2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe racial divide is real and a problem for Sanders. But outside of the South, it is also an issue
for Clinton.
(snip)
But heres the critical thing: The elections in Nevada, Iowa and Massachusetts were either close or extraordinarily close. A little bit more time here, a little bit more organizing there, and they could easily have tipped his way. In other words, Sanders could very easily have seven states now to Clintons eight.
He doesnt, and coulda shoulda woulda is just that. But what this does mean, going forward, is that we have the opportunity to turn potential into actual. Weve got time, weve got organizing, weve got money: lets make use of it all. Clintons strongest weapon is the aura of inevitability that she and her supporters and the media have concocted around her. Part of that is based on reality, part of it is based on super delegates (which I refuse to concede), and part of it is based on spin. Dont accommodate the superdelegates, dont accommodate the spin.
II. The exit polls in Massachusetts, which Clinton won narrowly, are fascinating. Here are some highlights:
1. Sanders got 41 percent of non-white voters (they dont break down the category further). I want to come back to this.
2. Sanders beat Clinton among voters making under $50k, and voters making between $50k and $100k. The only income group she won was voters making over $100k.
3. Among first-time voters, Sanders got a whopping 71 percent of the vote.
4. Among independents, Sanders got 65 percent of the votes.
5. Sanders won among very liberal voters and moderate voters.
6. Clinton did better among married women than she did among unmarried women.
(snip)
Think about it. With the exception of Nevada, the states where theres been dramatic support for Clinton among non-white voters have all been in the South. And in Nevada, Latino voters almost went for Sanders (the experts are still debating that one). But outside the South and Nevada, there have been primaries in three states that are virtually all white (Vermont, New Hampshire and Iowa), and three other states that while majority white, have more diverse populations (Colorado, Minnesota and Massachusetts). Still no exit polls from Colorado and Minnesota (at least not on CNNs website), but in Massachusetts, Sanders got 41 percent of the non-white vote. Compared with all those states in the South, thats stunning. So the racial divide is real and a problem for Sandersdont get me wrongbut it may be more complicated than people have claimed.
(snip)
http://www.salon.com/2016/03/03/inside_the_democrats_racial_divide_bernie_sanders_hillary_clinton_and_the_polls_that_prove_this_isnt_over_yet/
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)85% white is somehow a problem for Hillary?
Jeez, Salon has become a 24/7 infomercial for Bernie Sanders. Ridiculous.
Uncle Joe
(58,364 posts)in the border states of Tennessee and Virginia than South Carolina and Alabama.
As white peoples' ideology is affected by region and culture; conservative to liberal, I have no doubt the same holds true to some degree of African Americans.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Just guessing? Well I'm very far north, and most blacks I know are planning on voting like our southern relatives who some seem to think are so very different than us.
Uncle Joe
(58,364 posts)to reinforce my hypothesis.
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)Facts that are terrifying to Hillary and her supporters. She is losing much of the Women's vote also and the Latino Vote. Bernie has been endorsed by Native Americans and is the ONLY candidate who even mentions them.
He is a UNITER She and her supporters continue to be the dividers they were in 2008.
amborin
(16,631 posts)sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)primaries.
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)et al.
Think about it. No one, Black, White or Latino knew who Bernie was back in May, his name recognition was about 3%.
His campaign had little money so they had to use it carefully. They were brilliant as the results show. They focused on the Early Primary states, because they knew that to be taken seriously they had to, first make it to Iowa, still under dispute so I count that as a win for Bernie, AND put up a good showing.
Not only did their hard work produce far more than expected, Bernie literally wiped Hillary off the map in NH.
To be honest, I was stunned at their success and awed by the planning that went into it.
We saw what happened. His numbers steadily went up from up from 3% to 8, 10, 16, 20, 30 and he's still on an upward trend.
Meantime, I have read that Moody, Hllary's campaign manager had warned her about Bernie, told her not to dismiss him. Asked her if she had experienced what an INCREDIBLE CAMPAIGNER he was.
Clearly they were worried, SHE was supposed to be inevitable, and they weren't taking any chances.
No doubt returning to their old smear mongering friends who helped them play the RACE CARD and the GENDER CARE in 2008, they saw Bernie's excellent Civil Rights Record.
In true Rovian style, before he could introduce himself to AAs they decided to LIE about it, dismiss and attack what they KNEW would be a strength.
I watched it, saw it before in 2008 and knew what they were up to.
Shameful, vile and not the way our political system SHOULD work, but sadly there is MONEY in smear campaigns and people with zero ethics willing to take it.
Bernie had no problems at all with minorities, this was an Atwater/Rove/Brock concoction.
But it backfired on them and the first signs of that were when AAs began to hear about him. Wondered what the controversy was.
And some began to switch from Hillary to Bernie. Some also, to her detriment as her Civil Rights activities were not what she wanted out there,began to ask 'what was SHE doing back then'.
Prominent AAs were angry when they found out her history and deeply impressed with his.
But could he introduce himself fast enough to all demographics given his lack of name recognition?
Obviously not, especially with the CORP MEDIA helping Hillary, and now we know why, to keep people from learning about him.
But amazingly his numbers among AAs began to go up, from 2% to over 30% a month ago and as more prominent AAs began to join his campaign they went up even more.
That 41% in Mass must be scaring the hell out of Hillary's campaign.
That is why we are seeing them TRY SO HARD to PLAY RACE CARD again.
I show some of that stuff to AAs we've known for years and they are horrified by it, and as more people learn about it, and I will use it to show them what good candidates, like Obama and Bernie have to deal with every time she runs for office, the more they distance themselves from her campaign.
41% and we are seeing his numbers in the Latino community going way up all over the country now.
He finally is getting SOME media coverage because they can't avoid it, the debates raised his name recognition why DWS didn't want them/
I watch the Hillary operatives to see how frightened her campaign is. It is a good way to see how WELL Bernie is doing.
And what I saw over the past week was a desperate attempt to PLAY THE RACE CARD again, and I felt great.
It meant her internal polls are showing her she is losing the minority vote.
She has practically zero support from young feminists due to the bullying of Hillary's brand of feminist, which many of us women have experienced first hand.
Good article, Uncle Joe, just wanted to point out that the ONLY problem Bernie ever had with ANYONE, was name recognition, and the vile tactics Hillary's campaign is STILL Trying to use to pevent voters from their RIGHT TO GET TO KNOW candidates.
Shameful behavior on her part, she needs to reign them in as all they are doing is ensuring she will get no support from those AAs who have seen how little she cares about them ONCE THEY Make their own choice of candidate, or from most of Bernie's supporters should she ever need it.
Juicy_Bellows
(2,427 posts)Uncle Joe
(58,364 posts)ccinamon
(1,696 posts)Thank you for taking the time to write all that out..... good job!
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)SHE is divisive, Bernie is a Uniter and he is gaining support rapidly among AAs which is why we are seeing the old divisive tactics, the CYNICAL use of race, being dragged up again.
Here is Keith Olberman's Special Comment on her campaigns ''wretched' us of race in 2008, documenting the vile tactic with what turned out to be a prescient warning at the end. She lost and WE remember.