2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNYT's 538 Forecast...
...has Obama's chances of winning have slipped all the way down to just 61%. It was around 80% before the debate debacle last week, but he has been in a bad fall ever since he allowed Romney to dominate that debate nine days ago. Florida, Virginia, and Colorado are now in Romney's column.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
This is really getting scary, folks. Ohio is probably going to decide the election. As I've said before, Obama MUST sweep PA, OH, MI, and WI and then pick up either IA, NV, or CO to get over 270 electoral votes. I'm not worried about the margin of victory. All I can about is GETTING the victory on Nov. 6.
abumbyanyothername
(2,711 posts)O can take PA, OH, MI, WI and NH . . . plus Omaha in NE for exactly 270.
Baitball Blogger
(46,709 posts)MFM008
(19,808 posts)some re- hash with my eggs and toast. Training thoughts on Ohio and Iowa.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)Obama has been ahead in every poll taken in Iowa.
Early voting began in Iowa a couple of weeks ago, and Democratic ballots outnumbered Republican ballots by a 5:1 margin. Turnout has been heavy.
We don't have any ludicrous voter ID laws, as they were all rejected. Our stupid Sec of State, in a hasty plot to appease the criminal Romney Republicans--passed "emergency voter ID laws" all by himself. Wasn't that nice? Well, a judge rejected those laws and they are no longer on the books.
Iowan's have a special place in their hearts for Obama--as we delivered his win in the Iowa caucuses. We're pretty proud of that and we remain loyal.
The ground game here is amazing too.
Obama will take Iowa.
abumbyanyothername
(2,711 posts)Mom and Dad have already voted Obama from Council Bluffs. Let's hope that son and daughter in law forget to vote. Or even better, grandson arrives on election day and they can't vote!
smackd
(216 posts)Baitball Blogger
(46,709 posts)And he lives in Florida. I say we got for the Trifecta!
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)BlueDemKev
(3,003 posts)...I needed that. : )
nycbiscuit
(46 posts)Romney could take FL, NC, VA, and OH and Obama would still win with WI, NH, CO, NV, IA
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map#CO-D,FL-R,IA-D,NV-D,NH-D,OH-R,PA-D,VA-R,WI-D
Baitball Blogger
(46,709 posts)Is that even in the game?
TroyD
(4,551 posts)And he won it by a large margin in 2008.
It also has a Democratic Governor and Two Democratic Senators.
If it is now leaning Romney, that is because of the debate.
BlueDemKev
(3,003 posts)Michigan would have to fit into that equation if we're shut out in the big trifecta...that being OH, VA, and FL.
amborin
(16,631 posts)Forecast. This is Romney's best day ever and he is only at 38.9%.
Obama remains way ahead!
be positive!
Baitball Blogger
(46,709 posts)amborin
(16,631 posts)My point is that Nate's Nov 6 forecast still has Obama's chances WAY ahead of Romney's. Obama is winning, and will win! Stay positive and work hard!
Baitball Blogger
(46,709 posts)So much gloom and doom for Friday dump day. I am more now inclined that the right is trying to influence the poll numbers intentionally to demoralize us. We need to get ARG, Gravis and the other idiot pollster out of the formula. That should be our mission.
amborin
(16,631 posts)And besides slanted pollsters, they've got keyboard warriors trying to demoralize. They know it saps enthusiasm. Dems are WAY ahead in totals of registered voters in all swing states except Colorado. But we need registered to become likely. When people get demoralized, they tend to stay home.
boxman15
(1,033 posts)Yes, things aren't looking nearly as good as they were two weeks ago when we were looking at 2008 Pt. 2.
Instead, the race has reverted to what we thought it would look like at the beginning of the year: A close election, but one in which Obama has a distinct advantage in the Electoral College.
You said it. Ohio is the key. If Obama can win that (and he's off to a good start with early voting), there is very little chance Romney can win. Plus, Obama has multiple paths to victory with or without the Buckeye state. Romney, meanwhile, has to win just about every one of the "Big 4" swing states (FL, OH, VA, NC) and still take a couple of the smaller ones.
In the end, I think Obama wins with 290-248 electoral votes (taking OH, IA, WI, CO, NV and losing VA, NC, FL, with the popular vote being extremely narrow). Obama has more margin for error, and that comforts me.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)290-298?
BlueDemKev
(3,003 posts)...with Florida and Virginia slipping away, Ohio is ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL. We CANNOT lose there. If we lose OH, VA, NC, and FL, our only prayer is to win ALL of these: MI, WI, IA, CO, NV, and NH--a VERY tall order indeed.
Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin...the three-part combination to the White House for President Obama.
yellowcanine
(35,699 posts)Colorado and New Mexico on the strength of his advantage with Hispanic voters. Obama'a advantage with Hispanics is unprecedented so it is likely there will be at least one surprise because of it and I think North Carolina may be it with Arizona also clearly in play on election night. And Florida could be decided in Obama's favor on the strength of Hispanic votes. The Cuban influence there has been significantly blunted by non Cuban Hispanics. Obviously the margins are tight so nothing is a sure bet but the fundamentals, including a slowly improving economy, do favor Obama.
AverageJoe90
(10,745 posts)See my topic on what may be some serious issues with Nate Silver's most recent modeling here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1529116
Firebirds01
(576 posts)We may still be in the lead, but if it is close it presents a problem. Republican voter suppression in swing states is going to skim a few percentages away from the Dems (or in the case of electronic voting machines, just invent votes for the Repubs).
If the election is considered close people will think Romneys win is legitimate and that people talking about fraud are conspiracy theorists.
If it's close it WILL get stolen.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Why is it so easy to commit electoral theft in the United States of America?
This is not the case in other Western countries.
Firebirds01
(576 posts)and the states often leave it up to the counties. So you have thousands of different elections. I think race has a lot to do with it. People dont want african americans to vote so they commit fraud. The people who wrote the laws and were supposed to watch fo fraud didnt like african americans so they allowed loopholes for fraud to be written into the law.
immoderate
(20,885 posts)--imm
Brewinblue
(392 posts)and it is our largest state!!!!1111
BlueDemKev
(3,003 posts)Alaska is one of the least-populated states in the country (and virtually all of its population is dotted along the southern part of the state). It has less electoral votes than Rhode Island.
ModLibCentrist
(28 posts)Intrade saw Obama's per state numbers PLUNGE yesterday. Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, CO, and VA all dipped big time yesterday.
Tigress DEM
(7,887 posts)OhZone
(3,212 posts)suspicious polls and switches to "likely" voters?
Left Brain
(955 posts)Hah, that's hilarious.
Sixty-one percent is nearly TWO-THIRDS!
Glass is nearly two-thirds full, and our team is all the way down...
Thanks for your concern. Now lets work together to get out the vote!
MSMITH33156
(879 posts)today.
But everyone needs to calm down. No, no one wants a 60-40 election, and we feel a lot worse than 2 weeks ago, but Obama is still favored. Would you rather be on the other side? Needing a perfect debate to get into a situation where you have a 40% chance of winning? Of course not. If we keep fighting to election day, get out there and vote, get our people to the polls, Obama will do well enough in the last 2 debates to win this thing. The last debate is on foreign policy too, where Obama gets to talk about shooting Bin Laden in the face and how Romney said he wouldn't go in there. We are still in a strong position. Just cut out the defeatism and be persistent.
BlueDemKev
(3,003 posts)I'm with you. My sleeves are rolled up and I am ready to work for the Obama-Biden ticket the rest of the way...for the sake of my future and my children's future.
Let's do this together.