Jim Acosta just tweeted: Obama leads 44-42% in Arizona!

[UrbScotty]

https://twitter.com/jimacostacnn/status/257178591803088896

A big deal, if true!

[OhZone]

1. A Big EFFEN Deal!

OHYEAH!

[fugop]

2. In LIKELY voters???

HAHAHAHAHA!

Who knows, but anything like this is awesome for our spirits right now!

[WI_DEM]

3. Very good!! it would certainly change a bit of the media narrative...

I thought at first this would be some democratic poll but I see it's the Rocky Mountain News, so that is double wow.

[TroyD]

4. Rocky Mtn poll

Anyone familiar with this pollster?

[Dawson Leery]

5. Can we see the internals in this poll?

[zach1845]

6. I

Cant find any information on the web about this at all. does anyone have a link?

[TroyD]

7. Here's what the Tweet says:

Rocky Mtn poll of likely voters in AZ:

Obama 44%

Romney 42%

Johnson 3%

Stein 1%

-----

I know Obama is going to do better with Latinos this year in Arizona than in 2008, but this poll seems at odds with other polling.

I'd be interested to know if they also did a poll for the Arizona Senate race.

Bill Clinton was just in Arizona for Carmona on Wednesday night.

If Bill can have that much influence, that would be pretty amazing.

[ProSense]

8. Here's a good piece on Latinos and Arizona

Why Arizona may be the surprise of 2012 – the big Latino vote that you didn’t see coming
http://sync.democraticunderground.com/10021506630

[Cha]

40. Muchas Gracias, ProSense!

Last edited Sat Oct 13, 2012, 04:34 PM - Edit history (1)

"Why Arizona may be the surprise of 2012 – the big Latino vote that you didn’t see coming"

I wondered about this..all the crap the Brewer recons gave Latinos in AZ.

Edit: forgot "t" in this

[ProSense]

50. You're welcome. It's plausible. A September poll

showed Mitt leading by 3 points.

Arizona (Romney +3): For the first time, we have included Arizona as a stand-alone state, and find Mitt Romney leading 48% to 45%. Romney is also winning independents in the state (47% to 42%), while President Obama is performing very well among Hispanics (58% to 28%). This represents an improvement on his result among Hispanics in Arizona in 2008, where he defeated John McCain by 15 points among that k ey group.

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll-9.21.12.pdf

There must be a reason they pulled out Arizona for the first time.

[teabaggersarestupid]

56. And Purplestrategies

tends to lean conservative. Of course, this poll was taken prior to the debate but still. Prior to the debate, it's possible the race was tied in AZ.

[TroyD]

9. I FOUND IT

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/polls/5079b24debcabf376f000012

http://www.scribd.com/doc/109920743/RMP-2012-III-01

[Lone_Star_Dem]

17. Well, I'll be damned. It is true!

Thanks for digging that up!!

[TroyD]

20. You're welcome

And while we shouldn't assume this means Arizona is in play for Obama until we see more polls, it's still a positive sign.

I've been following Carmona's campaign for weeks, and this poll putting him ahead of Flake by 4 points could really help.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

26. I imagine we will be seeing more polling now.

Hopefully also done in English and Spanish.

[MizzM]

43. Arizona - The Purple State

I have been here since 2006 in this red state (from Boston) And, I am seeing for the first time, the Democratic party here calling it a Purple State. Wow. I have been to Democratic Headquarters, and it is awe inspiring to see the fervor and dedication of the volunteers - white, black, Latinos, Asian, and LGBT all working so hard to get the vote. You would think Carmona would be a shoe-in, but then again, we are in Arizona. This is very good news for Carmona and Obama.

[TroyD]

51. Do you know whether Bill will make a return appearance?

Obviously Bill has a lot of demands on his time and will need to be in OHIO a lot over the next 3 weeks to prevent Romney from making any more gains there, but since the first Carmona-Clinton rally was a success, I'm wondering if Bill will return once more to help Carmona close the deal.

[MizzM]

54. No planned visit that I am aware of

But you never know. I don't know his agenda, other than Ohio as you mentioned. This Senate seat is so important. The thought of a Democrat elected to the US Senate in Arizona makes my head spin!

[TroyD]

10. Some of it was conducted in the days following 'the debate'

Conducted by Rocky Mountain Poll from 10/04/2012 to 10/10/2012.

Wonder if it would be even higher if the the first few days were shaved off?

[kath]

29. Thanks for putting "the debate" in quotations - these things aren't anything resembling a real

debate, just glorified press conferences.

[zach1845]

11. last poll from arizona was

[TroyD]

12. CARMONA AHEAD 4 POINTS

In the U.S. Senate race.

[Bad Thoughts]

13. This is why the map looks better for Obama

he can put more places in play than Romney, force him to spend money to secure what should be his states.

[tarheelsunc]

14. What does this say?

It says take the negative campaigning and the Koch brothers et al out of the picture, and people would be realizing who the better candidate is nationwide. No thanks to the Supreme Court for the Citizens United ruling...

[Baitball Blogger]

15. Would Arizona add unexpected gains to the Electoral formula?

[zach1845]

16. this

could be true as there has been sparce data. PPD poll was done a week ago there. romney +9
Im sure this will at least bring more polling there.

[TroyD]

18. Most Democratic sources say Obama isn't contesting Arizona

He doesn't consider the state in play. We'll see what happens in the days to come.

BUT the Democrats ARE contesting the Senate race. That shows momentum for Carmona, and with this new poll he has now moved into a 1.2% average lead over Flake. Bill Clinton was in Arizona for Carmona earlier this week. Clinton is the only Democrat to win Arizona in modern history so he could continue to be an asset in the state.

The DSCC is spending $500,000 on ads for Carmona this month.

[bushisanidiot]

19. Underpolled Latinos are President Obama's biggest secret weapon

After that crazy az governor signed the anti-immigrant law, I knew
AZ would be in play.

the only reason AZ was as close as it was in 08 was because that
is McCain's home state. think about it.

[TroyD]

22. Yes, this is certainly possible according to Latino Decisions

The LD poll earlier this week showed that Obama's strength with Latinos in Arizona is stronger than in any other state in the country.

And Carmona's popularity with Latinos is also an asset.

[BellaKos]

71. Romney's failing is that he thinks people forget.

While in Arizona during the primary, he said that he thought that the Arizona immigration law should be a model for the nation. Latinos aren't gonna' forget that.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

25. This poll was conducted in both English and Spanish.

I'm thinking you may be onto something here. As far as I know it's the first poll there of RV's done in both languages.

Edit to add: In AZ.

[writes3000]

42. That is a HUGE piece of info!

I was just reading that on DailyKos. With Carmona being Hispanic, the Hispanic turn out should be big there.

[WI_DEM]

21. wow! Latino vote in AZ is breaking 77-10 Obama--we should definitely do some stuff there.

According to the pollster: "It must be concluded that Arizona is definitely a battleground state for both the Presidential and the U.S. Senate races and there can be little doubt but that the outcome will be largely dependent on whichpolitical party does the best job in turning out its voters and whether the Democrats can hang onto the Latino vote." Latinos are 77-10 Obama.

[Cha]

41. Latinos not feelin' that whole "self deportation" thing, huh

[treestar]

67. Somewhere there is an ad where President Obama speaks in Spanish

that one's got to roll! His accent is pretty good, too.

[zach1845]

23. yeah

I read the same thing they are not trying for it. Internal polls must show it to far off.
although those are just pundits. you never know.

[bushisanidiot]

24. AZ will have to be moved into the swing state column.

i expect pollsters to make that adjustment this weekend and later this week.

[jillan]

27. We (Az) have a HOT Senate race this year to replace that pos Kyl.

Carmona - Dem - Veteran, surgeon and former Surgeon General of the US and a Hispanic!!

Vs

Jeff Flake - Mormon Repub - one of the original teabaggers. Congressmen - mine! Who has done absolutely nothing but vote against everything that would help the citizens of this state.

It's neck and neck with Carmona just a couple of points ahead. Alot will depend on the top of the ticket.

[Cha]

44. It was posted upthread that Carmona was + 4 but it will

depend on GOTV. Who knows, maybe Carmona will help Up ticket?

[TroyD]

28. Here's this week's Latino Decisions article on ARIZONA

Why Arizona may be the surprise of 2012 – the big Latino vote that you didn’t see coming

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/10/10/why-arizona-may-be-the-surpise-of-2012-the-big-latino-vote-that-you-didnt-see-coming/

[TroyD]

30. Carmona overtakes Flake in the Average at TPM Poll Tracker

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/az-senator-12

[Maximumnegro]

31. Probably too good to be true BUT

if it helps to change the narrative, then let's push it.

[Arugula Latte]

32. And maybe force Romney to spend some $$ there...

[2theleft]

33. My sister lives in AZ

And, while she is a moderate/conservative (old school repub), her husband is an independent - some way left views, some eh...BUT, he has been on an anti-Romney post-fest on his twitter, facebook, and his blog. Causing quite a stir in his very conservative neighborhood. Calling him later to see what the mood on the ground is.

[Cha]

45. Sounds delicious..

"..he has been on an anti-Romney post-fest on his twitter, facebook, and his blog."

[TroyD]

34. Bill Clinton was in Arizona with Carmona on Wednesday night

Bill won AZ in 1996.

If the state really does tighten, then I assume he will make another visit.

But the best shot is probably still the Senate seat.

[bluestateguy]

35. Is there anything in this poll that would pee in the Wheaties?

As in, was any of it done before the 1st debate? An LV screen or RV screen?

[michael811]

36. I live in Mesa Az and I think were about one Presidential election away

from being a true swing state. 2016 Az is in play for sure 2012 might be a bit too early but Russel Pierce was recalled after he wrote 1070 and there are enough latinos in the state to give it to Obama if they turnout enough but it would have to be a pretty big turnout by them to make the difference

[Ishoutandscream2]

38. Yep, and I think two more here in Texas

By 2024, I think we're blue. I'll be 63, and I want to see this!

[Denise21]

37. i just looked at the electoral map

And that is the the case it is Obama 43/dumb head 50. Polls don't count electoral votes do

[Iliyah]

46. Ya'see the corporate media are accepting bullshit polls by the leaning right believing

them but this one is unbelievable - LOL

I will take it, why because Latinos are not usually factored into most polls.

[Esse Quam Videri]

47. Anyone else get emails from O's campaign about donating before midnight last night

because they had a big decision to make? Wonder if they are thinking about putting some more money into Az because of these latest numbers?

[morningfog]

48. I hope it at least changes the narrative.

[barbtries]

49. would that be beautiful

a blue arizona. yes.

[grantcart]

52. We call it the grantcart bounce, lol

just moved in and got my voter's registration card.

[GallopingGhost]

53. I had to read this thread title

twice to believe it. LOL

[tallahasseedem]

55. OMG!

That would be absolutely amazing!

[RBInMaine]

57. That's A LOT of undecideds though. Now Obama needs to spend bucks there to make MittTwit spend too.

[Lord_Maculus]

58. No one really expected Obama to win Indiana or North Carolina in 2008, either.

Just something to consider.

I personally think Obama should try and put it in play, maybe not go there himself but have Michelle or Biden hold a big, media covered rally out there w/Carmona. Clinton going out there will help, I think. I certainly think the demographics are more in our favor out there (especially with the backlash to "Papers, Please!&quot this year than they were in Indiana in 2008.

[TroyD]

60. 'Clinton going out there will help'

Bill Clinton was just there 3 nights ago at a big rally for Carmona.

I think I posted the video above.

Bill won AZ in 1996 (the first Dem to do it since Truman in 1948).

[TroyD]

59. Nate Silver's thoughts on the ARIZONA poll:

Although AZ poll very likely an outlier, one scary thing for Romney is that it included Spanish-language interviews. (1/3)

There's some evidence that polls which don't conduct Spanish-language interviews lowball Dem vote among Hispanics. (2/3)

Even if that's the case, though, it's CO/NV/FL that Romney needs to worry about more than AZ. (3/3)

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

[Warren DeMontague]

61. That cant be! I thought the ROMNEY TRAIN WUZ UNSTOPPABLE WARRRGGHHLLBBLLLLL

WARRRRRRGGKLHHHGGGHGGLLLL

[Pokoyo]

62. heres the link to cnn

Its real. good news!!!! http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/13/poll-presidential-race-close-in-arizona/

[Pokoyo]

63. Huffington Post and RCP havent posted this wtf

They are quick to post pro republican shit.

[TroyD]

64. TPM has posted it

But I don't expect RCP to.

Not sure what Huffington Post will do.

[GallopingGhost]

65. If the Latinos

turn out in full force to vote, AZ might very well turn blue.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Boy, won't that piss off Utah and the Southern AZ Mormon population.

[TroyD]

69. Latino Decisions article on ARIZONA

"Why Arizona may be the surprise of 2012 – the big Latino vote that you didn’t see coming"

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/10/10/why-arizona-may-be-the-surpise-of-2012-the-big-latino-vote-that-you-didnt-see-coming/

[courseofhistory]

66. Here is the link to the poll

Poll: Presidential race close in Arizona

Posted by
CNN's Gregory Wallace

(CNN) - A new poll of likely voters in Arizona shows the race for the White House is a close contest in the state.

President Barack Obama stands at 44% and GOP challenger Mitt Romney has 42% in the Rocky Mountain poll released Saturday. The margin is within the poll's sampling error.

– Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

– Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.

With 11 electoral votes, the state has been considered to be leaning in Romney's favor.

The state's two most populous counties, Maricopa and Pima, came out in support of Obama, while Romney has a lead in the rural counties. Men are evenly split between the two candidates, and the difference between the candidates among women is only three points.

Obama is the heavy favorite among the state's Latinos, who split for him 77% to Romney's 10%.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/13/poll-presidential-race-close-in-arizona/

[Historic NY]

68. Wow this is good news .

[TroyD]

70. RCP finally added the ARIZONA numbers for OBAMA & CARMONA

Good to see some more blue on the main page:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/