Clinton's General Strategy is Disaster Waiting to Happen

[kcjohn1]

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/03/03/us/politics/hillary-clinton-voter-turnout.html

Reading this NYT has only reinforced what I have being thinking all along. Trying to win with the Obama coalition for 3rd time is horrible strategy. Hell it would be difficult for Obama, with Clinton who is less charismatic it will be nearly impossible.

Obama won '12 with significant margins with POC, young voters, unmarried woman but lost by big margins with whites and older voters. In '12 1.5M less AA voted for him
than in '08 and he was only saved because Romney got 7M less votes than McCain (Obama lost whites by double the margin in '12).

I don't think Clinton can replicate Obama turnout among his coalition. She will probably get Kerry level turnout. The problem is that since that point Dems have lost whites even more. After 8 years of Obama, and a "real" GOP candidate (Trump, Cruz, Rubio all crazy right wingers) no amount of negative campaigning will keep the 7M McCain voters from showing up to the polls.

[Hoyt]

1. Opinion piece sounds like Sanders ain't generating as much excitement as supporters claim.

[The Traveler]

5. The view seems to be

That the fix is in. Sanders (near smothered in the media) still isn't well known and the presumption is he can't overcome the machine. So why bother?

But look at those crowds. Know what you are seeing? Emerging activists. They are learning fast. And Clinton and her camp have have really pissed them off.

And that is the ticking time bomb in the lap of the DNC. They are losing the younger generation. I expect Clinton to win the nomination. I expect a low turnout for us. I predict that the 7 million who voted for McCain in 08, and who stayed home in '12, will show up (subject to the attrition of the actuarial tables). And I think we lose.

And I think those young activists will find or make a new home.

Trav

[Hoyt]

10. Apparently young activists haven't been showing up. Trump generates big crowds too, so did

McGovern.

[The Traveler]

21. I think a lot of them have been

What HASN'T happened is that the activists haven't been able to draw in their less engaged peers. And partly that is because of the widespread perception that the system, the establishment, has rigged the game. The DNC and DWS has done a LOT to reinforce that cynicism. The latest episode ... "Bill with a bullhorn" ... just builds additional confirmation to that perception. So why should they bother? It can be hard to argue successfully against that kind of cynicism.

I spend a lot of time working with the under thirty crowd. Just the nature of my job. And I know my impressions are based on anecdote, and not statistical data ... but I don't need barometers to tell when a big mofo of a storm is blowing in.

Ms Clinton will probably win the nomination. She might win the general election. But there has been damage done to this party by the methods by which these deeds are being accomplished.

Trav

[JaneyVee]

2. Yet all attempts at expanding the base gets met with a purity test and backlash.

[Betty Karlson]

3. Maybe she is just a flawed candidate?

[JaneyVee]

4. She's the only candidate whose voters look like America's diverse demographics.

And she has more total votes than any candidate running.

[Betty Karlson]

7. When diverse demographics don't include millennials: count me out.

[JaneyVee]

9. She's winning millennials...just not white ones.

[Hoyt]

11. Exactly.

[Betty Karlson]

14. Yeah, I don't believe you.

And as for the "just not white ones" - that is a racist smear against Sanders' supporters. It has been debunked time and again; it would behoove you to stop repeating that meme.

[JaneyVee]

15. Right here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511247370

[Betty Karlson]

17. "Original title: National poll: Sanders closing the gap with Clinton"

That was the first reply in the thread you quoted. Happy cherrypicking!

[JaneyVee]

19. If you really care, check the demo breakdowns in Georgia and

Other states.

[Il_Coniglietto]

16. Yep!

She's got me I have voted in every election (at every level) since my 18th birthday and I'm proud that my first two votes for president went to Barack Obama. I'll be just as proud to vote for Hillary Clinton with #3!

[JaneyVee]

20. Awesome!

[YCHDT]

6. Hopefully, I'm not voting for a robot. She'll pull some conservative women I assume, enough

to make up the gap

[mhatrw]

8. I've become convinced that she is not even trying to win the general election.

That's what the FBI investigation is all about.

It's all about creating a a plausible narrative to elect an insane Repuke.

[Hoyt]

12. Now that's a interesting conspiracy theory.

[onenote]

13. 1988

At first blush, the primaries there look like a mirror image of 2016:

The Democrats had far greater turnout in the primaries (over 22 million with a multi candidate race featuring Dukakis, Jackson, Gore, Gephardt, and Simon. The repub race was basically a two-person race, with much less voter participation: Basically a two-person race between Dole and Bush (with only around 12 million voters participating).

So how did that greater participation in a multi-person content on the Democratic side compared to low enthusiasm in the two person Dole/Bush race translate in the end? A crushing defeat for the Democrats whose high turnout in the primaries turned into disastrously low turnout in the General, while the repub turnout, while down from 1984, was the second highest in repub history.

Two takeaways: First, anyone who thinks that primary results (including turnout) translates into some inevitable result in the general is just making things up to fit a storyline they want to sell.
Second, 2016 resembles the 1988 election in another way: the repubs multi-candidate race is likely to result in lower, not higher turnout in the General, as the supporters of the defeated nominees sit on their hands rather than vote for their party's nominee.

[ucrdem]

18. More disasters like Saturday and Tuesday please

[kenfrequed]

22. This is sort of problematic

But it wasn't a problem in Minnesota. There actually may have been increased turn out this election cycle as almost every place ran out of ballots.

We rejected Trump to third place and we gave Bernie a 60-40 lead over Hillary.

I am so damned proud of my state.