Basketball math for all those calling the game over...or knowing it isn't:

[islandmkl]

Through yesterday:

Hillary 91 Pledged, 455 Supers

Bernie 65 Pledged, 18 Supers

If this was a college basketball game with two 20-minutes halves...here is where we would be in the game based on total delegates in play:

Pledged delegates: 1 minute, 32 seconds into the half....with Supers: 5 minutes, 12 seconds into the first half...

now, being a Kansas Jayhawk fan I know one thing...there has never been a basketball game of any magnitude that was decided this early...I remember a game in 2008 (coincidentally) for the NCAA Championship, KU down by 9 with 2:12 LEFT IN THE GAME against Memphis...Kansas ties with virtually no time left and wins in overtime...

it ain't over till it's over...

and it ain't over, yet...

[PWPippin]

1. Bernie loves basketball.

And he's a long distance runner. He's far from calling it over and so are we his supporters and believers.

[madokie]

6. Bernie never expected to win SC

considering that he is a relatively unknown there I think he done well. Hill fans would love for him to walk away but that ain't who he is. He's a fighter and is in this for the long haul. I'm with him all the way too. I might add

[wildeyed]

32. He didn't expect to lose by as much as he did, either.

That was just plain ugly.

[bigwillq]

2. Hillary is going to be the nominee.

She was always going to be the nominee.

[Kentonio]

3. We have always been at war with Eurasia..

[autonomous]

5. Captures their intent perfectly

[Fast Walker 52]

26. yeah, that's not creepy at all!

[Plucketeer]

37. May well turn out like that

And if that IS the case (that she was ALWAYS the nominee), it'll simply give MORE credence to Bernie's assertion that the system is rigged. All these phony-baloney Super Delegates - all throwing in so early in the game - you don't suppose they got "the memo" in advance possibly???
This race has been malodorous from the start. Dog farts would be less offensive.

[bigwillq]

44. She was always going to be the nominee

Because she has/had more people willing to vote for her. She has huge name recognition, a well-established career in politics and public life and a reasonably successful record.

[Plucketeer]

45. Bozo the clown and Donald Trump have HUGE name recognition

But I don't see how that's a qualifier to put them in the White House. Of course, she MUST BE one heck of an orator! I can not imagine anyone getting six figure sums for an hour's worth of enlightenment. So there is that. Insightful stuff. Stuff like Cut it out!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Here is a basketball analogy.

Hillary is Steph Curry. The Vermont senator is Josh Richardson.

[oh08dem]

7. Nope. She's Kobe.

A divisive big name that should've retired years ago, but is still hogging the limelight and being an albatross to the team.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. I am not a fan of Kobe Bryant but he did win five NBA championships.

And since you brought up the Lakers the Vermont senator would be Slava Medvedenko, a player of limited utility, who quickly sank into obscurity.

[islandmkl]

9. here is a better one: Danny Manning and cast of 'no-names') in 1988

fighting as a #6 seed (21st - to 24th ranked team) against #1 seed Oklahoma...Kansas: National Champ...

there are thousands of comparisons and we could do this all day...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Be my guest. The Vermont senator is the Cleveland Cavaliers and Hillary Is the Los Angeles Lakers.

http://espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=310111013

[oh08dem]

11. And Hillary is Christian Laettner cause everyone hates her.

Or Sam Bowie, the guy who got drafted before Jordan but ended up being a bust.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Senator Sanders is Shandon Anderson.

Who's Shandon Anderson?

[oh08dem]

13. I heard Rubio is Spike Lee... C-H-O-K-E

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Spike is a Knicks fan but I won't hold that against him./nt

[DCBob]

15. Not the same situation..

The way delegate allocation works it will be very difficult for Bernie to recover from a 100 point deficit which is likely after Super Tuesday. Also you need to factor in that there are still some big states following Super Tuesday (eg.. NY, NJ, FL, MS, NC, PA, MD) that Hillary will do well no matter what. So even if Bernie does well in some other northern or west coast states his gains will be offset by Hillary wins in those states mentioned earlier. Bottom line even though there is a long way to go the remaining part of the game is heavily tilted in Hillary's favor.

[islandmkl]

16. Super Tuesday 2016 is actually Semi-super Tuesday compared to 2008....

@21% of delegates in play versus @52% in 2008...

we all know that the same math can be used, appropriately and legitimately, to show various results...

I, for one, am willing to watch the real math play itself out after each primary...

when it is ACTUALLY mathematically 'over' we will know...not before

[DCBob]

20. True but still a large chunk of delegates.

Hillary will likely do very well which will give her even more momentum into the states that follow.

[SidDithers]

17. Your analogy is flawed...

in basketball, there are, theoretically, and infinite number of points available to either team.

In the Democratic Primary, both candidates are competing for a limited number of delegates. It's not "who gets the most delegates", it's "who gets to 2,382 delegates first"

Once either candidate hits the magic number, the game is over. And that could happen well before the clock has counted down to the final 2:12 seconds.

Sid

[islandmkl]

19. the flaw is on the part of anyone calling the game early...

anyone addressing 'future points' is making a logical leap without any shots being taken....

[DCBob]

22. Its called predicting based on analyses of the game and the players.

Like Kobe playing one-on-one against President Obama. I would predict Kobe would win that one... and I suspect I would be right.

[hack89]

18. If there was a limit on the possible score in basketball

You might have a point. But unlike basketball Bernie can't create new delegates - he can only split the pool with HRC. And if she gets a bunch up front then Bernie ' s required margins of victory keeps getting bigger. And he has yet to show his "revolution " can deliver enough big victories.

[restorefreedom]

21. i will translate to football

i will divide by 5 to make it realistic

91/5= 18
65/5= 13

an 18-13 football game at the end of the first quarter is no biggie at all. even halftime, which this is not. hell even the third or fourth quarters, which, again, this is not.

just getting started, folks...

[islandmkl]

23. good one, too...being a Jayhawk fan, football is not exactly the sport of current favor!

the football team at KU is so bad that we only think of Fall as being the purgatory before basketball salvation...

[restorefreedom]

29. :) and there is always hockey season over winter....

with the body checking, etc perhaps that would have been an even more appropriate example for this election season....

[SoLeftIAmRight]

24. I will translate to football

Alabama lost to ol miss last year - the meme was that Alabama was done.

They have a name for the winners in the world

[restorefreedom]

31. excellent point!

championship score 29/15 over florida

i think it will be closer for bernie, but he will still win!!

[Tarc]

25. Proof that analogy-making isn't for everyone...

So, basketball cuteness aside... the problem for Sanders is math. He has an obvious blowout lead in one (hometown VT), and some modest leads or ties in a few others (WI, MA, OK) but trails badly in many others. Even if Sanders wins those, he'd still be ~100 delegates behind Clinton after Super Tuesday.

Where are the big state blowouts that he'd need to catch up? They don't exist.

[DemocraticWing]

28. The plan seems to be to close the gap with small states, then win CA in June.

[DCBob]

33. A big win in California for Bernie will certainly help but still probably not enough.

California has 475 pledged delegates which will be allocated proportionally. So best case scenario Bernie wins 60/40, which I doubt but say he does, that splits the delegates 285/190 a 95 delegate gain for Bernie. By June 7 he will probably be trailing by at least 300 delegates. There are no more big Bernie states after that. Hillary wins.

[brush]

39. Ahhhh . . . who says Sanders is going to win Cali . . .

with that state's substantial Latino American demographic?

[DCBob]

41. Supposedly that's Bernie big secret weapon to win the nomination.

I dont think he will win it either... just humoring them.

[restorefreedom]

30. so a ten percent delegate difference

with two thirds of the country still to vote.

not a biggie at this point

[Kaleva]

27. I think a Warriors-Pistons matchup would make for a better analogy

[RoccoR5955]

34. Just what my old idol Yogi Berra said:

It ain't over till it's over!
And it is far from over yet!

[YOHABLO]

35. It's just so obvious what is going on with the establishment DNC. Can no one see this?

Are the electorate in S.Carolina that naive? Hillary does not have anyone's back but her own. Trust me, nothing is going to change unless we get money out of this process, refute 'Citizens United' and gain a majority in the House and Senate. It's all rhetoric at this point folks whether it be the Bernie camp or the Hillary camp.

[Plucketeer]

40. Bernie's the one saying the system's rigged

He's the one who's sincere about getting the money outta politics. And I agree that that glut of cash is what's truly at the heart of the disservice we get from those >we< (LOL) elect. We can fuss and fume about this issue or that swindle, but the OVER-ARCHING power is the abundant greasing of CASH. Hell, cash should be just one more controlled substance. In fact, the addiction to IT is THE most destructive addiction of all. The chase for it and aftermath of it's use represent the most damaging and deadly repercussions we know of.

[dpatbrown]

36. Totally

It's only wishful thinking, and an attempt by Clinton folks to get everybody to think so.

[Buns_of_Fire]

38. Bernie = Superman; Hillary = Wonder Woman

I know it makes no sense. I just wanted to play, too.

[Flying Squirrel]

42. Biggest difference:

Supers can change their minds. They aren't points that have been actually scored yet. There's a reason they're called "unpledged."

[islandmkl]

43. Exactly...and even most of them are good at figuring out..

which way the wind blows...and they know winds can change...