Nate Silver has updated the margins Bernie needs to beat.

[Chichiri]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-doesnt-need-momentum-he-needs-to-win-these-states/

The numbers on the left-hand side reflect the margin we would expect to see in a given state if Bernie and Hillary are polling 50-50 nationwide, based on demographics and so on. The numbers on the right-hand side reflect the margin at which Bernie is currently polling in that state.

[zappaman]

1. Essentially even.

#berniemath

[BlueCaliDem]

3. Hah!

[fun n serious]

2. Quote from article..

"I must emphasize that these are not predictions of what will happen in these states. Instead, they’re estimates of what would happen if the national vote were evenly divided between Sanders and Clinton (which it isn’t yet). In other words, they tell us whether each state is Sanders-leaning or Clinton-leaning relative to the national average. Sanders will need to beat these targets to have a shot at the nomination, especially since a tie would probably go to Clinton because of superdelegates. As you can see, however, Sanders is currently running behind these benchmarks in states with recent polling."

[mcar]

4. K&R

[Stuckinthebush]

5. Ugly math for the Bern

The force isn't with him

[Adrahil]

6. We'll know a LOT more this time next week. nt

[NastyRiffraff]

7. Uh oh...

Looking bad for Bernie.K&R, BTW Chichiri!

[George II]

8. Interesting.

[DesertRat]

9. k&r

[NurseJackie]

10. So ... it's a virtual tie?

#berniemath

[Number23]

11. And the fevered We Love Negroes posts in this forum become crystal clear

Although no less hilarious.