New Poll Shows Sanders Ahead of Clinton by Widest Margin Yet

[LongTomH]

OK, Bernie will probably lose South Carolina; but, I wouldn't order the cake for the coronation yet! The latest Reuters/Ipso poll shows Bernie ahead nationally by six points:

The survey, released Tuesday, shows Sanders polling at 41.7 percent among 998 likely Democratic voters, while Clinton got 35.5 percent.

As Salon points out, Reuters' daily tracking feature "illustrates that Sanders has led Clinton nationally for a majority of days in February."

The figures come just ahead of the Democratic primary in South Carolina on February 27, where Sanders is still trailing the former secretary of state. According to Bloomberg, the senator has 200 paid staffers on the ground in South Carolina, making it his biggest state operation thus far.

As Salon's deputy politics editor Sophia Tesfaye writes:

Although the next Democratic showdown does not look promising for the Sanders campaign, the Vermont senator looks to blunt any sense of momentum Clinton may have after a win in both Nevada and South Carolina by picking off crucial Super Tuesday states. Sanders has been steadily gaining ground in Georgia and Texas, which award approximately 20 percent of total delegates between the two of them.

[CentralMass]

1. That sound that you hear is the gnashing of teeth.

[TheFarseer]

2. Why aren't any of those states voting!

I think if he can win 6 of the 12 places voting on tues, this could still be do-able.

[kristopher]

7. Schedule is front loaded for conservatives, so you are endorsing the narrative they want.

Why not point out that it isn't a winner take all system so Bernie is going to get a lot of delegates even if he only wins a few states. Then, his turn starts shortly after but even then his strongest base states still won't be until the very end end.

It's deliberately designed to keep out real economic liberals.

[AzDar]

3. The Revolution MAY Be Televised... (if Comcast allows it.)

Go, Bernie... GO!!

[Lucinda]

4. The poll in question is bogus. it is one where you can put whatever filters you want

on raw data. They are quoting numbers from this non weighted unfiltered version:

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/

[revbones]

8. It's "likely Democratic voters"

You can filter the data if you want a subset that will show Hillary winning, but overall Sanders leads.

Realistically you're not going to have only those aged 50+ with $100k income voting.

[Lucinda]

12. No it's not. Likely Dem voters is 60/35 Hillary:

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/LIKELY_PRIMARY15:1,PARTY_ID_:1

[Godhumor]

13. No, it is not likely Democratic voters

There is a specific filter for likely Democratic voters. That result everyone is discussing is for the unfiltered total of all respondents regardless of political leaning, registration etc. Using the actual likely voter screen is Clinton +7. And using Reuters official total for the week, as found on Pollster, is Clinton +5.

[whatchamacallit]

5. "He needs to quit"

[DrDan]

6. you forgot this key data

Reuters also found that Sanders would win in a landslide against GOP frontrunner Donald Trump, taking 43.6 percent to Trump's 30.4 percent, in a survey of 1,574 respondents.

beat trump by 13 . . . geez louise - must be an on-line poll

[Attorney in Texas]

9. Even without considering this YUGE poll, it is virtually tied among all likely voters:

Real Clear Politics and Pollster show the national race with Hillary about 5% ahead, but those aggregations include polls of likely voters (most accurate) and mere registered voters and all adults, and when you aggregate the polls of only likely voters, Hillary's lead falls by half:



If you then cut out a complete bullshit pollster like Gravis (showed huge pro-Hillary house effects in Iowa and New Hampshire), the national race is tied:

[kgnu_fan]

10. K&R

[vdogg]

11. We've debunked this poll so many times its ridiculous

Yet like a cockroach, it never dies. If Bernie is ahead 6 points national then he'll win all Super Tuesday states in a landslide. See you March 1st.

[Maedhros]

15. Yes, polls can be tricky as predictive tools.

What this poll shows is that, nationally, Bernie Sanders is more popular than Hillary Clinton. Registered Democrats probably skew Hillary's way, because they tend to be timid and select what they consider to be the safest choice - which, in this context, means 'name recognition.'

Much of Sanders' support comes from those who have been marginalized and ignored by the Party - independents and unregistered voters. His challenge is to activate those people, and so far he appears to be succeeding.

[BillZBubb]

17. That's silly. The Super Tuesday states are all red, with a lot of conservaDems.

That's where Hillary's base of support resides. Look for Sanders to start booming after Super Tuesday when more blue states start voting.

[vdogg]

18. Blue states like Michigan and Florida

Where Hillary is up double digits? We really need to retire this red states don't matter meme too. Those Dems in red states still vote for congress too...

[BillZBubb]

21. Florida is a purple state, not blue.

The red states don't matter for us in the electoral vote. The red states are SO gerrymandered they hardly matter in the congressional vote either. You know that (I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt).

[MaggieD]

14. LOL - here is reality

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/march1dem.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-3556.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html

National polls are meaningless at this point.

[amborin]

16. K&R

[restorefreedom]

19. kick nt

[Vote2016]

20. kicked and rec'd

[JudyM]

22. Please volunteer for Bernie for a few hours this weekend... In any state, especially SC and Sup Tues