Nate Silver and All You Poll Junkies Forgot One Factor: Baseball Depression!

[alcibiades_mystery]

What's currently unfolding in American and National League Division Series might well throw the election. In one of the the NLDS series, Cincinnati had a commanding two game lead over the San Francisco giants. With the Division Series being only best-three-of-five, it looked like a lock for the long-suffering Ohio fans. But today San Francisco tied that series at two games a piece. They will play for the final game tomorrow in Cincinnati. This series is especially telling, since the Reds finished with the best record in baseball, and their fans are starting to believe. Just a few nights ago, they crushed the Giants in a gruesome 9-0 beatdown. And now they are one loss away from elimination. In the American League, even more drama unfolded, for the (somewhat) election sensitive state of Michigan. Once again playing a Bay Area coast team (the Oakland A's), the Detroit Tigers, who had mounted a thrilling late season comeback that pushed them just past the Chicago White Sox, also had a commanding two game lead. Tonight, they entered the ninth inning with a 3-1 lead. They needed just three outs to move on. But the A's came back, in one of the more thrilling 9th inning comebacks in recent memory (there were heroics in the Bronx tonight as well), and walked off with a single by Coco Crisp.

Should the Ohio and Michigan teams lose to the Californians, all bets are off for voting in two of the most crucial election regions of the race. Attempting to construct an election model without considering Rust Belt baseball depression is dangerous business indeed. We need to weight these fifth game playoffs appropriately!






















Gotcha!

[Cali_Democrat]

1. Maybe San Francisco and Oakland should lose on purpose

for the good of the country.

[alcibiades_mystery]

2. For the good of the Bay Area!

Remember what happened last time they played each other in a World Series?

[cliffordu]

5. Yep - I was supposed to be there that day but took a turn south instead.

LA never looked better than later that afternoon.....

[lafde]

3. A's & Giants

A's all the way...Dont remind me what happen last time when they met...I was at the game...

[regnaD kciN]

4. They used to say that...

...if the NL team won the World Series, the Democratic candidate would win the presidency. It was a pattern repeated for years...until Reagan broke the streak in 1980.

[longship]

6. Go Tigers!

My home town.

Thomas M. Cooley High School graduate of 1966.

[alcibiades_mystery]

7. I don't know how you get over a loss like last night's

And in Oakland. Gonna be tough.

[alcibiades_mystery]

8. Cincy goes down! ADJUST THE MODELS!!!!!!