Forget the National Polls, It's All about Nine States

[courseofhistory]

[URL="http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Oct11.html#item-3"]Forget the National Polls, It's All about Nine States [/URL]

Despite Mitt Romney's post-debate bump, the fundamentals of the presidential race have not changed. Everything comes down to six big swing states (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Colorado) as well as three smaller ones (Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire). The result is a race in which both campaigns are ignoring 41 states. Romney's path to the White House is still very limited. He has to win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and probably Virginia to get to 270. If Obama hangs onto Wisconsin--a traditionally blue state--and wins the two western swing states, both of which are historically trending blue, he needs only one of the four biggest swing states. Currently, he still has a substantial lead in Ohio, without which no Republican has ever been elected President

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http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Oct11.html#item-3

[Savannahmann]

1. Real Clear Politics has the map and the numbers.

The site also has the state polls linked, giving an average of the last five or so. By that map, the President has 201 Electoral votes on lock down, while Robme has 181.

President Obama has the advantage, even with the Rethug Polling Bias, but we're not out of the woods yet. We still have a hard fight ahead of us.

[Maximumnegro]

2. All about Ohio

Everything else is secondary.

[ModLibCentrist]

3. All We Need...

All we need is Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa/Nevada (one of them).

Thats it.

Holding on to Ohio just makes the rest of it so easy.

[helpisontheway]

4. How have the fundamentals not changed?

Before Romney never had a lead in any of them (the entire time). Now he is beginning to lead in some of them. He is even starting to get closer in ones that we thought for sure would go to Obama. So how is it that the fundamentals have not changed? We need another big Romney gaffe of secret tapes to come out. However, if the public has made up their mind then even that will not work. When the public made the decision to go with Obama even never ending loops of Reverend Wright did not change that.

[Savannahmann]

5. We need a campaign that highlights our beliefs.

We need issue oriented ads, and campaign stops. We need to highlight our victories, the ACA, Stimulus, and getting the fuck out of Iraq. We get big bird ads, and discussions on the news. That won't change a single fucking mind. It was stupid when it started, and it's incredibly stupid to continue it. We need a commercial like we used to do back in the day. We need to highlight a normal family like most voters have. Two commercials, a single parent, and how the President's policies will affect them on this issue, and the family of four and the same things. We aren't doing that. We are doing ads highlight the blindingly obvious. Robme is a crook. No shit. It being painfully obvious that the rich steal and cheat, we expected that to win for us?

We don't need a gaffe, or a secret tape. We need a campaign of issues to win. Why we aren't doing that is beyond me, but if we lose, it's because we forgot how to win.

[ModLibCentrist]

6. Agreed That Fundamentals Have Changed

the Rev. Wright example is a great one.

the last 2 weeks we seem to keep moving the goal posts to achieve a win.

first it was "all we need is states x, y, and z" and we win.

then after the debate it was "well maybe not state x, so what now need is y, z, a, and b".

now we are at: "not looking good in states y and z either, so what we really need to do is win states, a, b, c, d, e, and f. "

a month ago it was Romney who was needing states a, b, c, d, e, and f.

While I think we still have a better than even chance of winning (just barely), the "Bleeding" appears to be continuing. Lets hope new post Biden performance polls give us some momentum.

[janx]

7. Great site!

Love the graphs.