2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumFriendly Reminder
I decided to look back at some 2008 polls and I found something interesting. There was a period around mid-september where McCain lead Obama after the convention, as you probably all remember. Here is the interesting bit
McCain was ahead of Obama for nearly 2 weeks. His poll average, according to RCP reached nearly a 3 point lead. It was a 7 point swing in McCain's favor over a few days. And yet Obama came back and crushed the old man and the retard.
Romney's bounce has allowed him to lead Obama so far for only 4 days and so far he has been ahead by only 1.5 point or less. Romney peaked at 1.5 two days ago and has fallen to a 1 point lead as of right now. Romney peaked at 48% of the vote and is now down to 47.3% today. Obama bottomed out at 46.1% and is now up to 46.3%.
The bounce that Romney got from the debate last week seems is smaller than what McCain got in 2008 (7% compared to about 3.5%), the peak so far seems to be much lower, and the peak seems to have come and gone much earlier. So Obama could come back from a 3 point deficit that lasted for weeks in 2008 but he can't come back from a 1 point deficit after 4 days? There is a bit less time to make up lost ground than in 2008 but there is also a lot less ground to make up. 1 month to go and we don't think Obama can't overcome a 1 point deficit in that time? And these are RCP numbers, so it is 1 point at worst.
Maybe the doom and gloom is misplaced? Do you not think that in the next month, Romney is going to say something incredibly stupid? That in the next month more past comments about fucking over the poor won't come out? Do you not think that in the next month, Obama's team of brilliant political strategist won't come up with a plan to make up a 1 point deficit? It is ridiculous to think that the next month is going to be pure inertia and an external force won't knock this election into a completely different direction.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)It was a tied race when Lehman went belly up. Obama was underperforming, all things considered, up until that point. McCain's messaging people were running circles around Obama's.
GallopingGhost
(2,404 posts)I was racking my brains today, trying to remember what the polls looked like in 2008 at this time, and the electoral map, also. I think neither looked good. Everyone expected McCain to win, I know.
I still think President Obama is in really good shape to win. The VP debate went extremely well, you can bet your buns he will be in top form for debates #2 and #3, and he's got money in the bank to slam the swing states with ads in the home stretch.
fishwax
(29,149 posts)refer to Sarah Palin as "the retard." Using the word that way is offensive to many on DU. Out of respect to their feelings (as well as to avoid having an otherwise worthwhile post potentially hidden), might I suggest you edit that out of your post?
As to the rest of it: an important reminder. I do remember McCain looking really solid at times. I never really believed the country could actually vote for him, though. I feel the same way this time around. Yep, doom and gloom definitely misplaced.
Of course it all still depends on getting turnout!
GallopingGhost
(2,404 posts)what it looked like on this date, 2008.
I thought I could do that through electoral-map.com but I can't find it.
fishwax
(29,149 posts)Here's the map from today's date in 2008 at electoral-vote.com: http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Oct12.html
In September it was much tighter, and McCain was actually ahead in mid-September. By October, Obama was cruising at 300+ for almost the whole way.
You can find the "This date in 2008" link on the left-hand side of the main page at electoral-vote.com. (Once there, you can move backward and forward by changing the date in the url.)
GallopingGhost
(2,404 posts)It's closer than it should be, given what damned liars R/R are, but I still think we will carry Ohio and Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada, and New Hampshire.
I am waiting for Biden's debate performance to sink in with seniors in Florida.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)That isn't the point. The point is, when you are in the middle of it, the bounces seem hopeless. However, when you put things into context, our current situation isn't that bad. I remember in 2008, I had pretty much given up on the election for about 2 weeks there. It did seem hopeless. We were about 5 weeks from the election and McCain had a pretty solid lead. And Obama overcame it. The mechanism as to how doesn't matter. Yes he can't wait for Lehman's to collapse again but he can take advantage of an event. He can call out Romney when he says something incredibly stupid (and that will happen). The point is he did it before and he can do it again. He has climbed much steeper hills than this.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)I do wonder what they are up to...