Let's do really simple math, Bernie's "favorable month" after mid-March

[Godhumor]

OK, we're going to make some really, really favorable assumptions to Bernie here, just to prove a point.

In pledged delegates he is currently -1 vs Clinton.

Let's say he manages to win 45% of all delegates between SC and the end of his butcher's row on March 15. There is a total of 2,239 delegate up for grabs in that time frame.

He is now -240 as of March 15.

The "favorable" schedule for him lasts from March 22 through April 9. During that time there are a total of 435 delegates up for grabs. Let's say he goes on a big run and wins 60% of all those delegates.

Guess what, he is still 157 behind heading into the Goliath that is NY and a much less favorable schedule from there on out.

No, Bernie won't be mathematically eliminated by mid March, but when analysts talk about him being in a deficit that is nearly statistical impossible to make up? That's why.

[cantbeserious]

1. Predictably Spreading Establishment FUD - Meme Number 153

eom

[peacebird]

2. Bernie doesn't have the FBI & a federal Judge working on cases about his handling of classified info

Bernie is not considered dishonest and untrustworthy by a majority of american citizens....

[Politicalboi]

3. This needs to be out there more

Let her run in 2020 after she "clears" herself from these issues. We WILL relive the 90's in scandal X 100 with her, and we'll all lose.

[MADem]

5. No one who supports her thinks your idea is a good one.

She'll likely run in 2020--for her 2nd term.

[The Redheaded Guy]

20. That is, if she is not doing her 2nd term in prison

on a consecutive sentences...

Just sayin'....

(JURY: THIS IS JUST A SNARK)

[MADem]

22. I wouldn't hang any hope on that scenario, either.

What doesn't kill her (and this does not) makes her stronger.

[thesquanderer]

48. What doesn't kill her makes her stronger?

That's an odd way to look at easily the highest unfavorables of any candidate of either party. You'd better hope she doesn't get any "stronger."

[MADem]

51. I've noticed that America has a curious tolerance for "Hillary Hate."

But when it goes over the line, it rebounds like a rubber band.

Rick Lazio learned that to his dismay.

When the GOP decided that raking her over the coals was a smooth move, we got some FABULOUS gifs!






But hey, "let me grab my pen" and I'll make a note of that...!

[thesquanderer]

53. I'm not sure Rick Lazio's experience in New York...

...would be a good bellwether for what to expect outside the bluest states.

[MADem]

4. I wouldn't hang my hat and hopes on that.

But if that's your strategy, well, see you on the other side.

[Lil Missy]

36. And yet, the majority of Democrats still prefer Hillary Clinton. There must be a reason for that.

[thesquanderer]

55. Majority of Dems prefer Hillary? Depends which poll you look at.

Things may be shifting.

i.e. http://usuncut.com/politics/bernie-makes-huge-national-gains-in-reuters-poll/

And more relevant to being able to win the general election, it's not just about being preferred by Dems, but also by independents.

[Godhumor]

61. You realize Reuters official poll, the one people can't modify but based on the same data

Came out today, and it is Hillary +5, right? Reuters never officially showed Sanders up by 6. That was the work of someone playing with filters to get the result they wanted.

[thesquanderer]

62. Well there's also this one...

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/02/18/fox-news-poll-national-presidential-race-february-18-2016/

Yes, it's done in conjunction with Fox (Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research), but 538 says it's a good poll (rating it B).

So again, it depends what poll you look at.

But okay, I will grant you that, at this point, HRC still seems to be favored overall, among Dems. As I've said before, I still think she's likely to win the nomination... which is unfortunate because I think she'll have the tougher road in November.

[workinclasszero]

6. Reality bites for Bernie

and his supporters.

[kcjohn1]

7. Where they do you get your numbers

Sanders will most likely be down ~50 delegates by end of Super Tuesday.

[Godhumor]

9. I went through March 15

So it includes biggies like Florida, Michigan, etc.

[kcjohn1]

10. How about we get through Super Tuesday first?

Big assumptions you are making 3 weeks out.

Right now I see Mississippi/Florida/Louisiana as bad for him (similar to other Tuesday states). Nebraska/Maine/Kanas probably look good for him.

Michigan/Ohio/Illinois/NH will be where the race will be won. Thankfully it will not be crazy like Super Tuesday, and he needs basically tie or better win this bunch of states. There will be basically 2 weeks of campaigning for these states, and they contain significant working class voters. If he can't make his case to them, then the election is over.

[Godhumor]

31. I made very favorable assumptions for him for overall delegate rewards

Not on a state by state basis. And he is a heavy underdog in Michigan, Illinois and, yes, Ohio if you want to get specific.

But sure, let's go just through Super Tuesday. If he pulls off a phenomenal feat and gets 45% of all delegates rewarded from SC through March 1, he is still 110 in the hole.

[brooklynite]

11. Show us your math...

...I gave my estimates, as have others.

[kcjohn1]

13. Look at this analysis

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/2/24/1489582/-Why-is-Bernie-putting-resources-into-northern-not-southern-states-Cuz-It-s-smart-delegate-strategy

Basically if you assume Clinton is up +7 in the national race (current average), then she will come out of Super Tuesday with ~100 delegate advantage with 25% of the pledge vote. After March 15, another 25% will vote to make it 50%. At worst Sanders loses another ~100 delegates (given Super Tuesday is bad as it gets), and he is down 200 delegates by end of March 15. That is far cry from the 400 cited by the OP.

IMO the national lead is closer than 7 points. My prediction is he is down by 50-60 delegates by Super Tuesday. The states between March 3 - 15 is pretty much a wash. Next 8 states are favorable and he can sweep them. It comes down to NY in April. If he can win there, then he wins CA, and nomination. If he can't, the election is over.

[brooklynite]

17. Again, show us thee math

I gave you specific States by State estimates; no gut involved

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511324348

[kcjohn1]

27. Look at the link

Not only does it have math for each state it does it congressional level. You just need to do some reading and look at pictures of excel tables.

Or you can believe that according to that math she comes out with ~100 (I believe exact number was 103) more delegates.

[Godhumor]

38. My OP isn't 400. It is 240

And there is no indication, whatsoever, that he is going 50-50 from March 3 to 15.

And to be down by only 50 to 60 delegates after Super Tuesday would mean winning 47% or 48% of all delegates between now and then. It is possible, of course, but highly, highly unlikely.

[kcjohn1]

41. 400 was my mistake

If Sanders is down 7 point (national avg right now) he will be down around 100 delegates after Super Tuesday.

The link with detailed analysis does not have data for states afterwards. But outside of LA/Florida the rest (OH, MI, NC, etc) are more favorable than the SEC states on Super Tuesday. Even if you assume he will be still down 7 by then, then its another ~-100.

If assume the race is static we might as well call for Hillary because right now he is down. That is why I'm saying let's see what comes out of Super Tuesday. Bernie is not going to win but size of defeat will be very telling.

[Godhumor]

43. Sure. But to your numbers he would have to outperform his Nevada result

To be down only 50-60 at the end.

And the race isn't static which is why I went extremely favorable in my assumptions. My point was to simply illustrates where and why these stories/posts about being down by a statistically impossible margin would come from.

But you're trying very hard to be even-handed with the numbers and posts, so I will be, too. If Bernie comes out of Super Tuesday only down 60 delegates it will shift the narrative considerably, and that might change dynamics in later races.

[kcjohn1]

44. That is why Super Tuesday will be interesting

It is unfortunate that so many of the states are unfavourable to him in early march. For example losing SC by 11, Texas by 20, Georgia by 24 would all mean national race is tied and he has path to victory. But the media narrative will not reflect that.

[Godhumor]

45. Scheduling is just scheduling

Think of how different the past month would have been if SC was the first primary instead of NH, and NV was the first caucus instead of IA.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. Except she is ahead by 24 in SC, 26 in TX, and 38 in GA

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ga/georgia_democratic_presidential_primary-5623.html

If you are referring to delegates I apologize.

[0rganism]

58. i think what kcjohn1's saying is those mean Hillary still has a big lead overall

if the leads were as he suggested, it would indicate a tied race nationally, which would lead to a very interesting late-March scenario.

at least that's what i got out of his post.

[MADem]

8. People were loving 538 when it said things they wanted to hear.

And they hated it when it said things they didn't like.

Lately, I'd say the Clinton team is loving 538.

[calguy]

12. Bernie basically blew it in Nevada

He outspent Hillary 2-1 on tv ads and still was soundly defeated. He put so much of his resources into a state with only 30 delegates at stake. He now finds himself at a financial disadvantage going into the big delegate rich states he sorely needs to win. I admire him for taking the gamble but it didn't pay off, now he can't compete on a national level.

[workinclasszero]

21. He put all of his faith into the Millennial revolution

And they left Bernie high and dry in the Nevada desert.

[JonLeibowitz]

32. Not at all, there are many older people in Nevada. Also your condescending snark towards young ppl

is noted. And remembered.

[workinclasszero]

39. ok?

[The Redheaded Guy]

24. This comment just earned Bernie another $25.

Thank you!

Thank you

$25.00 charged to card xxxxxxxxxxxx4648

View your receipt

Please note that on your credit card statement this contribution will appear as one or more charges to ACTBLUE*BERNIE.SANDERS.

[MADem]

29. He's running an ad in MA that just isn't good.

It sounds tired and irritated.

HRC is running a couple of good ads--the Morgan Freeman and another one. Good color, very peppy, all about personal interaction.

NV was always a tricky state for BS. I suppose he did some internal polling that looked hopeful; it just didn't pan out.

The polls are all over the place this year--they're about as useful as chicken bones.

[thesquanderer]

49. I'm not sure I'd call losing by 5 pts being soundly defeated...

...compared to where he was starting from.

[alcibiades_mystery]

14. I wonder what some of these people are going to do when Sanders is endorsing Clinton in

a convention speech.

I mean, honestly, they've demonized her and canonized him to such a degree that it will cause major head explosions from here to Piscataway.

[Glamrock]

15. I've got a feeling a large portion may sit it out

But it's just an opinion...

[MADem]

35. Not if they see him as a potential SECLABOR.

I think that's a good fit, actually. Paves the way for Shumlin in the Senate. We need every seat, after all...

[TTUBatfan2008]

50. I doubt that will happen.

The people backing Hillary would not want Sanders anywhere near the administration.

[MADem]

52. Sure it could happen.

The people backing Obama might not have wanted Clinton in the cabinet, either, fortunately, Barack had other ideas.

Sanders has some good ideas on the labor front. He could do a lot in the cabinet. It would give him a national platform, a significant pay raise, a large staff to help realize his ambitions--it's a good gig and he'd actually work it pretty hard.

[Vattel]

16. To be honest, the behavior of Clinton and her supporters does make it very difficult

to imagine voting for her in the general. But if DeRay wins the mayor race in Baltimore, I will be happy.

[alcibiades_mystery]

19. I feel the same way about the Sanders supporters, believe me

Not voting for the Democratic nominee, of course, would be childishness beyond even normal bounds of pouting resentment.

[Vattel]

26. Well, living in Maryland, my vote for president seems pretty insignificant.

If I were living in a swing state and Trump is the Republican nominee, that would motivate me big time. Trump's saying that he would commit war crimes by killing family members of terrorists certainly puts Clinton's hawkishness into perspective.

[workinclasszero]

23. I wonder the same thing

Heads will explode around here lol

[JonLeibowitz]

34. I won't hold it against him, it's part of playing the primary game as a Democrat.

I will of course know he hasn't changed any of his fundamental opinions about her. Nor will I. Her corruption and deception will continue whether Bernie wins or not.

It's really quite simple.

[The Redheaded Guy]

18. Now that there's news about Clinton's unclassified and unprotected server again

Watch her support plummet and trustworthiness on an all-time low, giving Bernie a much needed boost to help survive the unfavorable states until the 15th.

[workinclasszero]

25. You wish

Hillary will destroy Bernie's campaign in six short days from now. Wait and see.

[The Redheaded Guy]

28. My state will be delivering about 75% of its delegates to Bernie.

Will yours?

[workinclasszero]

30. Come back in six days to survey the wreckage of Bernie's failed campaign

He actually lost the campaign in Nevada when his revolution sat at home and played video games instead of caucusing for him.

[The Redheaded Guy]

40. I am told that that is the last caucus Clinton will win ever.

The primaries will reveal the truth. South Carolina is the 2nd one after NH.

[workinclasszero]

42. Yup

Saturdays the day...SC blowout for Hillary

[MaggieD]

33. Math is hard!!

LOL!

[Thinkingabout]

37. We do know Hillary, we know she has been an advocate for people for years

she will continue to be for the people.

[Godhumor]

46. Agreed

Now it is just time to bring it home and get prepped for the GE.

[ismnotwasm]

54. Another donation to Hillary from me!

[MuseRider]

56. You all who are saying this

just do not get it. Nevermind, you have to want to understand something before you actually can. Much easier to just try to stop it. I never thought I would say that but you really do not get it. If you do then we are in a worse state in this country that I thought.

[hack89]

57. We understand basic math.

and we can read the polls. Regardless of who you support, there is no room for magic thinking in politics - delegate math is very simple.

We do get it.

[MuseRider]

59. "Magical thinking"

has nothing to do with this and for you to insinuate that this is the reason is fucking insulting and positive proof that you are apparently unable to grasp what we are talking about. Not that I am any longer surprised by this.

[hack89]

60. I can understand your frustration

The adult response is not to insult those that disagree with you as close minded or ignorant. You are not blessed with some special and unique perspective regardless of the strength of your passion.

[MuseRider]

63. Oh boy.

Ok.
Not at all frustrated, I really don't care if you understand or not.
It is pretty apparent that there is no reason to continue this discussion.

[hack89]

64. Passions are running high at the moment.

Things will be better here when the primaries are over.

Peace.