NYTimes - South Carolina exit poll: Hillary wins almost every category including the white vote.

[DCBob]

more: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/02/27/us/elections/south-carolina-democrat-poll.html

Very good news for the Clinton campaign.

[PeaceNikki]

1. He won with white MEN, though.

Some would prefer that be the only votes that really count.

[DCBob]

4. Too bad for Bernie "young white men" are not enough to win the nomination.

[Armstead]

15. Yeah we don't like those white people, especially the young ones and nespeciually if they're male

[dsc]

24. yes white voters are utterly ignored in our primary process

they only get the first two states where they are overwhelming majorities and where the candidates live for a year or so. The poor dears, I don't know how I as a white voter get out of bed in the morning knowing my views are so utterly ignored.

[Armstead]

27. I didn't say ignored in the process

But this primary has been successfully cast in demographic marketing terms in which the targets are not white males.

I am juts sick of the whole racial cast that ws injected from the beginning -- not out of a true sense of social justice, but for cynical marketing terms.

[dsc]

32. I, for one, am glad that minorities are finally getting catered to in our process

We have had decades of them not being catered to, so it is about damn time.

[aaaaaa5a]

52. Yes. I would add that historically this party

And this country have done a terrible job nominating white Presidential candidates. It rarely if ever happens for the Democratic Party.


Oh yea.... This party just never, ever, ever nominates white males or southern white males for that matter. Just in my lifetime the party has only nominated a white southern male what, like 3 times? (Carter, Clinton, Gore). Something needs to be done quickly because clearly they have a right to feel let down by this party and our political process.

It's a shame white men are never given a fair chance by Democrats.

[DCBob]

34. Not sure how you got that from what I wrote.

[Armstead]

48. Because in the marketing mind tricks.....

They assume Clinton will win the white vote based on the "she can win" and "Bernie is a socialist." I disagree with that, but at least it's candidate and issues-based politics that has some basis in truth.

But they also decided to go further than that. They pandered to the minority vote by deceptively used Rovian attacks on Sanders -- who overall is equally or more socially progressive -- by cynically creating a false narrative and phony differences.

They started a whispering campaign and then became more blatant by distorting Sanders from the beginning. They p[ortrayed him as an "other" who has "problems with minorities and women" in contrast to her "close ties" to minorities.

Sanders was cast as the candidate of "racially ignorant" progressive white people by the Clinton campaign. And worse yet, as a secret wingnut.

If Clinton had stuck to real differences on issues in which there is an actual contrast, it would have been honest. But she couldn't do that so they brought out the reverse dog whistles of ethnic division.

It is especially, er, inappropriate because Sanders whole message is for the vast majority iof the population of all races to come together to fight for their common interests. It is a direct contract to the GOP politics oif polarization.

But Clinton did serious damage by fracturing the Democratic Coalition instead of doing an honest campaign in the primary.

[DCBob]

50. Bernie got clobbered in almost every demographic.

Even if blacks didn't vote Hillary still wins. Face it your candidate doesn't connect well with people in the south.. black or white or brown.

[Armstead]

58. Maybe she's ultimately more popular,. Maybe most Democrats want more of the same....

But I know many people -- moderate liberal Democrats -- who prefer Bernie on the issues, prefer his integrity but have fallen for the "she can win" meme. Or the "She's a woman and I need to have a woman president" meme.

My problem is the clear and very real and legitimate differences in the loyalties and principles of Clinton and Sanders -- and what they actually represent -- have not had an honest airing.

Those issues are a legitimate subject for the primary debate. But it has gotten so muddied by the Clinton/Centrist bullshit that is NOT a true counterweight to the GOP and the Corporate Wall St. Oligarchs.

Clinton Inc. (TM) is excellent at salesmanship. The Clintons/DLC Centrists (TM) are once again skillfully avoiding actual underlying issues. Focusing on the tried and true propaganda.


Of course your mileage may vary.

[DCBob]

60. Sanders positions are no doubt stronger than Hillary's from a pure liberal/progressive POV.

But in the big picture Hillary is our better candidate. Here's why I feel that way:

-- She is probably the most qualified candidate to every run for President
-- She knows how to fight back against the Republicans
-- She will have no problem raising enough money to compete with the Republican candidate
-- She has tons of connections that will help her win in November and will help her be a more effective President
-- Her husband is Bill Clinton who will be a great asset to her as First Gentleman

And she is a woman.. its time.

[Armstead]

63. I find some of your reasons for her to be problematic

"Qualified" is a matter of opinion. I prefer Bernie's resume.

You should read about Bernie's performance as Mayor. He was up against the same stereotype and the same criticisms when he first ran for that office and was branded as a do nothing ideologue. He also wealked into a hostile political environment...... But he went out and did what he is talking about -- rallied those who agreed with him to change the political situation. He hired qualified experts for management positions. AND he successfully worked with (and co-opted) Republicans and Business Interests to build an actual governing coalition that GOT THINGS DONE in ways that moderates would be happy with, including the "fill the potholes" and "balance the budget" stuff....He won reelection repeatedly, and was named one of America's Best Mayors by the relatively conservative US News and World Report.......Different scale, but same skillset.

(http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/26/us/politics/as-mayor-bernie-sanders-was-more-pragmatic-than-socialist.html)


That money thing is problematic when it comes from the wrong places. Bernie is already walking the talk of campaignb Finance reform.....He has proved his ability to get actual people to support him financially...Maybe in smaller amounts of contributions, but it adds up. Imagine if he did the same with the backing of the Democratic Party as a nominee.

Connections with whom? And see above.

Bill Clinton. Well....

Of course your mileage may vary

[RealAmericanDem]

14. McCain and Romney won white men too.

[DRI]

23. She did best with those without a college degree

She received her highest percentage of the vote from those without college degree and especially those without some college. This is from the CNN exit polls.

This is why we need college for everyone if we are ever going to become a truly progressive nation.

[PeaceNikki]

29. She did great with college grads, too!

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/primaries/SC

[yardwork]

39. Hillary won 70% of the college grad vote.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. I am cautiously optimistic she wins the Bay State on Tuesday.

Hillary beat President Obama there in 2008 by 16 points!!!

What will be the explanation/excuse if the Vermont senator loses there?

Too many people with college degrees?

Too many people with graduate degrees?

[giftedgirl77]

6. Oh you know it will be because everyone works for tech firms

& therefore part of the 1% or some other pretzel logic.

[DCBob]

7. That would be a big one.

And likely the final dagger in the hopes for Bernie to win the nomination.

[Armstead]

18. It will depend on whether the Martha Coakley or Elizabeth Warren sentiment prevails

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Who prevailed when she beat Barack Obama there by sixteen points in 2008?

It would certainly be the cherry on top of the milk shake.

[Armstead]

22. Obama was Obama -- crossed all the lines

Obama was the default choice for most democrats, IMO

A lot more divided this time.

I know a number of people who prefer Sanders but will vote for Clinton because they buy into the "She's a woman" and/or "She's the pragmatic choice to win."

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. But Hillary beat him there, despite the endorsement of the Kennedys.

This time the Kennedys are with her.

[Armstead]

36. It depends on what part of the state

Massachusetts is more of a mixed bag than it gets credit for.

I don't think it's an accident that it was Tip O'Neil who is associated with the "All politics is local" phrase

[seaglass]

77. What is that supposed to mean? Most people to the left of center voted for both. n/t

[Armstead]

79. I'm talking about the perennial tension between...

ineffectual "acceptable" candidates and ones who clearly are progressive.

Democrats do both in Massachusetts.

My point is simply that the state is not a guarantee for either candidate. It's characterized nationally as a "liberal" bastion, but a mixed bag in many ways.

[Lucinda]

64. I think the exits showed 40 or 42 percent of SC voters were college/post graduate

So that is probably out now.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

68. It was actually 19%. the nat'l average for that group is 11%/nt

[Lucinda]

69. The OP link says it was 40%

And I saw 42 on another source.


College graduate
40% of voters

[DemocratSinceBirth]

70. Sorry, I meant graduate degrees./nt

[Lucinda]

71. That's why I used the "college/post graduate" designation

They were both lumped into the % data on one or two of the exits I saw. One did break them out, and another showed the breakdown by race/ethnicity, but I didn't bookmark them, and I remembered the aggregate total which is what I used.

Thanks for the post grad numbers!

[NurseJackie]

3. Seventeen year olds can vote in primaries?

I did not know that.

[sufrommich]

5. I think in some states they can if they'll be

18 by the time the general election comes around.

[alfredo]

9. It's that way in Ky.

[dsc]

25. they must turn 18 by the time the election comes

and they can only vote in the primary not bond issues or the like.

[stonecutter357]

8. K&R!

[erlewyne]

10. When Hillary is president

I will be on record for voting for Bernie Sanders
and you will never take that away from me
(of course I have to wait a couple of weeks to vote).

I still proudly display my Dennis Kucinich posters.
He was against the war also.

Of course I have local detractors (the war mongers)
but I have something the majority of them do not
have. An honorable discharge for serving my two-years
in 67/68/69!

When Bernie Sanders is president next year I am going to be so proud !!!


GO BERNIE SANDERS !!!

[Nye Bevan]

56. Dennis Kucinich the Fox News guy? (nt)

[SoLeftIAmRight]

11. take a look

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/primaries/south-carolina-exit-poll/

why not a better break down in SC

[mdbl]

12. Sad to say but South Carolinians love people that look more republican

As Hillary does compared to Bernie.

[Zynx]

17. I struggle to find anything in Hillary's agenda that looks Republican.

If you talked about virtually anything she does, they'd burn you alive in a Republican primary.

[mdbl]

20. Hillary is going to be center-right just like Bill

Why do you think wall street wants her?

[DRI]

35. It is not the looks.

Bernie is just not known in the South. He gets no press and has not interacted with the constituencies locally one is required to win. As someone who has worked on a lot of Democratic campaigns in the South the people are into knowing someone, family ties, and community. Hillary has made those connections over the years and senior family members give her the nod. That nod has influence. Jim Clyburn is very respected and his support was worth at least ten points. His switch in support to Obama was devastating to Clinton in 08. The black pastors are respected and they were overwhelmingly for Clinton. The old line white Democratic families either have long ties to the Clinton's or did business with the Clinton administration. Only the youth vote was open to Bernie.

[yardwork]

41. Welcome to DU! Excellent post.

[mdbl]

72. SC has a disproportionate share of poor people

Voting for Clinton is not in their best interest. Too bad they didn't know that.

[mcar]

13. K&R

[treestar]

16. Even men. Whoah.

The Democrats in South Carolina - yeah!

[Skwmom]

21. They changed the number for the 17-29 category. Amazing.

[DCBob]

26. No sure what you mean.

Changed from what to what?

[casperthegm]

28. How did Clinton do on the most trustworthy vote? n/t

[DCBob]

31. Very well..

[casperthegm]

42. That's disappointing

There are so many things that she's lied, flip flopped on and made poor decisions about. Things like Keystone, TPP, Iraq, the no-fly zone, money from Wall Street, the email investigation, the transcripts. These are actual issues, not rhetoric. It's almost like the blind support from Trump supporters; facts don't seem to matter when it comes to trust.

[DCBob]

43. Dont believe everything you read and hear in RW media.

Hillary has been an outstanding, trustworthy public servant for decades. The voters in SC know that.

[casperthegm]

49. I'm glad you feel that way

But my views are based on my own research and the facts. The facts are below. This is not rhetoric. These are real issues that I think we should be engaging in discussion about. If you think I'm presenting them in a way that is not factual feel free to discuss. .

Clinton’s position on Keystone (or lack of one). She waited until the same week that Obama made his decision before announcing where she stood. That's not standing up for the environment. That's politics.

Wall Street money. Whether it's impression or reality, it's there and it can't help but make me wonder. Generally speaking, it's hard to imagine the banks and Wall Street throwing all of that money at her and saying "here you go, we don't expect anything in return."

Her opposition to Glass Steagall. Though I do recall her telling the banks to "cut it out." Thanks Hillary.

Her Iraq vote. You may be sick of hearing about it but it's a big deal. It was poor judgement and lack of foresight. Sanders saw that it would destabilize the region. And it did. Now we not have the legacy of the Iraq war, we have the current ISIS situation.

Speaking of that, there is the no-fly zone proposal. Another poor foreign policy decision. What happens when Russian jets cross that line? You have to be prepared for that and I don't see it.

The email and server investigation by the FBI. Sorry, it's real. It very well could end up being nothing in the end, but what if it's not? What if it drags on until the general election and then she gets indicted? Then you end up with a republican in the White House.

Gay marriage. You can see how she has flip flopped over the years, as confirmed via politifact. Another change based on the political winds.

Her support of the TPP, which will send US jobs overseas.

And..the transcripts.

[DCBob]

51. Most Democrats have no problem with any of that.

Most if not all of those issues are complex and would require a lengthy discussion on why she holds the positions she does. Most issues are not simply black in white and in fact on some issues politicians do change their minds.. shock!

[casperthegm]

61. Not sure I agree with "most democrats"

Democrats are nearly 50/50 between Clinton and Sanders. I suspect a large portion of the Sanders supporters like him because they trust him and the choices/decisions he's made on these issues vs those of Clinton. Makes sense to me. And I think we'll have to agree to disagree as to how complex the issues really are. It's funny how when it comes to Clinton, explaining things take so much time, while with Sanders things are cut and dry, because he hasn't been on the wrong side of history very often.

[DCBob]

62. In all polling I have seen Democrats always lean strongly to Hillary.

Bernie has only been able to keep it close with Independents.

[DesertRat]

30. k&r!

[George II]

37. Interesting observation about the % of the groups....

...for months people have been complaining about the high percentage of "older" voters polled vs. younger, as that wasn't representative of the electorate.

News flash - the 65 and over group was HIGHER than the 17 to 29, and 45 and over represented more than TWO THIRDS of all who voted.

Yet another Sanders supporter myth debunked.

[DCBob]

40. That is interesting... didnt notice that before.

Thanks!

[bigtree]

38. k&r

[JackRiddler]

44. Independents: 53 percent for Sanders

New D-primary voters: for Sanders.

White men, for whatever it's worth: Sanders.

Who looks stronger in November?

And this is South Carolina, okay? Was New Hampshire indicative of the nation. (About the same.) 46 states to go.

[DCBob]

45. I saw that too.

Clearly Bernie connects with Independents better than Hillary but the question is who will they vote for when Hillary is matched up against Trump.

[TM99]

53. Like I said last night,

He has the youth and independent voters particularly those who voted for the first time.

Without those, she can not win the GE. Sorry to burst your happy bubble.

[DCBob]

54. She will do fine in the general.

How can Trump win Florida with its high percentage of blacks and latinos? Without Florida there is little to no chance a Republican can win.

[TM99]

55. Those demographics alone are not sufficient.

Cross-overs, independents, low voter turnout, all three of those alone would cancel the supposed minority strengths in FL and any other state.

[DCBob]

57. I cannot imagine a low voter turnout this year with Trump versus Hillary.

It might set all time records... which will be good for us.

BTW.. black plus hispanic will be about 40% of the vote in FL... that will have major impact if Trump is the nominee.

[TM99]

66. It is already apparent.

Sanders produces enthusiasm and apparently not enough to raise turn out.

Clinton has trust issues and there is a definite lack of enthusiasm and turn out is low as well.

[DCBob]

74. Primary turnout is not necessarily correlated with general election turnout.

I suspect Trump will bring them out in droves.. on both sides. Plus the fact there is so much at stake in this election. Plus the media will no doubt sensationalize it. That all points to big turnout in my opinion.

[TM99]

80. True, and yet

one can look at previous GE where the youth vote made a positive difference (2008 Obama) and failed us (2010, 2012, & 2014).

We also have to factor the dramatic changes in Democratic Party membership since Obama took office and DWS has run the DNC. It is at an historic low of 23%!! Less than a quarter of Americans that are registered are Democrats.

Independents will win or lose this election. Leftist independents are socialists, Greens, traditional FDR progressives who have left the Democratic Party, etc. All of these groups have been relentlessly attacked, smeared, and taken for granted for decades now. We have had enough of LOTE voting. We have had enough of being called 'retarded', emo-progs, naive, unicorn lovers, and dirty fucking hippies. We have had enough of New Dems campaigning on progressive issues and then fucking us out of them once elected without even trying. We are sick of being told to just wait, incremental change is coming, it will happen, really, maybe next election when we finally have all the power to make those changes. And yet election after election on the state and national level sees the DNC loses more and more Democratic elected representatives.

And this election season is no different. Clinton supporters here are vile in their right wing attacks saying that we just want 'free stuff', that Sanders doesn't have a magical wand, and white allies are not needed. Brock and the Clinton Machine are burning through bridges so fast that they won't be able to pivot left even if they wanted to soon.

No, there will be a very small GE turnout if Clinton gets the nomination. She will lose, and then we all lose.

[JackRiddler]

67. it has the potential to be the lowest turnout ever

but it could also be high.

Clinton alone will produce a low turnout. The difference would be Trump, who will also get a low turnout. The question becomes, just how great will the anti-Trump repugnance factor? That's what could bring out the biggest surge, against him. (I don't think Clinton inspires so much anti-Clinton outside the predictable Republican base.) Trump's been trying to dress himself more mainstream the last couple of weeks, in case you didn't notice. The bastard actually wants to win.

[DCBob]

76. Trump will create tremendous interest and emotion in this election ftom all directions.

People either hate him or love him. That will drive turnout... imo.

[pangaia]

46. I congratulater her.

I don't know how she managed to pull it out with everything going against her.

[Trust Buster]

47. Insults aside, I see very little evidence in those numbers that speaks to a revolution.

[Gothmog]

59. These are great numbers for HRC

[amborin]

65. You left out the CRucial breakdowns: Bernie Won Indies & White Males; Bernie Won Hispanics in Nevada

HIllary would LOSE GE

[Beacool]

73. No, she won't.

[EndElectoral]

75. This is a lost state in the GE anyway.

[DCBob]

78. Which has nothing to do with the Democratic primary.

What's significant is that what happened in SC is likely to play out similarly in several southern states on Tuesday and beyond. Not a good sign for Bernie.