What's this about polls not being conducted in Spanish possibly underestimating Latino turnout?

[smorkingapple]

Anyone see this come up in the poll discussion about why Obama is leading Romney in AZ in that one poll?

I think AZ is a long term blue state but not this year but hey, we can hope right?

I never even thought about this but it makes complete sense and I wonder what it means for the heavily Latino states of CO, NV and FL. I know Gallup and some other polls do conduct interviews in Spanish, I just wonder how this might be underestimating how Latino turnout could affect the election if they're using older turnout models.

I found this nugget

In 2010, the average of 16 polls of likely voters in Nevada suggested Sharon Angle had a firm 3 point lead, and 538′s Nate Silver gave her an 83.4% chance of winning. On election night, the results showed Harry Reid with a 5 point win — an 8 point difference from the poll averages. Why the error? Almost every statewide poll in Nevada badly missed the Latino vote. In the final analysis, Reid won close to 90% of the Latino vote, and Latino turnout was much higher than anticipated.

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/10/10/why-arizona-may-be-the-surpise-of-2012-the-big-latino-vote-that-you-didnt-see-coming/

Lower turnout in a off cycle year could have caused this but I'm wondering if maybe we'll see something similar this year, at least enough to give Obama a firewall in the states he has major Latino support.

Any other thoughts?

[robinlynne]

1. sounds great to me. let them underestimate..... and let Obama win.

[yellerpup]

2. 14% seemed like a lot of undecideds....

this revelation, is a clue to why.

[Gman]

3. Could be. I know a couple of guys in the Texas Rio Grande Valley that

told me they may speak Spanish only for weeks at at time. When I call him, he has to stop and think about his English, he said. With language it is a use if or lose it thing. And there are many along the Mexican border just like this. In many places here in South Texas you could go a week without speaking English if it wasn't required somewhere. The store clerks speak Spanish, signs are in Spanish, people speak Spanish to each other. The waitress at the restaurant speaks Spanish. I'm sure it's like that from here all the way to California.

[LiberalFighter]

5. Are there local tv stations that are primarily in Spanish?

If so, have there been campaign ads in Spanish?

[Gman]

7. Absolutely there are. Univision is a big network nationally and internationally

I'm sure there are Spanish ads. I don't usually watch Spanish TV.

[LiberalFighter]

8. Univision is not a local station.

Are there local tv stations that are primarily in Spanish? Local tv stations that broadcast over the air. Not any of the network stations that are only available via cable or satellite.

[Gman]

9. The local stations are affiliated with the major networks just as English stations are affiliated

with CBS, NBC, etc. We don't have any independent Spanish stations in my area that I know of.

[LiberalFighter]

11. Ok, that is what I was seeking.

I'm sure soon that will change. Just as there are radio stations that are Spanish.

[FrenchieCat]

10. Pres. Obama speaking Spanish in a Campaign Ad!

[LiberalFighter]

12. Sorry Frenchie. That wasn't the info I needed.

I think there is a big difference between communicating with a specific audience when language is involved. A tv station that broadcasts all of their content in Spanish including the local news has a bigger impact than something like Univision which is a national network. I was looking to see if it was happening there. Got a closer response from the other person.

[treestar]

4. Would that be needed though?

Most Latinos who can vote would speak English, many native speakers of English who may not even know Spanish. Even immigrants, when here long enough to be citizens, could answer a poll in English.

[smorkingapple]

6. You haven't been to Miami I see LOL...

Many can survive using English(aka order food, directions, basics). They ain't trying to answer political questions in English though.

There's a significant portion of Latinos that fall into this category, which is why you saw Republicans fight for the "English is the official language of America, all forms need to be in English" shit a few years ago...

[writes3000]

13. I think the Obama campaign is well aware of these voters. Romney doesn't have access to them.

Romney's "self-deport" message can't be a winner with them. I suspect in AZ, they detest Sharon Angle. And who has Sharon Angle taken every opportunity to battle? PBO.