thereismore]

114. He called census data science. Man, everybody is a scientist nowadays. nt

[Duval]

92. And if they do, they won't believe it. eom

[KingFlorez]

10. Super Tuesday matters

There are lots of delegates up for grabs and it will definitely effect the the trajectory of the race.

[book_worm]

11. Funny how she won Nevada losing latinos and whites?

and yet she won big in Latino neighborhoods.

[Eric J in MN]

66. HRC narrowly lost among whites and narrowly lost among Latinos and won 77% among blacks

...to win Nevada by 5.5 points.

[passiveporcupine]

82. It was her AA votes that allowed her to win eom

[joshcryer]

12. Clinton is winning Latinos. There's still work to do on that front.

Susan Saranden probably didn't help that.

[kgnu_fan]

14. we will fight and connect with each other on our way to the goal

[alcibiades_mystery]

17. Bernie should win 4 of 11

Vermont, Minnesota, Colorado, Massachusetts. If he misses any of those he's in real trouble.

[djean111]

18. I consider stuff coming from the Hillary contingent as just white noise.

Or flak. Doesn't really leave or make an impression, as far as my enthusiasm and support for Bernie is concerned.

[Art_from_Ark]

29. I've already voted for Bernie

[dana_b]

20. WE need to keep pushing this

on social media and keeping people informed so they don't get discouraged and give up.

[appalachiablue]

40. Roger that. There's a Long Way to go yet-

[Maedhros]

25. Everything from the Hillary campaign is a calculated lie. [n/t]

[Progressive dog]

33. I take it that Bernie supporters

are worried that it is downhill from here.

[think]

36. It's always been known that it would be an uphill battle from day one and the odds have never been

in Bernie's favor.

[Progressive dog]

41. That is the story the Bernie campaign has been telling.

[HubertHeaver]

95. It is the story we have been living with.

[Thinkingabout]

34. Bookmarking, I think I will need to reread this one shortly.

[AzDar]

37. " Surrender Bernie!! "... Seems to be the message of the day.

Nope. Bernie's In It To WIN It!

[MissDeeds]

47. Yep, in it to win it!

Go Bernie!!!

[DUbeornot2be]

88. They...

...have to come out and try to end it asap...

Every day that passes she is distrusted more...

[eggplant]

89. and his little dog, too! nt

[Chichiri]

44. Actually, the 2008 race was decided after South Carolina...

...and this race was decided after Iowa. Bernie has demonstrated that, even with a laser-like focus on a given state, he cannot muster the resources necessary to carry the states he needs.

[thereismore]

115. But SC doesn't matter. See at 9:04

[zentrum]

46. Bernie said he

…was in it until the convention.

Super Pacs are going to flood her with money. Absolutely flood.

[retrowire]

50. knr for truth. nt

[dflprincess]

51. There's a lot of crap coming out of Camp Weathervane

I've especially enjoyed their posts on FB where they whine that Bernie is being mean to them.

[dana_b]

53. If they think Bernie is mean..

what do they think Trump or the other Repubs would do to her? She better toughen up if she expects to get through the primaries and possibly the GE.

[desmiller]

105. Agreed

[Arkansas Granny]

111. I can't believe this. Do you really believe that Hillary doesn't know

what Republicans can do? She's been the focus of right wing attacks for over 40 years.

I think she has Trump's number, as well.

Toughen up, indeed.

[SwampG8r]

112. I disagree

She is terrified.of trump
Look at how.fast she dropped her sexism statements about him as soon as he threatened to drag her and bills history out and flog it publicly
Trump knows her secrets and she is terrified.by him.

[workinclasszero]

52. Bernies done

Put a fork in him and let's move on.

[dana_b]

55. Nope! We're here until the bitter end

you have MONTHS and MONTHS to go with Bernie AND us - aren't you lucky??!!

[workinclasszero]

59. Hanging on to the bitter end?

Is that next Saturday or March 1st?

[dana_b]

68. Maybe for Hillary...

but we'll be here until and through June 14th and then onto the convention where Bernie will be accepting his nomination. It will be GREAT to have you join us!!

[workinclasszero]

71. If he wins I'll vote for him

But that's not going to happen.

[HubertHeaver]

99. The possibility is not actually real to you though, is it?

Will you feel the same way as she begins to slip-slide down. The democratic primaries are not winner-take-all. They will both accumulate delegates with each primary.

[workinclasszero]

101. No it isn't but I'm being honest

That if Bernie wins I will vote for him and back him 100 %.

Republicans are the ultimate enemy not democrats.

That's hard to tell around here though

[HubertHeaver]

107. It has been difficult to tell around here lately.

[KoKo]

65. You Wish...but, it won't be granted. Bernie has resources

to continue all the way to the Convention!

[workinclasszero]

69. Well if Bernie keeps blowing his wad in lost causes

Like SC he will be out of dough soon.

[KoKo]

73. He's moved on to MA after holding a Rally with Thousands in Greenville, SC

He spent enough time in SC last fall at Liberty University, Charleston talking to the Victims of the shooting in the Baptist Church and in Columbia, Rock Hill and several other Colleges

It was time for him to move on. He made a great effort and I think he will get some votes from it by those who care what he is about and took the time to go see him at his events which were also (even back then) in the thousands.

It's up to the voters. He has other places to go and other voters who he can appeal to in the coming weeks and months.

[workinclasszero]

76. I thought he left SC too but

Other Bernsters are saying he's still there so not sure now.

[passiveporcupine]

84. You haven't been paying attention.

the money keeps rolling in. Every smear campaign by the Hillary camp brings in lots more money.

[rocktivity]

54. Was it over for Hillary after HER first Super Tuesday?

rocktivity

[KoKo]

57. True......the Mainstream, Corporate Media is putting out that Meme

since the Nevada Caucus!

Thanks for the Post!

[MisterP]

58. when will the lines cross over?

[thereismore]

116. Just in time for most of the delegates to be won. nt

[Jack Rabbit]

60. We will fight them until every can of Republican Lite is taken off the shelves

[center]

[/center][font size="1"]From Wikipedia Commons (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Eugène_Delacroix_-_La_liberté_guidant_le_peuple.jpg)
(Public Domain)
[/font]

[dana_b]

72. I love that picture

Vive la France et vive Bernie!

[leftofcool]

61. Bernie was done after Iowa!

[PatrickforO]

63. So hold tight and stick with Bernie.

Yep.

[warrprayer]

64. It won't work with me

Sent Bernie money Saturday, and will after "super duper Tuesday"!

[SCantiGOP]

70. Dear OP:

I don't tell you often enough how much I appreciate your telling me what to do.

[Lordquinton]

77. The Clinton spin Is heavy

A tie in Iowa (wih much doubt cast on the process) was billed as a solid win. A steamrolling in NH was brushed away as not important. A 5% win in NV (with lots of controversy, and a narrower victory than in '08) is billed as Sander's death knell. This race is still a dead 51/51 heat, and still going. The media is for Clinton, and they are spinning hard.

Clinton's camp sound like those annoying kids at FNM who ask "is it my turn?" After every move you make.

[Hydra]

97. They are loud, but they have mountains to move.

As one of Team Hill points out further up, this was supposed to be over in Iowa. A virtual tie spun as a resounding victory.

I heard they blew a lot of money for that tie...but 2 losses to start would have been devastating.

[Lordquinton]

110. Exactly

Everything Sanders is saying is being spun into him giving up, they wish the actual left wing of the party would give up. Some of us remember the nasty names we've been called (Rham and his comment, which he apologized to the disabled community for, but not the progressives).

[Cassiopeia]

79. The majority of these states will also be dark red in the GE.

If the party tries to make a choice on states we will lose in the GE it's gone way off the deep end.

[Tarc]

85. So this is the spin for states in which Sanders is losing by 25-30%?

How...interesting.

[Duval]

90. No Way will she demotivate me!

Thanks for your OP. Now we'll be prepared.

[Blue_In_AK]

94. I just donated some more today,

and I agree with your post.

[bkkyosemite]

102. There was a I think Vance Jones (may be wrong about name) on CNN

just now giving pointers to Bernie and they were good ones. He said Bernie should be saying when she says she is with Obama how she is not with him on many issues. Also to tell historic stories instead of just the same talks change it up a little explaining our history and how he can help to change it.

[noretreatnosurrender]

103. Don't Worry

I would never fall for it because it's just another campaign tactic. Easy to see through it like all of the other tactics that are tried here on DU.

[lumberjack_jeff]

109. The super tuesday key is margin of victory.

If Hillary continues to eke out tiny margins of victory in some states while Bernie stages blowouts in others, this will remain close.

[thereismore]

113. Just let them listen at 10:30 of this video