Updated: Only Bernie Can Win the GE: ALL Primary Results Show:

[amborin]

Last edited Sun Feb 28, 2016, 05:47 PM - Edit history (1)

Bernie wins Independents, and this is a decisive voting block.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/primaries/NV


We know Clinton will win the Super Tuesday States, but it does NOT change the fact that ONLY Bernie can win in the GE.

Plus, Bernie will win the primaries occurring AFTER Super Tuesday.

Indies represent 43% of the electorate and primary after primary, they break in large percentages for BERNIE.

They will be the decisive bloc in the GE.

It appears that democratic voters are not just misinformed, but grossly misinformed, about whether Clinton or Sanders would do better against Republicans. Comparing the margin of support for Clinton over Sanders (30%) with the even larger 38% margin of polled Democrats who erroneously rank Clinton as a more electable candidate than Sanders suggests the possibility that their grossly erroneous belief may well account for much of their expressed preference for Clinton.

Even if not all Clinton supporters are using electability as their main criterion for preferring her in opinion polls, it would be useful for these grossly misled Democrats when casting their primary vote to consider the reason why Sanders’ outperforms Clinton against Republicans. They should remember that it is independent voters, not party loyalists, who generally determine the outcome of typically close general elections. If Democrats really want to lose the 2016 election to a Republican they should by all means choose a candidate that Independents reject. Clinton is just the candidate for that job.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/12/08/the-sanders-polling-anomaly/

[brooklynite]

1. "Bernie will win the primaries occurring AFTER Super Tuesday."

Tell us, please, which ones?

[restorefreedom]

4. well. for starters,....

Ohio +1%, West Virginia +18%, Massachusetts +3.5%, Colorado +6%, Alaska +14, Maine +15%, Vermont +74


Alaska - (Sanders 48%, Clinton 34%)

Colorado - (Sanders 49%, Clinton 43%)

Maine - (Sanders 56%, Clinton 41%)

Massachusetts - (Sanders 47.5%, Clinton 44%)

Ohio - (Sanders 45%, Clinton 44%)

Vermont - (Sanders 83%, Clinton 9%)

West Virginia - (Sanders 57%, Clinton 29%)

source:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511329699

edit...some of these i realize are tuesday states

[brooklynite]

7. Hmm, an obscure outlier poll vs the guidance of the Ohio Party Chair (whom I spoke to last week)

Which to believe?

[restorefreedom]

20. well, your contact reference is not verifiable without data, no offense to you personally or them

but the party chair has his or her own feelings and agenda.

i like to see numbers myself. but if YOU like his or her answer, then by all means, go with it.

only the votes count in the end anyway...

[brooklynite]

22. As another data point, 538 model give Clinton 95% probability...

[restorefreedom]

23. sorry, but 538 is not even on my radar...but thanks for tossing another opinion out.

frankly i would trust a fox news poll before nate

but i do appreciate the effort (truly)

[amborin]

24. this doesn't hinge on polling; it pertains to results of primaries already held

[restorefreedom]

32. ok, thx amborin :)

[DrDan]

34. Florida?

[restorefreedom]

36. what about florida? probably clinton, but it is a red state....nt

[DrDan]

38. a primary following super-Tues where Clinton has a masssive lead

I assume you caught this in the OP - "Plus, Bernie will win the primaries occurring AFTER Super Tuesday."

[restorefreedom]

42. i don't think anyone expects either candidate to win them all...

thats why this will be a long primary....

[DrDan]

43. OP claims otherwise - after super-Tuesday

[restorefreedom]

44. well, the poster can speak for him or herself,

but i am going to gues you might be reading it a little too literally. i have not seen any bernie supporter suggest that he is going to win all the primaries after tuesday.

sometimes people are typing quickly. it happens on both sides...

[DrDan]

45. agree

[restorefreedom]

48. goody! :) nt

[restorefreedom]

2. its only the first quarter, to use football

and the worst will be behind him tuesday

[DrDan]

35. the time clock leps forward quickly on super-Tuesday

well into 4th after the results come in

[restorefreedom]

37. not 4th at all, still lots of delegates up for grabs

but as march and april roll along, yes, those delegstes will get picked off....

[cwydro]

3. Time will tell.

He has no chance in the south.

[Gothmog]

5. Hypothetical match up polls are worthless and should not be relied for anything

Here is a good thread talking about these polls http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511038010

The reliance on these polls by Sanders supporters amuse me. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harrys-guide-to-2016-election-polls/

Ignore hypothetical matchups in primary season – they also measure nothing. General election polls before and during the primary season have a very wide margin of error. That’s especially the case for candidates who aren’t even in the race and therefore haven’t been treated to the onslaught of skeptical media coverage usually associated with being the candidate.

Sanders supporters have to rely on these worthless polls because it is clear that Sanders is not viable in a general election where the Kochs will be spending $887 million and the RNC candidate may spend an additional billion dollars.

No one should rely on hypo match up type polls in selecting a nominee at this stage of the race.

[amborin]

13. no one is relying on ANY polls; rather, primary results so far show that ONLY Bernie wins Indies

and no one can win the GE without them

[PonyUp]

17. Gallup: 43% of voters are independents. n/t

[Marr]

18. Uh-huh. Hillary supporters *loved* talking about her superior 'electability' when polling

actually backed it up. Now those polls are suddenly worthless and should be ignored.

[Codeine]

6. Not buying your assumption that just because they

voted Sanders in a primary that they won't support Clinton in a GE. I've spent my entire life voting for one person in the primary and a different person in the election.

It's what adults do.

[amborin]

14. that's over-generalization based on one case; totally anecdotal

[Gothmog]

8. Match up polling is worthless unless both candidates have been vetted

Polls do lie when such poling is based on bad data and premise. Nate Silver and other are clear that these polls are worthless in part because Sanders had not been vetted. Clinton has been vetted for two decades but the GOP and the press have not paid any attention to Sanders and so these polls are meaningless. Dana Milbank has some good comments on general election match up polls https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-would-be-insane-to-nominate-bernie-sanders/2016/01/26/0590e624-c472-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html?hpid=hp_opinions-for-wide-side_opinion-card-a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

Sanders and his supporters boast of polls showing him, on average, matching up slightly better against Trump than Clinton does. But those matchups are misleading: Opponents have been attacking and defining Clinton for a quarter- century, but nobody has really gone to work yet on demonizing Sanders.

Watching Sanders at Monday night’s Democratic presidential forum in Des Moines, I imagined how Trump — or another Republican nominee — would disembowel the relatively unknown Vermonter.

The first questioner from the audience asked Sanders to explain why he embraces the “socialist” label and requested that Sanders define it “so that it doesn’t concern the rest of us citizens.”

Sanders, explaining that much of what he proposes is happening in Scandinavia and Germany (a concept that itself alarms Americans who don’t want to be like socialized Europe), answered vaguely: “Creating a government that works for all of us, not just a handful of people on the top — that’s my definition of democratic socialism.”

But that’s not how Republicans will define socialism — and they’ll have the dictionary on their side. They’ll portray Sanders as one who wants the government to own and control major industries and the means of production and distribution of goods. They’ll say he wants to take away private property. That wouldn’t be fair, but it would be easy. Socialists don’t win national elections in the United States .

Sanders on Monday night also admitted he would seek massive tax increases — “one of the biggest tax hikes in history,” as moderator Chris Cuomo put it — to expand Medicare to all. Sanders, this time making a comparison with Britain and France, allowed that “hypothetically, you’re going to pay $5,000 more in taxes,” and declared, “W e will raise taxes, yes we will.” He said this would be offset by lower health-insurance premiums and protested that “it’s demagogic to say, oh, you’re paying more in taxes.”

Well, yes — and Trump is a demagogue.

Sanders also made clear he would be happy to identify Democrats as the party of big government and of wealth redistribution. When Cuomo said Sanders seemed to be saying he would grow government “bigger than ever,” Sanders didn’t quarrel, saying, “P eople want to criticize me, okay,” and “F ine, if that’s the criticism, I accept it.”

Sanders accepts it, but are Democrats ready to accept ownership of socialism, massive tax increases and a dramatic expansion of government? If so, they will lose.

Match up polls are worthless because the candidates have not been fully vetted. Sanders is very vulnerable to negative ads.

[artyteacher]

9. True eom

[amborin]

15. not relying on matchup polls; relying, rather, on results of primaries already conducted nt

[Gothmog]

26. The ones where Sanders lost 3 of the first four contests?

How does these help. Sanders did best in states with 90%+ white voters and poorly in states that have less than 90+% white voters. How does this help Sanders?

[amborin]

30. actually, Bernie did very well among Hispanics in Nevada; in fact, results show Hillary lost her gri

p on the Hispanic vote

[Gothmog]

31. Sanders is trailing Clinton by 37% with Texas Hispanic voters

You may want to check out this polling https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/02/28/clinton-trump-lead-ga-and-va-cruz-holds-tx/

[Herman4747]

19. Country voted for FDR 4 times...

and FDR is further to the left (in at least some ways) than is Bernie.

You focus on Bernie. But how about Hillary? Well, right now SHE HAS A 40% approval rating. That's right, 40%. Like Mitt Romney, she is an insincere flip-flopper. (She's also a liar). Mitt had a lot going for him in 2012, with the unemployment rate near 9%, but he still lost -- his insincerity being at least a contributing factor.

In any debate with Trump, we know that Bernie will stand strong for the 99%. But take a look at the photo below, and then tell us exactly how Hillary would be able to attack The Donald.

?h=310&w=325

Bernie Sanders' approval rating? 49%. I go with the 49%, you can go with the 40%

[Gothmog]

25. Is the US in another great depression?

[OhZone]

27. FDR was wealthy and establishment, like Hillary. nt

[Gothmog]

29. The OP relies on worthless matchup polls

These polls are flawed in that Sanders has not been vetted. Clinton has been vetted for two decades but the GOP, the Kochs, Karl Rove and Bloomberg have not started on Sanders. Match up polls are only meaningful if both candidates are equally vetted which is not the case

[TDale313]

10. The struggle will be not letting the media paint it as all over.

The road forward could be good. I agree the map is much more favorable to Sanders after Tuesday. But what these front loaded more conservative states give us - once again- is the chance for Hillary to regain her aura of inevitability/frontrunner status. I'm a Sanders supporter- But I am concerned that if Tues is a blowout the media will have their narrative and that even in the states going forward Hillary will gain momentum cause people like to vote for the perceived frontrunner.

I'm trying to see where he regains his momentum. Is there a day where he will have a huge win? Does it take a real Clinton stumble? (This isn't intended to be a downer, just looking for a bit of a pep talk myself maybe.)

[Marr]

11. DLC-types would rather lose with Clinton that win with Sanders.

That's the sad truth. They can play ball with Republicans, whether they have the White House or not. They're all doing the same bullshit kabuki theater and they all know their roles.

[amborin]

16. ^^ this ^^

[grossproffit]

12. Okay.

[AzDar]

21. But: "Surrender Bernie!!"

yeah... not today, sHillary.

[elleng]

28. 'If we are going to nominate someone who 50% of our people can't stand,

we are going to lose.'

Marco Rubio

Goes for BOTH parties.

[DrDan]

33. 26 point lead in Florida - after super-Tuesday

ahead in Mass

perhaps the Onion should not be your source of campaign trends

[grossproffit]

40. I believe that Florida has been moved into the "doesn't matter" column.

[DrDan]

41. because it will be over by then? Guess you are correct. Stand corrected.

[grossproffit]

39. The second link is from 12/8

[Betty Karlson]

46. K&R for truth!

[Cosmocat]

47. That is all fine and well

and I get the point ...

But, there is this little detail about actually winning the nomination, which is the first step in winning POTUS.