Democrats Should Be Very Nervous About Their Terrible Turnout Numbers-Low turnout equals Pres. Trump

[Attorney in Texas]

link; excerpt:

Party leaders long ago picked Clinton as their standard-bearer for 2016 and worked to clear the field of potential primary challengers. When Sanders began closing on Clinton in national polls and clobbered her in New Hampshire, the establishment bet was starting to look shaky. ... They should be very, very worried.

In primary after primary this cycle, Democratic voters just aren't showing up. Only 367,491 people cast a ballot for either Clinton or Sanders on Saturday. That's down 16 percent from the 436,219 people who came out in 2008 for Clinton and Obama. Factor in the 93,522 people who voted for John Edwards back in the day, and you can see the scope of the problem. Democrats in 2016 are only getting about two-thirds of the primary votes that they received eight years ago.

Republican turnout in the South Carolina primary, by contrast, was up more than 70 percent from 2008.

South Carolina's turnout numbers are not an anomaly. They're consistent with other primaries to date. Republicans are psyched. Democrats are demoralized.

Presidential elections increasingly hinge on each party's ability to turn out the faithful. There simply are not many truly independent voters who cast their ballots for different parties in different cycles. A big chunk of voters who identify as independents do so not because they cherish a moderate middle ground between two parties, but because they see their own party as insufficiently committed to its ideological principles. In this era, lousy primary turnout spells big trouble for the general election.

The poor Democratic turnout figures are not an indictment of Clinton alone. Maybe the DNC's decision to bury the party's debates on weekends and holidays helped Republicans generate more early enthusiasm with primetime coverage. ... It's always hard to motivate voters for four more years of the same old thing after getting eight years of it -- especially when many of those years were mired in an awful recession, followed by a weak economic recovery. Opposition parties typically have a better hand after eight years. That's why 12-year runs in the presidency by a single party don't happen very often.

If Republicans nominate Donald Trump for president -- and barring a cataclysm or a coup, they will -- ... lots of angry white people will show up to vote for Trump. We know because they're already doing so in the primaries. And a lot of Republican partisans who prefer other candidates still care more about turning the page on the Obama era than they do about Trump's flirtations with fascism (and even, at times, liberal critiques of GOP orthodoxy)... his economic pitch to the white working class holds obvious appeal in traditional Democratic strongholds in the upper Midwest -- communities that have been ravaged by the past three decades of U.S. economic policy. Even if Trump lost every other swing state in the country, turning the Rust Belt red would be enough for him to win the Electoral College... it's time to start worrying about President Trump.

Clinton cannot turn out the base despite all the king's horses and all the king's men.

Imagine if Sanders had the supposedly neutral DNC working for him and not conspiring against him?

Clinton has the establishment; Sanders has the grassroots. Only one of these forces is transferable in the general election.

[jeff47]

1. Inevitability tamps down excitement? Golly, who could have predicted. (nt)

[SidDithers]

2. I thought the Bernie Revolution was going to bring in millions of new voters?...

Sid

[Bjornsdotter]

3. I think it will in progressive areas

....now why hasn't Hillary brought in new voters in her strong areas like Iowa and South Carolina?

[elleng]

4. as you surely know, they have to be registered to vote,

and the dnc and state parties are the ones to administer this.

[SidDithers]

5. But it's candidates who run registration drives...

Hasn't the Bernie campaign been registering new voters?

Surely they're not sitting back, waiting for someone else to do it.



Sid

[alcibiades_mystery]

14. The Establishment has to do that part of the Political Revolution!

[jeff47]

15. No, it's usually the state and local parties. Not the candidates.

Candidates will collect registrations during their GOTV operations, but the people operating "registration drives" are usually state and local parties.

[Dr Hobbitstein]

6. Once again proving that the 18-24 block are the laziest voters.

Feel the Bernout.

[SidDithers]

7. But they sure do know how to vote in online clicky-click polls...nt

Sid

[Dr Hobbitstein]

10. That's because they don't have to leave their parent's basement.

Also, there's not an app for that.

[Arazi]

21. How do you know it hasn't? Maybe the totals would be even lower without him

[Blue_Adept]

8. So much concern about this these days

[img][/img]

[EdwardBernays]

9. Don't worry

President Trump will sort this out.

[questionseverything]

11. the dnc gave the gop a 2 month head start on air time by delaying the debates

trump picked up many low info voters that should be voting democratic

illinois has a repub gov and a repub senator now, it is entirely possible it could go red in the general,especially if hc is the nominee because of her undying support of rahm

hope am wrong

[Vote2016]

20. This was deliberately to favor one candidate at the party's expense

[Baitball Blogger]

12. If the Democratic candidate wins, it will probably come down to the Independant vote.

Are Indies more psyched about Bernie or Hillary?

[Attorney in Texas]

13. exactly

[andym]

16. 2008 was a special primary campaign for Democrats

Enthusiasm for Barack Obama was at amazing levels, and brought many people into the process. Hillary Clinton also generated more enthusiasm then now, perhaps because it was her first run for President. The Democratic field was larger with potentially strong candidates including Joe Biden and John Edwards. 2008 held the promise of a nominating a candidate who would make history not only because of their platform, but because of the chance to change American culture symbolically.

In 2016, Hillary had been dogged by GOP accusations painting her as a liar, and although Bernie Sanders has generated some enthusiasm, the levels are far less than for President Obama in 2008.

[Buzz Clik]

17. A low turnout should be favoring Sanders. It isn't.

[Attorney in Texas]

19. High turnout favors Sanders. Having the entire DNC chanting "NO YOU CAN'T" hurts turnout.

[Vote2016]

18. kicked and rec'd