Hillary Clinton is at 96% to win the nomination, 62% to win the presidency at predictwise

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner

[Gothmog]

1. Those numbers have really moved

Two weeks ago Clinton was at 80% to be the nominee. I wish that I purchased an option agreement at that pricing

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I am more impressed with the 62% figure.

I suspect it holds throughout the conventions.

[stonecutter357]

2. K&R!

[krawhitham]

3. Only 62% to beat Trump, my lord that is scary

[auntpurl]

5. If Hillary won by 62% in the GE that would be an enormous landslide victory

Obama won by 51% in 2012.

[krawhitham]

10. Obama won by 3.9% and the betting odds were 70-30

51.1-47.2 is winning by 3.9% not 51%

[auntpurl]

13. Apologies, I should have said Obama won 51% of the vote. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. It is better than the 2% her Democratic opponent is showing.

But that 2% figure is unintentionally deceptive because it is based on the assumption that her opponent won't be the nominee, and be in position to win the presidency in the first place. It's actually how these markets work. They are predicting events that are predicated on other events occurring.

[NurseJackie]

9. And there you have it!

[fredamae]

6. I fear if Dems aren't turning out Now

for Either Sanders or HRC-that these polls are sorely underestimating the Angry electorate. I am assuming these Polls are Statistically Assuming a certain amount of voter turnout for HRC to win the GE.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. In layman's terms these predictive markets are based on polls, voter expectations surveys...

In layman's terms these predictive markets are based on polls, voter expectations surveys, and gut , i.e., intuitive thinking.

[RoccoR5955]

11. Sure the predictwise site is headed up by a

Microsoft economist. Think again, about these predictions, and how they are being bought by the corporatists. His name is David Rothschild. You know, as in the House of Rothschild... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rothschild_family
Show me another family that is not in the pocket of the corporations.
This "prediction" is therefore HIGHLY biased.

[Alfresco]

12. K & R