1st numbers in from SC point to overwhelmingly good news for Clinton in SC

[Godhumor]

South Carolina has been posting twice daily demographics on absentee voting submissions. And, boy, do those demographics point to good news for Clinton on the strength of the massive advantage she has with African American voters.

Through this morning, 36,890 absentee ballots have been submitted. Of those ballots 26,448 are from African Americans--a whopping 72%.

http://www.scvotes.org/2010/05/13/fact_sheets
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And if you don't understand why that is pointing to a monumental night for Hillary on the 27th, well, I'll let Harry Enten of 538 explain it in one Tweet with regards to the numbers:

This is called organization and the Clinton folks have it in South Carolina

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/702923948435054592

[SoLeftIAmRight]

1. More bad news for the future of America

State Education Ranking Shows Vermont #1, South Carolina Last

Vermont is going 75 - 15 for Sanders

I think I will stand with the ones that have a better education.

[DCBob]

2. That's insulting to the good people in South Carolina.

Educational rankings don't mean squat when it comes to common sense.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

3. All that "book lernin" is not important...

ok

[DCBob]

6. Its important but you can't teach common sense..

which I believe the good folks in SC have plenty of which is why they are supporting Hillary Clinton.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

7. "Common Sense Is Neither Common nor Sense"

Common sense, defined as "sound judgment derived from experience rather than study," is one of the most revered qualities in America. It evokes images of early and simpler times in which industrious men and women built our country into what it is today. People with common sense are seen as reasonable, down to earth, reliable, and practical.

But here's the catch. Common sense is neither common nor sense. There's not a whole of sound judgment going on these days (though whether it is worse than in the past, I can't be sure), so it's not common. If common sense was common, then most people wouldn't make the kinds of decisions they do every day. People wouldn't buy stuff they can't afford. They wouldn't smoke cigarettes or eat junk food. They wouldn't gamble. And if you want to get really specific and timely, politicians wouldn't be tweeting pictures of their private parts to strangers. In other words, people wouldn't do the multitude of things that are clearly not good for them.

And common sense isn't real sense, if we define sense as being sound judgment, because relying on experience alone doesn't usually offer enough information to draw reliable conclusions. Heck, I think common sense is a contradiction in terms. Real sense can rarely be derived from experience alone because most people's experiences are limited.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-power-prime/201107/common-sense-is-neither-common-nor-sense

[DCBob]

11. Common sense is simply something that's plainly obvious...

... and voting for Hillary is plainly obvious to most South Carolinians.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

12. anyone that says things are "simple"

only thinks about simple things

[DCBob]

17. Thanks for the insult.

You are full of them today. I am done with you. Ciao.

[arcane1]

5. "Common sense" says the Sun orbits the Earth n/t

[DCBob]

8. No it doesnt.

Common sense says things like that need to be defined by science.

Voting for Hillary on the other hand is "common sense".

[sufrommich]

9. I can only imagine the insults Clinton's win in SC is going

to bring to the surface,looks like you're starting early. Good luck with that.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

10. SC means nothing in the greneral

I look at the big picture

It is all about the swing states

[JI7]

23. black voters do matter in the GE

That's the significance of south carolina .

[SoLeftIAmRight]

28. you should be in the Olympics - that was a huge jump

...

[wildeyed]

29. So we only have primaries in swing states?

What does that even mean? Ohio, Florida, North Carolina? It would be easier, for sure.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

31. The rest is just a TV show

enjoy

[Goblinmonger]

13. No Dem is going to win SC in the GE.

I know that much. So, really, SC doesn't matter all that much for the race that really matter.

Congrats Hillary, you won a state you will get exactly zero electoral votes from.

[sufrommich]

19. Maybe we should count these democrats in red states

as,3/5th of a democratic voter. Obviously they're inferior to better schooled Sanders supporters.

[Goblinmonger]

21. Yeah, that's what I said.

Perhaps if you actually discussed what I REALLY said rather than construct a silly strawman, we could get somewhere.

I'm not even talking about this primary season. Don't you think it's silly that we let the following make a HUGE difference in who the nominee is going to be:
1. small states that have very little impact, followed by,
2. states that Dems will win a very small number of electoral votes from.

Shouldn't we rotate the primary states based on swing states, states that normally give their electoral votes to Democrats? That seems like it should be the first places we look to decide who to nominate.

But that would make sense.

[wildeyed]

33. That makes zero sense.

And is even more undemocratic than system we already have.

Also, what do you mean by "swing state"? Because it appears that you misunderstand the term.

[Goblinmonger]

40. I meant those as two different things.

Put possible swing states (so we know who might give us a chance to win there) AND strongly Dem states first.

I see where the confusion was--the comma worked in my mind but probably not elsewhere.

Why does it make zero sense? The primary should be about picking the candidate that has the most chance of winning the Electoral College. How does Iowa and NH followed by states we aren't going to win make sense? Why don't we just start with ND, SD, Montana, and Alaska first and let that weed out candidates, because if we actually won all four of those we'd get a whopping 12 electoral votes (and we ain't going to win all those).

[wildeyed]

43. We picked fine the last few times.

We won, remember?

[Goblinmonger]

44. Oh, I know.

And I'm not making this argument just because of this year. I've thought it for a while. I also hate caucuses, but that's a different thing all together.

The states we put first don't make sense. It seems like the order was picked before the "you're dead in the water after the first five primaries" mindset came about. And the need for money to keep going. If we are going to use the first handful or two of primaries to weed everyone out, we need to make those first 5-10 states that will really matter in this election as best we can tell.

[obamanut2012]

38. That's not what swing states are

[Goblinmonger]

41. I explained my writing mistake above

I meant for those to be two different criteria by which we choose which states have primaries first:

1. Those strongly democratic
2. Those that are swing states so we know which candidate would be most attractive to hopefully win that state.

Totally understand how I didn't make that clear.

[WI_DEM]

14. Of course Vermont is a lily white state while SC has a diverse population

with lots of African-Americans. African-Americans have long been discriminated against educationally as well. But you go ahead and insult them. This is why Bernie is not doing better in minority communities--too many limousine liberals who support him who think they are better.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

18. You use the right wing trick of changing the frame...

then you get racist

Do you think about the facts presented?

Hope you did not get hurt making that huge leap.

[Journeyman]

22. Adlai Stevenson, twice a Democratic candidate for President against Eisenhower, was told . . .

by a supporter who called out to him: "Senator, you have the vote of every thinking person!" during one of his campaign stops.

Without breaking stride, Stevenson shot back: "That's not enough, madam. We need a majority!"

[SoLeftIAmRight]

26. lol

...

[Andy823]

36. And if the numbers were

75 for Bernie and 25 for Hillary you would be saying the same thing, right? Some how I kind of doubt it.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

37. The general election will is won in the swing states

no spin

[obamanut2012]

39. Then we should only have primaries in NC, Ohio, Forida?

Maybe a few others?

[SoLeftIAmRight]

42. you should be in the Olympics - that was a huge jump

Who can win the swing states?

I want to win - I think Sanders has a better chance to win the swing states.

I will not be up late on election night waiting for the results from SC
The supreme court will not be called on to give Alabama to the republicans

[mythology]

45. And you think telling a large group of black people

That if only they were better educated they would vote for your candidate is a good idea why? That seems a bit counter productive.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

46. you should be in the Olympics - that was a huge jump

I was talking about the white redneck fuckups

I lived much of my early years in the south - lots of stupid - and the dems were not like Oregon dems.

[Human101948]

4. Absentee ballots = old folks = Hillary strength...

She's not getting those numbers with young people. In fact, it is the reverse.

That being said, there are not enough young people to overcome the old folks.

[Goblinmonger]

15. "there are not enough young people to overcome the old folks."

You do know that Millennials outnumber Boomers, right? And Bernie does better with Gen Xers, too.

So, I don't think your conclusion really holds much water.

[Human101948]

25. They just can't be relied on to vote...

http://www.people-press.org/2006/10/18/who-votes-who-doesnt-and-why/

[WI_DEM]

16. Actually in SC polls seem to indicate that they are splitting the younger vote

and I don't care who is casting them at least they bother to vote.

[Human101948]

24. You're correct...I was basing my comment on earlier results

Clinton has a huge overall lead in South Carolina, 60 to 32 percent, according to the poll. Sanders has a slight advantage among voters under age 45: 49 percent to 43 percent, while Clinton leads 69 to 23 among older Democrats.

But the two candidates being nearly at parity among voters under age 45 would be a huge coup for Clinton. In Iowa and New Hampshire, young voters overwhelmingly favored Sanders. He won more than 80 percent of Democratic voters under age 30 in both states, and more than 55 percent of those between ages 30 and 44....

...The South Carolina survey showed that among blacks under age 45, Clinton had 52 percent support, Sanders 35 percent, with 13 percent undecided.

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/south-carolina-poll-younger-blacks-lean-toward-clinton-not-sanders-n521091

However, I still think that most absentee voters are old folks. And old folks generally can be depended on to vote in greater percentages of their range.

[Skwmom]

20. It was reported that the Clyburn machine was bringing out the vote. n/t

[NurseJackie]

27. organization and feet on the ground is important...

... and is vital to success.

[Lucinda]

30. KNR

[zappaman]

32. Sorry, but you aren't factoring twitter numbers!

#berniemath

[wildeyed]

34. And what about online polls?

Those count too.

[MaggieD]

35. Awesome! Saturday is going to be fun!