Would most of America let a bunch of southern states tell them who to vote for?

[AZ Progressive]

Then how can someone come to the conclusion that this race would be over if Hillary wins a bunch of southern states on Super Tuesday?

[JI7]

1. based on delegates count along with assumptions she will win new york and california

[reformist2]

24. Just like in 2008. It wasn't enough for her to win the nomination.

[Happenstance24]

27. She wasn't in this position in 08, Obama kinda was. Who won then? -nt

[reformist2]

64. Hillary won New York and California and Texas and Florida in 2008. Still lost to Obama.

[Happenstance24]

77. Because Obama ran up the delegate total like she is doing now. -nt

[Live and Learn]

25. She won't. nt

[GummyBearz]

44. She's not winning CA based on my polling

Granted my office water cooler talk is a small sample size. But its all for Bernie

[braddy]

2. I don't know about this specific question but

when people wonder about how the South figures into national discussions they should know why.

Northeast 56,283,891 17.5%
Midwest 67,907,403 21.1%
West 76,044,679 23.7%
South 121,182,847 37.7%

[PowerToThePeople]

4. And 60%+ of the 120 million are repukes.

What was the percentage of Democrats in SC? 30% or less?



https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_states_and_blue_states

[Hortensis]

6. Not only are most southerners cons, BUT Democrats

average more conservative than other regions also.

All citizens are equal in the voting booth. We all get one vote. Except for people like the Kochs and their ilk, who have no respect for the rights of ALL citizens to have their say.

[PowerToThePeople]

9. Delegates are given based on total population

Iirc, so all those southern repukes get counted towards our primary results.

[Hortensis]

11. And rural votes count for more than urban,

and rural areas trend more conservative. The electoral college was set up as a check onthe power of the people. It's very imperfect, but the principle is the same:

One DU Bernie supporter is no more a citizen or more important than one SC Democrat or Republican. That's the way it is.

Many forms of government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…

At the bottom of all the tributes paid to democracy is the little man, walking into the little booth, with a little pencil, making a little cross on a little bit of paper—no amount of rhetoric or voluminous discussion can possibly diminish the overwhelming importance of that point. - Winston Churchill

[PowerToThePeople]

12. That is not democratic

Eom

[Hortensis]

15. If I don't "see" you again, I'll know you're off to

find a better world. No matter how we improve our democracy in this one, it will never meet the standard of true democracy. It literally cannot. In the meantime, we work with what we have and work toward chances to improve it.

Never forgetting that at least a third of the population does not believe in and is not suited to democracy by nature.

[PowerToThePeople]

16. Fail.

[rbrnmw]

38. Disenfranchising African Americans as you are proposing is what's

not Democratic. The south has the largest African American Democrats

[kiva]

39. And they live in states that have

consistently voted R in the presidential elections for the last 40 years, and pretty much every political prognosticator shows them as R again this year.

Are you suggesting that all of the states that don't have caucuses or primaries in the first few weeks of the cycle have 'disenfranchised' their voters? Because I don't think 'disenfranchised' means what you think it means.

[PowerToThePeople]

71. I mever insinuated anything like that.

I am all for primary voting. No delegates, just one person one vote. Candidate with the most votes wins. That is democratic.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

37. Hmmm... it makes for a discussion of demarcations. I'll see what I get. But I like this, thanks

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

42. Confirmed. Thanks.

[JimDandy]

76. Are those 2014 census data? Which states are included in each of your categories? n/t

[frustrated_lefty]

3. There is a certain amount of hypocrisy

given the amount of South-bashing that occurs on these forums.

Thread after thread declares the faults of the south. That's fair, but it's really hypocritical to then declare these very same states as representative of the whole.

[ms liberty]

60. This. n/t

[Hortensis]

5. It's the math, AZ. The numbers.

If much of the west voted in a large block on Tuesday instead, any big winner would be extremely hard to beat from then on.

A lot of people here were very happy the election was kicked off with two of the very few states Bernie was strong in, with the press claiming the winner would have a strong advantage for the rest of the race. How fair was that? It gave Bernie a far better start than more diverse states more representative of America would have.

[draa]

7. Would a bunch of Americans let lying assholes tell them who to vote for?

That's the question people should be asking. Are they willing to vote for a lying asshole if the lies are directed at their candidate. If Clinton wins the nomination you'll need an answer.

[PatrickforO]

8. Super Tuesday yields about 20% of delegates, and it is arguably Bernie's

worst 20%. It gets better after that for him, or should, so his assertion that he's staying in the race is a good one. Plus, he should carry at least a couple of states on Tuesday.

[Hortensis]

10. Do you guys see where hyperpartisanship is taking you?

You are angry at and insulting most liberals for not voting for your candidate.
You are angry at and insulting blacks for not voting for your candidate.
You are angry at and insulting southerners not voting for your candidate.

Are you really going to carry on like this across the rest of the nation, ending up angry with and despising all regions, except perhaps the northeast, and all minority voting blocks?

Look what you're doing. Stop INSULTING AND BEING HOSTILE toward everyone who does not vote for Bernie before you actually are insulting and hostile toward the whole damned nation.

And stop right now this nasty little under-theme that somehow their votes are not as legitimate as yours.

[MADem]

22. Charles Blow had something to say on this sort of attitude.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/11/opinion/campaign-stops/stop-bernie-splaining-to-black-voters.html

And to the points you made.

[Hortensis]

34. That is a good piece, thanks, MADem. Black voting

power is definitely being courted, their support necessary to win not just the primary but the general. Do people tend to see themselves being used as a weapon this election, tho, instead of as people who no longer allow themselves to be dismissed?

(I'm having trouble seeing that the revolution on the right is likely a danger to us, tho, more than a normally united GOP with a candidate most voters liked would be. ??)

[MADem]

40. People are individuals and I think most people don't see themselves as a "bloc" first and foremost

even as they realize they are part of group that is being courted. Who doesn't want their voice heard, their priorities recognized and pushed to the top of the list? I think there is the sense of that sort of power.

The right isn't our problem NOW, but they are pretty good at driving wedges if they stop and think about it, and adjust their message a tad. And they might do that if they're more interested in holding on to power than sticking to hard and fast principles. They'll "catapult the propaganda" sufficiently to rope in a few people who believe that they have their best interests at heart. I have old family friends in Houston who are decidedly UN-white and swirly, who have been voting for wingnuts for years. The only reason I can come up with is that they want to fit in at work, they buy the bullshit their boss tells them, and they have religious opposition to choice and marriage equality. You just can't talk to 'em about politics--they're completely voting against their interests yet they do it (or at least profess to--who knows--if they're secret liberals they won't tell us) over and over again.

[Hortensis]

52. As long as the tilt is toward feeling like players

and not just markers or weapons.

Your friends sound to me like strong conservatives who can't stomach voting Democrat and are too assertive to refuse to be involved. I've run into a few myself, and it's definitely been about four decades since I was foolish enough to ask someone, curiously, "why?" Let's just say it wasn't anyone who wanted me for a friend, and she had her whys.

[MADem]

62. I agree with that--and the tilt is towards the Democratic Party as the party of

'player-constituencies.'

My friends go back a half century or more, and they just are bone head dumb, and they prove the adage that yes, minorities CAN be bigots too. But they're like family, we have known them so long, so I hold my nose and my tongue when I see them, and talk about the old days, if you know what I mean!

[Hortensis]

63. Oh, I do! You can like and respect a lot of people,

and tolerate just about everyone else, as long as conversation sticks to comfy little domestic doings.

[GummyBearz]

45. You felt insulted?

" Stop INSULTING AND BEING HOSTILE "....

That poster pointed out that super Tuesday is ~20% of the vote
That poster pointed out that super Tuesday states are mostly against Bernie

What exactly is insulting or hostile about pointing that out? Are posters allowed to point out the silver linings for their preferred candidate? Gee, what a crazy thing to do...

[Waiting For Everyman]

49. The poster you addressed expressed no such thing.

Accusing people of things they didn't do is called a smear. You're lucky if no one alerts on that.

The projection is getting to be near 100%.

[BillZBubb]

55. Hortensis's Dictionary: hyperpartisanship (n) - Not supporting Hillary Clinton. Dealing in facts.

[Henhouse]

69. Here...here....

[EndElectoral]

46. Going to be fun after that. Bernie does need a good showing in Massachusetts though.

[Recursion]

13. Because the sun belt is where the people are now (nt)

[jmowreader]

14. It will be very hard for Bernie to gain any momentum after Tuesday

But that's what is going to happen when he only wins his own 26-delegate state and loses ten plus American Samoa.

[rjsquirrel]

17. Yeah they're full of

African Americans.

How non-representative of good white liberal states like Vermont or Iowa.

[stonecutter357]

18. +1

[PowerToThePeople]

20. The only colors cared about are red and blue.

Idaho is extremely white skinned, yet a very red state. I do not think they should have much say in a blue candidate either. No red state should hold much sway.

[rjsquirrel]

23. Idaho?

Who is talking about Idaho?

African Americans in southern states are loyal democrats over a long period of time.

Damn the sour grapes are stinky today around here.

New Hampshire is in no way representative of the national electorate. You got that first.

Anyway HRC will win your big coastal diverse liberal states easily. Do you really want to start in New York or California? Fine with me but if we did that this year Bernie would be long gone.

[stonecutter357]

19. black votes matter.

[Lizzie Poppet]

58. But they don't matter MORE.

Stacking the early primaries in the South increases the relative importance of both black and conservative Democrat votes. Hard to argue otherwise.

Carlin was 100% correct: the game is rigged...

[mythology]

65. The race started with Iowa and New Hampshire

Both states that are heavily white and heavily liberal among the primary electorate. Nevada and South Carolina were bumped up to provide a counter balance.

[AZ Progressive]

68. Like you would have said that in 2008...

[stonecutter357]

70. I voted for obama both times.

And my wife is out of town on super Tuesday taking care of her parents. So i gave Her my vote, guess who it is for...

[DrDan]

21. how about limiting to them to 3/5 of a vote - based on what I read last night, I am sure

some would support that

[Renew Deal]

26. 1. Math. 2. She's about to win everywhere else too.

[SidDithers]

28. You'll always have New Hampshire...nt

Sid

[MADem]

41. Half their Congressional delegation is Republican, these days! nt

[GreydeeThos]

29. Are southern states not part of the United States?

Are you advocating the disenfranchisement of a group of citizens so you can get your way?

[EndElectoral]

47. Some of those states think not. They're Repub states. Have been since Johnson and Civil Rights Leg.

[GreydeeThos]

75. Do you advocate discounting Democrats who happen to live in red states?

Or is it more like the ultra smart northern liberals should be making all the decisions because those inarticulate southern bumpkins are too stupid to know what's good for them?

[AZ Progressive]

67. No, I'm advocating that Southern States should not get to decide who is the Democratic nominee

The South is only 15 out of 50 states.

[GreydeeThos]

73. You prefer a group of 15 Northeastern states that think like you

Hey try this:

In your OP, substitute an ethnicity descriptor instead of " southern states " and see how long it takes to get a hide.

[bigwillq]

30. Bernie is done.

I like him, but he should be winning by landslide. Why isn't he?
The people are speaking, and it's not for Bernie.

[PeaceNikki]

31. There's a reason these states are early in primary

Democrats in many of those states don't get to have much of a voice in the GE because they are shouted down by the GOP. It seems many here would prefer to shout them down in the primaries as well.

[obamanut2012]

48. All of these threads are ticking me off

I'm Southern, a Democratic Socialist and gay, and have lived in three southern states, two of which are now considered light blue.

And in the red states, the Dems are not REPUBLICANS, they are Dems. Often very left dems.

So tired of being told my vote doesn't count in primaries.

UGH.

[PeaceNikki]

50. I live in a very red county in Wisconsin. We gained some infamy during a state Supreme Court race

a few years ago. It really opened my eyes to what it must be like in the south for Democrats. Even though we're very solid red, in raw numbers, we have the third most Democrats in the state (out of 72), right behind Milwaukee and Dane County. I take got sick of people trashing my county and writing off everyone in it. There are are a ton of great, hard working Democrats here and we deserve to be heard and acknowledged.

I stand with Democrats everywhere, but especially those of us who are often dismissed. And it's especially infuriating to be dismissed by our own party.

[obamanut2012]

57. My state should go blue in November

But, why should Dems in any state that won't be dismissed and mocked? I have lived in a red red red state and it is difficult when you know you might be fired if people know you vote Dem.

My BFF is from the Bay Area, and even the thought of GOP candidate ads on TV being a reality is weird to her.

[PeaceNikki]

61. We'll go blue, too.

We do good in general elections. It's everything else we need to show up for.

[livetohike]

32. "Tell them who to vote for"? Momentum is important and this is

what will be key to Hillary's victories on Tuesday. People like a winner. The more wins, the more people take another look, or decide they are firm in their vote.

Last night, in polling, the majority of voters had their minds made up days before the election.

[TNProfessor]

33. I cannot...

wait to cast my vote for HRC this Tuesday in Tennessee. I will play a role in deciding this election.

[AzDar]

35. Exactly...

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

36. HAHAHAHAHA!!! But sometimes the calendar makes it so

My mom lives in California and she's furious that everything is settled before the biggest, most diverse, most IMPORTANT state gets to weigh in. Even time zones impact turnout in the GE. If people hear that a candidate is the projected winner, they're less inclined to vote, and that kills us down ticket because the DNC drops the ball down ticket. GOTV only applies to the top of the ticket.

[Beacool]

43. No one is telling anyone anything. You vote for whichever candidate you prefer.

And so will millions of other people.

This race will be over, for all intents and purposes, when Hillary garners enough delegates to make it impossible for Sanders to surpass her. It's a mathematical issue.

[Todays_Illusion]

51. You can give up. Why should I give up before I even have a chance to vote.

That is one reason I am surprised at this site, so many here who seem to be part of the opposition and by opposition I mean DLC Democratic, Democracy Alliance Democratic and now Third Way Democratic. Not Democratic, but conservative and entirely libertarian.



A vote for H.C. is a vote to hand over your government to the wealthiest and for pure corporate governance.

[jwirr]

53. I take one look at the state of most red states and compare

with my state MN and just feel sorry for them.

The issue in any primary is who can win the GE - states like SC will not be voting in the electoral college to make Hillary Clinton the winner.

[MineralMan]

54. It's purely a matter of delegate count, really.

There are about 800 delegates represented by the Super Tuesday elections and caucuses. That's a lot, really. Texas has the most, of course, in those states.

The 4 primary events so far were in states with relatively few delegates, and Clinton won three of the four. It all adds up. Her lead in the pledged delegate count continues to go up. It will go up quite a bit further after the Super Tuesday primaries.

I look at this site following every primary event, and will be looking at it again this Wednesday:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D

You can see the totals of the pledged delegate count there quite clearly and separate from the superdelegate count. You can also see the combined count, although the unpledged delegates can change their votes if they wish.

Right now, after the first four primary events, Hillary's lead in pledged delegates is 91 to 65. At this very early stage, she already has 26 more pledged delegates than Bernie. On Wednesday, you'll see that lead increase to well over 100 and maybe even as much as 200 more pledged delegates.

The only thing that matters in the primaries is the delegate count. Always keep in mind that pledged delegates are proportional to the actual primary election or caucus results. In a 50% to 50% primary, each candidate gets half of that state's delegates. Those elections won't change the lead. It's all proportional.

Watch the delegate count. Check who has the lead and by how much. That will determine who the nominee will be.

It's smart to also look at the unpledged superdelegate count. That might change, but not by much, unless the delegate count lead switches at some point.

It's election-year politics. The delegate count is everything.

[TDale313]

56. People listen to the media narrative

And want to vote for the winner. No, it doesn't make a ton of sense, but Bernie will need a way to regain momentum.

[Fuddnik]

59. Especially taking a cue from South Carolina.

I've been there more times than I like to remember. I never want to see it again, other than Charleston.

The rest of the state is the cradle of stupidity. And, I've said that for the last 15 years.

[Karmadillo]

66. The states we won't win are the states that should determine who wins the nomination.

Common sense, right?

[noamnety]

72. I don't like the framing of the question.

How about this: Would most Americans let one region of the country tell them who to vote for?

It's not about writing off a specific region so much as the idea that any one group should determine the election for the rest of us all. Hillary supporters for example didn't so much "write off" New Hampshire voters as not entitled to a say in the election, so much as said that losing that state didn't mean Hillary was dropping out or they were giving up.

A big part of me wishes we could just have one primary day across the country and get this shit over with - but I guess with the trend lines, it's probably better that isn't happening.

[BainsBane]

74. That's not how it works

One person, one vote, with delegates allotted proportional to the population.

S Carolinans didn't tell others how to vote. They simply cast their only ballots, and that is what far too many are having trouble dealing with.