Bernie Sanders Still Has a Path to Victory. Here It Is.

[Jefferson23]

Stay strong Bernie peeps and keep working

2/25/2016

The media says Clinton is inevitable (again), but the battle for delegates could be closer than anyone expects.
BY Christopher Hass

The main media narrative coming out of Saturday’s Nevada caucus was clear: Hillary Clinton’s got her inevitability back, and Bernie Sanders’ campaign is toast. You can see it across a broad swath of the political spectrum, from Salon (“Hillary Clinton’s Path Is Clear: Barring a catastrophe, her nomination is inevitable”) to the Drudge Report (“Bern Out: Hillary could end it all in two weeks!”).

But if you put aside conjecture and speculation for a moment, there’s really only one fact we can know for certain: Sanders currently trails Clinton by just a single pledged delegate, 51-52. Yes, it's true that, including superdelegates (which we’ll get to in a bit), a candidate needs to amass at least 2,383 total delegates in order to claim the Democratic nomination—but that’s just another way of saying that you have to win by one.

That’s not how the media tends to talk about the nomination, but it’s the framework to keep in mind as things unfold over the next few weeks and months—and it’s a framework the campaigns themselves clearly understand. For all the talk of momentum, it’s math that will determine the winner.
(Re)setting expectations

When polls closed in New Hampshire, two things happened within seconds: the networks declared Sanders the winner, and the Clinton campaign released a three-page memo that attempted to reframe not just her loss but the entirety of the race to come. The memo explained:

While important, the first four states represent just 4% of the delegates needed to secure the nomination. …

The way to win the nomination is to maximize the number of delegates we secure from each primary and caucus. That means, in many cases, that the margin of victory (or defeat) within a given state is actually more important than whether the state is won or lost.

Given its timing, the memo may have looked like sleight of hand to disguise an embarrassing loss, but the underlying point is absolutely correct. The early states, with their relatively small populations, account for only a fraction of the total primary votes. And though every delegate is a zero sum game (either Clinton wins it or Sanders does), every state is not. The margins matter.

So, let’s look at the margins.
What it takes

Trying to map the 2008 race to 2016 is an imperfect science, but 2008 does provide the most recent example of what a long, contested Democratic primary looks like (and of course, there’s one constant in both: Hillary Clinton).

Most everyone remembers the exciting first act of 2008: Barack Obama's historic victory in the Iowa caucus, Clinton's teary-eyed come-from-behind win in New Hampshire, and the photo-finish of the Nevada caucus. When seen in terms of delegate differential, however, it looks likes this:



The reality is considerably less dramatic, isn’t it? Math will do that. Now, here is where the race stands at the same point in 2016:



Next, let’s look at how the rest of the race unfolded in 2008, focusing on pledged delegates won by each candidate in each contest on the night of the election or caucus*, as well as the margin of delegate victory:



remainder: http://inthesetimes.com/article/18913/bernie-sanders-delegate-path-to-victory-super-tuesday

[Faux pas]

1. Kickin'

[Jefferson23]

2. Thank you, it's good analysis, no fluff. n/t

[appal_jack]

3. & kickin' again. Rec'n too. nt

[Jefferson23]

7. Thanks, appal_jack. n/t

[november3rd]

4. Yeah. They've been trying to douse the Bern since day one

Nobody paid any attention to Bernie the first 6 months.

Then they laughed.

But, even though it's an uphill struggle now, the revolution is here and will continue no matter what.

The revolution for American democracy is still building and Bernie can still ride that wave all the way to the Convention floor.

It's a matter of faith and perseverance.

If we're willing to do whatever is necessary to get what we want, we'll get it eventually, especially if we don't vacillate on what IT is.

[brooklynite]

5. Sorry to have to douse cold water on this...

...but FIRST of all, this model is a skin of his teeth, no margin for error, win by ONE delegate.

...and SECOND, it is built on a flawed assumption that Clinton 2016 will play like Clinton 2008, target large delegate-laden States but allow Sanders to scoop up all the smaller and Caucus States. Sorry, Clinton learned the error long ago, and isn't foregoing ANY States. The odds that Sanders will win his State targets by the delegates supposed here are miniscule.

[Jefferson23]

6. Don't be sorry, I'm not. I have seen you as odds maker before, so I'm not

worried. We'll keep working hard and stay focused on Sanders until there is no reason
to do so.

[k8conant]

9. There is no flawed assumption about Clinton...

and besides why would you say Clinton 2016 would "allow Sanders" to do anything?

We the voters

[Godhumor]

13. And SC already finished worse for Bernie than expected

Which means, if the model plays out the rest of the way exactly as it is written... Clinton wins.

So yeah, that's unfortunate.

[k8conant]

8. "Note: This article has been updated to reflect the outcome of the South Carolina primary

—and we'll continue to update the overall delegate counts as each state contest takes place."


http://inthesetimes.com/article/18913/bernie-sanders-delegate-path-to-victory-super-tuesday


It's not over until it's over. We're with you in WV, Bernie!

[Adrahil]

10. 538 has an excellent analysis on what it will take.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

Tomorrow will be very predictive, but not completely determinative. Just keep on eye on that target graph.

[Jefferson23]

14. That is very good, thank you for the link and good wishes for your preferred candidate today.

Today's results will be an important marker for mine...so its a bit anxiety provoking.

[Adrahil]

16. You too!

[kgnu_fan]

11. kick

[JaneyVee]

12. Um...Hillary leads 91-65. This may have been relevant 2 weeks ago.

[Jefferson23]

15. We'll know soon enough, big day today. n/t