The 2012 Republican Presidential nomination process has been anything but traditional and following the most recent round of primary and caucus results, this election year now appears poised to produce a historic political convention, the likes of which has not been seen in the lifetime of most Americans. For nearly six decades, each political party convened every four years to select their respective nominees for President & Vice-President, and only twice in all that time has a national party convention opened with no clear pre-determined nominee. Based on the current state of the Republican presidential contest, rules for delegate apportionment, remaining state delegates at stake and contrary to popular conventional wisdom, a historic 2012 Republican Party brokered convention now seems not only likely, but inevitable.
To win the Republican Party nomination for President, a candidate must secure a simple majority (1,144) of the total delegates attending the national party convention scheduled for late August in Tampa, Florida. The failure of any single candidate to reach this pledged delegate threshold triggers what has traditionally been referred to as a brokered convention and optimistically may be considered nothing less than controlled chaos. As this year’s Republican Presidential nomination process continues to unfold, the likelihood of this potentially dangerously deadlocked outcome seems destined to create modern-day political convention history.
In the first nine primary or caucus contests held so far this nomination cycle, there have been three different winners and no candidate has won a majority of votes in any contests that have actually awarded or pledged convention delegates. Even though Mitt Romney has a lead in the current delegate allocation, as long as there are at least three candidates remaining in the nomination race and if no candidate secures the magic 50% delegate majority to secure the party’s nomination, political history buffs and neophytes alike will see their dream scenario of a modern-day political food fight play out right before their eyes, and more importantly, before the eyes of the American voting electorate.
Over the next few weeks, I will release a series of articles outlining the following:
Historical look at brokered political conventions in America and their impact on the party, eventual nominee and the general election
Analysis of the current process for state delegate selection and the adopted rules dictating how the convention will be conducted
Review of impending convention battles over rules, delegate participation, party platform ideology and the ultimate nomination of a Presidential candidate
This series will conclude and be posted in advance of the scheduled March 6, 2012 “Super Tuesday” election, at which time I fully expect (Based upon the apportionment of delegates), the inevitability of a brokered convention becomes not just painfully obvious but true reality television later this summer and these articles may serve as a roadmap to give those late-comer’s to the “Brokered Convention Bandwagon” an opportunity to quickly catch up.
Al Yorston is a political analyst and social commentator, please submit any inquiries or comments to: al.yorston@hotmail.com or follow on twitter at: political_al
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