2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe Elected Delegate Count March 2, 2016 Clinton 595 Sanders 405 Nomination Remains Wide Open
This does not include 479 "super delegates" who can "jump shit" and vote for Sanders or Clinton at the convention.
If Clinton is indicted by the Department of Justice regarding her e-mails before the convention it's likely that most of her "super delegates" will abandon her and vote for Bernie Sanders.
Here's the state by state elected (earned) delegate count so far:
CLINTON SANDERS
IOWA 23 21
NEW HAMPSHIRE 9 15
NEVADA 19 15
SOUTH CAROLINA 39 14
VIRGINIA 61 32
GEORGIA 72 28
OKLAHOMA 16 21
VERMONT 0 16
MASSACHUSETTS 46 45
COLORADO 28 38
ARKANSAS 22 10
MINNESOTA 29 46
TEXAS 144 73
ALABAMA 44 9
TENNESSEE 42 22
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/2016-primaries-democrats
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)No one owns the super delegates, they are free to vote for Bernie.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)And I believe many will change their votes to Bernie if he does well in the major delegate states such as California, New York, Pennsylvania.
Clinton carried the confederate south among Democrats but those states are safe Republican strongholds in the general election.
vdogg
(1,384 posts)BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)revbones
(3,660 posts)Bjorn Against
(12,041 posts)I expect Bernie will do very well on the west coast and not a single west coast ballot has been cast yet. Hillary's strongest support is in the south and once thise states have voted the rest of the primary calender is more favorable to Bernie, he can still win this.
calguy
(5,311 posts)She won't be indicted, the supers ain't gonna change, and by convention time Hillary will have many more than enough delegates withOUT the supers.
Bernie is running a fine campaign but his path to victory is getting narrower with primary result.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)If she is indicted before the convention what impact do you think that would have on her presidential ambitions and campaign, if any?
BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)Keep hoping if that's what you gotta do. But it's a total waste of time.
Octafish
(55,745 posts)KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)It's wide open in the formal sense, but the math is really hard for Sanders from this point on. He'd have to win everything left by 60-70% in order to secure enough pledged delegates to catch up.
Chichiri
(4,667 posts)Second column from the right.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Well, I won't engage in wild unscientific speculation.
We don't know what Bernie "needs" in 35 states.
Chichiri
(4,667 posts)BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)Logic and facts just don't work with True Believers.
tgards79
(1,415 posts)imagine2015
(2,054 posts)LOL
So you figured out exactly how any delegates Bernie needs to win in each of 35 different states!
I believe you are the only person in the entire country who has been able to achieve that incredible feat!
Since you know exactly what percentage of the vote Bernie will get in 35 states we should just accept your figures and not bother with actual voting!
Chichiri
(4,667 posts)nc4bo
(17,651 posts)Working like busy little beavers to depress Sanders' enthusiasm.
We've got a race!
Run Bernie Run!