Electoral Maps are still looking pretty good for Obama

[courseofhistory]

Here is one:

Obama 294 Romney 235

[img][/img]

[amborin]

1. looks good!

[thevoiceofreason]

2. Stay the course

Do the work. Call your friends.

[NJRick1006]

3. Worst case scenario 281 electoral votes

When I did my map, being very conservative, I get 281 for the President. I gave the entire South and plains states except Minnesota and Iowa to Romney. I have the president winning the Northeast, midwest (except Indiana), and west coast plus Hawaii, Nevada, and New Mexico. Mine looks pretty much like that in the first post, with the exception of giving Romney Virginia.

I had the President at 310 a few days ago. Hope it changes back!!

[ailsagirl]

4. I'm sorry, but it does not look very good to me

This is the highest score Nitt has ever had (in my memory). I can see that Obama has > 270 electoral votes, but Nitt needs only a measly 35 before he hits the jackpot, which I find unnerving. Am I alone in feeling this way? Or am I expecting too much?

[GallopingGhost]

8. Feel free to call BS on my answer, as I am

neither good at math nor a poll junkie, but the only states I can see Romney flipping on the above map are Virginia~ MAYBE~ and possibly Colorado. But I don't think he will carry either.

Don't forget we are still seeing the backlash from Romney's disgusting lie-fest, and have yet to see the bounce from Biden's debate performance.

[DemKittyNC]

5. N.C. has got to go for Obama

I only see more and more Obama signs around here. I haven't seen one single Rmoney sign. I did see a Rmoney bumper sticker stuck on the back of this huge hum V today, first one I have seen this year... The evil kitten inside of me wanted to take my car keys and scratch Obama 2012 in the side of his hum V but kitten doesn't enjoy jail very much.

[thevoiceofreason]

6. That is why Mrs. Voice and I are callling into NC tomorrow

[Baitball Blogger]

7. Is Florida pink just because of the MD Poll?

[GallopingGhost]

9. I saw three Obama/Biden yard signs

and two Obama bumper stickers today, and I live in a rural Republican area.

[torotoro]

10. Playing around at www.270towin.com and Obama NEEDS OH and WI

With those if he just grabs NH then Rom and Obama tie 269.
So Obama can lose NH (which is likely to happen) but he he will need something like IA or NV and he wins this thing. I dont think he will win NV since Sheldon is obsessed in taking down Obama in Nevada. VA also looks gone. Iowa looks like the only path.

[ShadowLiberal]

11. It's a lot worse then it's been all year, but 2 years ago I'd have thought this map looks good

Other then some states with outlier polls making them whiter then they should be (like Michigan, and Nevada which democrats have consistently been over performing by 5+ points in federal races for the last 4 years) this is what I would have considered a best case situation two years ago.

North Carolina's been close for much of the year, but I've always thought it seemed very unlikely we'd win it again unless it's a blowout.

We were never going to win Missouri this year since we didn't last time.

Florida & Ohio I think have been slowly slipping away from us the last 10 years, given Obama's narrow margin in both (and how Ohio turn out was less in 2008 then 2004, which is what won us the state). Still, I feel much more optimistic about Ohio now then Florida, polls have consistently been better for us there then Florida, in good and bad times of polling this year, probably from the auto bailout.

Iowa may slip out of our fingers, compared to other Obama states his numbers have been consistently weaker there when you compare how much better/worse Obama is performing in other states he won in 2008.

Despite Ryan being on the ticket I don't think we're in any serious danger of losing the state, unless it becomes a complete blowout in Romney's favor.

And Obama's consistently had a strong lead in New Hampshire, other then a few outlier polls showing it closer but with Obama still leading, and Obama has been in great shape in Virginia to.

Colorado I don't know about, it ought to be trending more and more democratic as time goes on, but there could still be enough republican stronghold groups of voters for a good turnout to win the state.

I think worse case right now we could win 270 to 268 (losing Colorado, Iowa, and Ohio on that map), but it seems more likely to me that we either get 279 (with Colorado) or 297 (with Ohio to).

Despite what all the polls may show in Nevada, I don't think we're in any serious danger of losing it unless Romney wins the national vote by over 5 points.

[ailsagirl]

12. You've done some good analyses, ShadowLiberal.

I'm completely confused over the fact that, say, two weeks ago, Obama's numbers were soaring. Now, because of his debate performance (which pundits have told us isn't all that important in the final analysis), he has plummeted? Shouldn't he be judged on his outstanding record (nearly four years = > 1300 days) and not that first debate (90 minutes)? Were his high numbers over the summer a mirage? Something isn't adding up right and, frankly, I smell a rat.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

13. His approval numbers are 50+% too

Unemployment ticked down last week, consumer confidence is up=Romney surge???? The only major "disaster" was the debate but would that REALLY cancel President Obama's gains???? Really????

[ailsagirl]

14. Exactly what is going on? Are we being hoodwinked?

Maybe I'm being paranoid?

[Proud Liberal Dem]

17. No, I don't think so

It's hard to believe that a debate like the one President Obama had with Romney could damage him as badly as the polls/media are making it out to be but I suspect that most of the "damage" was not the actual debate (Obama certainly wasn't at his best but he didn't commit some huge unforced gaffes) was the media pumping of a Romney victory coupled with a left-wing meltdown/freakout and a slew of mysterious and little-heard-from pollsters entering the fray with pro-Romney numbers to help create a narrative of an Obama campaign in meltdown and a hard-tightening race. I have TPM's PollTracker App on my phone and I see the polls as they come in and I've been frequently flummoxed at all of these different pollsters that I've never heard of before continuously showing up on my screen.

[ailsagirl]

18. Thanks, PLD, for your perspective. Perhaps it's time for me to step back a few steps for a breather!

Might do me some good!

[politicman]

15. current state of race

If Obama can hold the states he leads in at the moment, then he should win.

1) New Hamsphire looks to be in Obama's column BECAUSE they only poll out recently that shows Romney leading comes from ARG, YET this same polling firm has Obama losing by less in Florida than they do in New Hamshipre.
Does anyone in their right mind think that Romney will win New Hamspire by more than he wins in Florida?

2) Iowa is looking tighter even though there hasn't been that much polling since the debates.
The fact that Obama is leading in early voting by a good margin can only help his chances of holding that state.

3) Michigan - does anyone really believe that Obama will lose this state?
Only way he can lose this state is if he gets totally blown away in the popular vote.

4)Ohio - this is going to be a close one.
Looks like Obama currently has a slight lead BUT we will find out more once PPP comes out with their latest poll.


What we need right now is some swing state polls from reliable firms, because most of the polling at the moment is either being released from pollsters who are affiliated to a particular party OR firms such as PEW that released a poll that a little skewed because they undersampled hispanics greatly.

Looks like Nate is using his method that says that if Romney is leading or tied in popular vote then that means the swing states automatically are tied or leaning Romney BUT this could misleading, we just need proper polls conductedc by reputable firms to find out.

[yellowcanine]

16. Hispanic vote may skew some likely voter models though which will benefit Obama.

On this map I think Florida, NC, Colorado and Arizona are going to be better for Obama than what the current polls are saying because of the Hispanic vote. Not a magic bullet but maybe enough to tip the balance in several states, with the outside chance of giving Obama a clean sweep of these four states.