What if

[courseofhistory]

there is a "hidden" element that doesn't reflect greatly or at all in the polls. A great number of elederly voters don't have cell phones and sometimes not even landline phones as well as the very poor. My experience with many elderly people is that they grow very impatient with campaign and unsolicited sales calls and just hang up on people.

I think Obama may hold a "hidden" edge in the battleground states. What do others think? Or is there a leveling effect for this in the polling data and methodolgy?

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. The hidden element is simple: Obama has sunk tens of millions into organization for two years

Ground game ground game ground game.

Remember, this was the "hidden" element for Bush in 2004 - after the fact everyone was amazed at the Bush ground operations. It is the hidden element here as well. Not only does the incumbent have a significant advantage in ground game, but the Obama people have spent more on this than anything else. Look at the disparity of local offices in Ohio. Romney's shifting personnel from PA to OH to deal with early vvoting? After early voting has started? What a joke. Obama's had people beating the pavements in Ohio for 16 months.

To the Obama people who are actually involved in the process of getting Obama elected (not you, poll junkies - y'all are just playing fantasy baseball - I'm referring to serious people who give a shit), do your work. Work your precinct, your blocks, your program. Keep it up. It will pay off, and the media will be speaking in stunned amazement about YOU 30 days from now, and the poll junkies with their little parlor games will be an amusing joke.

[MFM008]

2. there is a hidden element

ME. No one polls ME , all the other MEs out there.