Today's PredictWise - 2016 Democratic Nomination - Hillary 90% - Bernie 10%

[Alfresco]

http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-democratic-nomination

Key data on this page includes: Prediction Markets (Betfair, PredictIt, Hypermind), Polling (HuffPost Pollster), Bookie (OddsChecker).

[Kentonio]

1. Pretty bold odds considering the latest poll has him a point ahead

[Alfresco]

3. HuffPost Pollster - Hillary 49%, Bernie 42.1%

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

[Kentonio]

7. Latest poll isn't included in that.

[Gothmog]

21. The free market system disagrees with your analysis

The predictive markets which are based on the free market system disagrees with your analysis. If anyone really believes this analysis, then go make some money by opening an Irish brokerage account You would get great odds on this belief and can make some money http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner Clinton's odds of being the Democratic nominee has shot up 6 or 7 points since Nevada and the odds of the Democratic candidate (i.e. Clinton) winning the general election has gone up also.

I was close to buying an option when Clinton was only at 80% probability of being the nominee a couple of weeks ago (i.e., before the Nevada caucus results). With Clinton being at 90% chance of being the nominee, the pricing is not attractive to me but would be attractive if you really believe that Sanders will be the nominee.

The people who making the market are no doubt factoring in super delegates and all of the states where Sanders is projected to lose by double digit margins.

[Kentonio]

22. Predictive markets are bullshit. Go see who they were 'predicting' not long before the last election

[Gothmog]

23. Then go buy a contract and see if you can make some money based on your beliefs or predictions

I came close to buying a contract when Clinton's chances of being the nominee were down to 80% for a couple of hours before Nevada. That pricing of an option contract was almost attractive but the odds moved quickly and now an option agreement on Clinton is not price well but you would get great odds if you buy a contract based on Sanders winning.

[Kentonio]

24. Some of us care about issues not what money we could make from gambling.

As a supporter of the current financial system however I can see how you would find that confusing.

[BernieforPres2016]

2. So why are the Hillary supporters so nervous and unwilling to talk about issues?

And why are Hillary's surrogates smearing Bernie and alienating his supporters if her nomination is inevitable? Are they just stupid?

[Alfresco]

17. ...

[DrDan]

4. in-line with 538

[LexVegas]

5. He doesn't have a 10% chance. More like 2%. nt

[workinclasszero]

6. Lookin great for Hillary

[Alfresco]

18. Yes!

[Lucinda]

8. They have the GE at 62/38 Dem win.

Looking very good!

Thankie Alfresco!

[Alfresco]

9. Why yes they do. :-) So Hillary-62%, tRump-38% :-)

[Lucinda]

10. Yes! And I wouldn't have noticed if it wasn't for your post!

[workinclasszero]

11. They have the GE at 62/38 Dem win.

Hillary is going to be a great President!

[Lucinda]

12. I think so too!

[workinclasszero]

13. You should post this info on its own post

This is BIG NEWS!

[Lucinda]

15. You can here, if you want?...I did in the group and am about to scoot.

[NurseJackie]

14. So, does this mean that Bernie will NOT be the nominee after all? Wow! I'm shocked!

Looks like all the RW attacks on Hillary inside our little closed ecosystem only serve to annoy Hillary supporters, but make ABSOLUTELY NO DIFFERENCE out in the real world.

Who knew? Go figure!

[workinclasszero]

16. ...make ABSOLUTELY NO DIFFERENCE out in the real world

I'm just going to kick back now and savor all the huge blowout victories Hillary is in store for starting Saturday.

This place needs a blast of refreshing reality, it starts Saturday in South Carolina.

[riversedge]

19. Steady as she goes. --and Sat. evening begins the mojo...

[workinclasszero]

20. Man I'm so excited...I can't wait!

South Carolina results are going to rock some peoples world around here!