Obama 51-46 in Ohio (PPP) leads 76-24 with 19% early voters!!!!

[WI_DEM]

per their tweet--Good news. Previous poll in late September had Obama up by 4--so improvement. The state also picks Biden over Ryan in the debate--46-37 including a 12-point margin among Indies.

http://twitter.com/ppppolls

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Ohio voters on who do you trust more on the issue of Libya: Obama 51, Romney 43

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2m PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
One of the reasons Ohio's particularly tough for Romney- looking back voters support the auto bailout 54/37

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3m PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Ohio voters think Biden won the debate Thursday night 46-37, including 44-32 with independents

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4m PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
19% of Ohioans say they've already voted and Obama has a 76-24 advantage with them. Romney up 51-45 with folks who haven't voted yet

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5m PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Barack Obama leads our new Ohio poll 51-46, not much different from 2 weeks ago when it was 49-45

[hrmjustin]

1. Very good news.

[RedSpartan]

2. Boom goes the dynamite.

Ohio is as close to a must have as there is.

[WI_DEM]

6. Ohio is a Obama firewall

[RedSpartan]

21. Am I wrong with this?

(posted on another thread as well...)

Here's how I view it, and please, someone correct me if I'm totally off.

Let's pretend there are 100 votes in Ohio.

19%, or 19 votes, have been cast, and Obama leads with them 76%-24%. So Obama has 14.44 votes and Romney has 4.56 votes.

81%, or 81 votes, have yet to be cast, and Romney leads with them 51%-45%. So Romney will have 41.31 votes and Obama will have 36.45 votes.

Add them up, and Obama has 50.89 votes and Romney has 45.87 votes -- essentially the same 51%-46% that PPP is reporting in total.

So unless I am mistaken (and I admit I likely am), it seems to me that if these numbers hold, Ohio is very, very, unlikely to go for Romney unless he can get the 81% of people who have not voted yet to go for him by closer to a 56%+ level. I can't see that happening.

[WI_DEM]

28. good observation.

[titaniumsalute]

32. If the dice roll exactly as the poll is showing then your math would be correct.

You are not mistaken. You paid good attention during your math classes. LOL.

I also wonder about people who have yet to vote. Will they be middle aged-white people who may just say fuck it on election day and not bother?

I used to vote (and live of course) in Ohio. I always did early voting when I could.

[hrmjustin]

58. yes if the numbers hold. I think they will.

[CitizenLeft]

106. I haven't voted yet (Ohio)

I will either this week or the next, depending on when I can get off of work early enough.

No one in my dept - which will go for Obama 15 to Romney's 3 - has voted yet.

So even though those numbers are high, they will get higher. At least 4 others will vote early this week.

I know that's only anecdotal - hopefully your numbers hold.

[LiberalFighter]

108. The key factor are the following:

Voters that might decide not to vote on election day.
Voters because of a unforeseen incident preventing them from voting on election day.
Voters that might decide to leave before voting because the line is too long.

An unlikely scenario of a voter changing their mind after casting their ballot via early voting. Personally, I don't think this happens much if at all.

Those votes likely lock in more votes than normally would be cast if only allowing for election day voting. So that 19% might be a higher percentage.

[octoberlib]

3. Woot!!

[MFM008]

4. i knew Ohio

wouldnt let us down, O's gone up a point. If he does good in debate tuesday we all might make it through October semi-sane.

[amborin]

5. fabulous!

[TroyD]

7. But does this mean Romney appears to be leading in Ohio NOW?

Obama leads by a large margin with those already voted, which is good, but we have to get Romney's current Ohio numbers down, or he could end up catching up.

Am I reading that right?

[Alekei_Firebird]

11. Obama's crushing him in the early vote

Which means that a lot of the Obama voters have already voted. I don't think Romney can make up such a huge deficit by only winning +5% of the remaining voters. If things hold still, Obama should carry Ohio.

[WI_DEM]

12. yes, if you read the tweets at the link

it does say that among those who haven't voted Romney is ahead. But what can you expect with 20% of voters already voting and Obama up by over 50-points among them? Now we need to keep banking our voters and converting some Romney voters.

[fugop]

13. My goodness!

You really like to bring down a happy thread, don't you! Always finding the bad news in the good news.

Oh well. What can you do?

I'm enjoying these numbers, and today's been a good day for bringing up our spirits on DU. Certainly mine are up, anyway.

[TroyD]

16. Malarkey!

That's not what I'm doing. I'm the one who posted news about the PPP poll coming out with improved Saturday numbers. I simply asked the mathematical question that they are no doubt asking at Obama OHIO Headquarters! How do we find out whether there is a possibility mathematically of Romney catching up to Obama? Does Obama have enough votes banked in OHIO already, or does he need to bring down Romney's numbers?

I'm sure the Obama Campaign will make this Priority #1 this week.

[Baitball Blogger]

15. Good question.

Or, we may be back to the same problem in Arizona and the polls are not getting a good representation of the latino vote.

[WI_DEM]

19. 2 out of 10 Ohio voters have voted and overwhelmingly for Obama

so that would probably mean that a majority of those who haven't voted may support Romney. We need to keep banking our supporters including those who are not considered 'likely voters' and in the next three weeks with solid debates convert a few Romney supporters.

[TroyD]

39. 'would probably mean that a majority of those who haven't voted may support Romney'

Good point. I hadn't thought of that at first.

I was just concerned as to why Romney had a 5 point lead with current voters. But as you say, if it's the case that some of the Obama voters have already been removed from the remaining pool because they have already voted, that may explain it.

[writes3000]

17. Troy, the ANSWER is in the final numbers from PPP! Romney would have to win more than 56%

Of the remaining vote to win.

If things stay exactly the same, we win Ohio hands down! Romney won't win all undecideds. And even if he does, he still only gets 49%.

[TroyD]

35. Thanks for the info

I think the Obama Campaign, Nate Silver, and everyone else will be trying to crunch these numbers to determine the mathematical formula for Election Day that each side will need.

[Applan]

45. Do we know if the 19% means likely or eligible voters?

If the 19% represents likely voters then Willard will need to carry the remainder of the votes at 56% to 44%

But if the 19% represents all eligible Ohio voters, and they get a 60% turnout as in 2008, then Romney would need to carry over 62% of the remaining votes.

Either way it's not looking too good for the rich git is it?

[writes3000]

60. It's probably somewhere in between Likely Voters percentages and Registered voters, right?

[LisaL]

65. Since they already voted I imagine they are counted as likely voters.

[treestar]

80. 51-46 NOW

[Doctor Jack]

8. Oh shit

Today seems to be going quite well.

[Blaukraut]

9. Good. Better than I expected.

As long as Romney's advantage with people who haven't voted yet doesn't exceed the margin it is now, Obama has Ohio in the bag, and Romney has to do some serious acrobatic moves to get to 270.

[mgcgulfcoast]

10. sweet news!!

thanks

[WI_DEM]

14. you're welcome, and yes, very welcome news.

[tarheelsunc]

18. Best polling news since... that poll with Obama leading Arizona!

Hopefully this good day should calm things down around here. This is excellent news!

[WI_DEM]

22. I see Nate thinks that is an 'outliar' but I'm not so sure. Latinos are voting 77-10 for Obama in

Arizona. Obama took Latinos in AZ by only 15-points in 2008. If they vote in good margins, Obama can win.

[Drunken Irishman]

91. Nate...Nate...Nate...

[teabaggersarestupid]

20. Thanks goodness

FINALLY some good news in the polls today. First the AZ poll w/ Obama up by 2. Then Nate Silver tweeting that Hispanics may be undersampled in more realistic states like CO, NV, and FL. Capped by this HUGE poll.

Still way too close for comfort but this is the first decent polling day for Obama since the debate.

[WI_DEM]

24. And this poll is an improvement for Obama since their last poll in late September

which was a time period when the president was riding very high. Good news with that, too.

[trayfoot]

23. Wonderful News!

[JI7]

25. Obama has never been Behind in Ohio has he ?

even when Romney got that bounce and various polls had Romney leading in different places, nationally etc.

in Ohio Obama still always held the lead ?

[teabaggersarestupid]

29. Well

Romney has had 2 leads of 1 point I believe (after debate). But I know one or both polls were bull shit right leaning polls. One was gravis marketing which has been as right as any polling firm (more so than Rasmussen even).

[WI_DEM]

30. Yes, at least for this year, I believe, it has been a firewall state for him

[MFM008]

31. i think your righ

i do not recall R/R ever being ahead. These good numbers today will have the MSM quite down.

[teabaggersarestupid]

33. Here is the full breakdown of OH (excluding current PPP poll)

Rasmussen Reports

10/10 - 10/10

750 LV

4.0

48

47

Obama +1



NBC/WSJ/Marist

10/7 - 10/9

994 LV

3.1

51

45

Obama +6



Gravis Marketing

10/6 - 10/10

1313 LV

2.7

45

46

Romney +1



SurveyUSA

10/5 - 10/8

808 LV

3.5

45

44

Obama +1



CNN/Opinion Research

10/5 - 10/8

722 LV

3.5

51

47

Obama +4



ARG

10/5 - 10/8

600 LV

4.0

47

48

Romney +1



WeAskAmerica

10/4 - 10/4

1200 LV

3.0

46

47

Romney +1

[WI_DEM]

37. thanks, not surprisingly 'We Ask America', 'ARG' & 'Gravis' are the only ones for Romney

and by the closest margin as well +1 each.

[teabaggersarestupid]

43. Exactly

And what I really like about the PPP tweet is that they said Saturday was a much better day for Obama than Friday night. Perhaps (please please please) the Romney bump will FINALLY recede and/or there is a bump from Biden.

Still need Obama to kick ass on Tuesday though.

[WI_DEM]

46. I agree if we get an 'on' President Obama it is possible that the campaign could

get back to where it was prior to the first debate. Some voters may just want reassurance from the president.

[Snarkoleptic]

93. And don't forget that Gravis was outed as a fraud by our own Grantcart

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021489250

[Applan]

51. Why is that I'm always wary of any polling organization.......

Why is that I'm always wary of any polling organization that has "America" or "American in their name?

[TroyD]

26. Auto Bailout Factor:

One of the reasons Ohio's particularly tough for Romney- looking back voters support the auto bailout 54/37

https://twitter.com/ppppolls

[maryellen99]

27. Also I notice in the poll

That Ohio voters are not buying the GOP version of what happened in Libya.

[WI_DEM]

34. Note, too, that this PPP Ohio sample was +4 democratic compared to +8 Dem in '08 exit polls.

[FBaggins]

36. Excellent!

The citadel holds!

[Tribetime]

38. The BOSS and First Lady in Cleveland on Monday

It's good to see Springsteen back in Ohio. Let's keep hammering away and make sure they can't win here.

[WI_DEM]

40. Very good, and then the President on Wednesday.

[Blaukraut]

41. Oh, and this time really: Fuck Nate Silver

He tweets: Having trouble reconciling polls claiming Obama doing well among early voters against those showing a huge likely voter gap.

and to "soften" the first tweet: Do not (yet) have an opinion on whether that should call the early voter or likely voter polls into question. But seems inconsistent.

Way to piss into everyone's cornflakes, Nate. Stick to number crunching and poll aggregates. He wasn't that fast on the trigger when it came to questioning Gravis and ARG.

[teabaggersarestupid]

47. I'm not sure

why you are so angry. He's not necessarily saying PPP is wrong. He's at least considering the possibility of the pro-Romney polls as being due to overexaggerating the enthusiasm gap. This would be good for Obama.

[writes3000]

48. Actually, I think that's a positive tweet from Nate

He's questioning the validity of all those who claim Dem enthusiasm is down.

[WI_DEM]

50. Ok, good point.

[Blaukraut]

52. His second tweet says he hasn't made up his mind about that yet. My point is...

He should stick to crunching the numbers and delivering his results. It's almost as though he's upset at this poll upending his horse race narrative.

[writes3000]

56. I don't get that sense at all. He's saying his numbers suggest Dem enthusiasm...

Sure, it could be possible that these early numbers are a flash in the pan and Dem enthusiasm is shallow. But Dems seem to be flocking to early voting across the country where it's available.

[MFM008]

61. your right!

what you wrote hit me. They want this to go down to the WIRE as a photo finish.

[Mutiny In Heaven]

62. I've been questioning the LV models - see this from Florida

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251132454.

[WI_DEM]

49. I don't know why he is trying to pooh-pooh early voting polls, did he do that in 2008?

[MFM008]

53. writing for the NYT

he tries to do the fair and balance thingy.

[FBaggins]

69. I don't think it would be fair to question his doubts.

The numbers looked a little funny to me too. Let me give you the most obvious example.

From what I've been able to find, the most recent official count of early votes cast in Ohio is 175,000... which is roughly 3% of the 2008 turnout (itself pretty high at a bit under 6mil). (The real number is higher as not all counties have comprehensive counts)... AND it's reasonable to think that someone who mailed in an absentee ballot yesterday would answer that she had already voted.

Then add that 29% voted early in 2008 with a large percentage of them voting in the last few days.

So I'm forced to ask myself... how likely is it that a random sampling would end up with 19% saying that they had already voted?

Obviously... I don't know the answer. I doubt anyone does (not enough history to go by). So Silver is reasonable to at least raise the question.

Remember that we got pretty excited by the reports of early voting successes in 2010... and out extrapolations turned out to be way off. It's possible that our party is just much more likely to vote early (though I can't imagine why that would be).

[TroyD]

42. So Obama can still win OHIO by 5-6 points?

As long as he maintains his current level of support?

[LisaL]

66. If he could maintain his current level of support he would win by a much larger margine.

Early voters are heavily in his favor.
Of course no one expects he could win by that much.

[TroyD]

44. Interesting result from PPP on the VP DEBATE:

Ohio voters think Biden won the debate Thursday night 46-37, including 44-32 with independents

http://twitter.com/ppppolls

[WI_DEM]

55. yes, I saw that. Very good.

[BeyondGeography]

68. Biden is the man

Turned this whole thing back around.

[LisaL]

71. Let Biden bounce begin!

[bluestateguy]

54. That'll cue Gravis Marketing to parachute in with their own poll so they can fuck with the averages

Just watch.

[WI_DEM]

59. I wouldn't doubt that!

[regnaD kciN]

70. THIS JUST IN!!!

We Ask America 10/12-10/13

1067 LV

Romney (R) 54%
Obama (D) 44%

Who won the vice-presidential debate?
Ryan (R) 51%
Biden (D) 23%
Neither 24%

Already voted?
Yes 46%
No 54%

Those voting early:
Romney (R) 63%
Obama (D) 35%

cc: Nate Silver

[WI_DEM]

72. LOL!

[regnaD kciN]

73. And, just so people don't misunderstand the "sarcasm" tag...

...there is no such poll. But I wouldn't be surprised to see WeAskAmericARGravismussen conveniently generate one soon.

[writes3000]

57. Oh, geektragedy!!! You were sharing PPP's early warning everywhere..

Aren't you thrilled now?

[Blaukraut]

63. hehe n/t

[WI_DEM]

83. I wonder where Geek is?

[LisaL]

64. That's a huge lead with early voters!

[Cali_Democrat]

67. This is tragic for geek tragedy

[hrmjustin]

81. lol

[TroyD]

74. RCP has added the PPP poll to their OHIO average:

That makes the Ohio Graph begin to tick up:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

And if it weren't for the 3 red polls in the OHIO average (Gravis, ARG & WeAskAmerica), Obama would be higher.

[FBaggins]

75. Hey! I think we may be missing good news in here.

If they tweeted that their first day's polling showed the race "very close"... might we assume that this means a gap of 0-2 points?

Maybe the second day of polling (pulling that up to the 5% level) reflects our first real evidence of any VP debate bounce?

[Blaukraut]

82. You might be right

Wasn't there another poll a couple of days ago that had the early vote comparable to the PPP early vote, but the remainder breaking much harder for Romney than the PPP? As it is, I try to ignore the early vote margin and concentrate on the bottom line. 51 to 46 for Obama. I'll take it.

[Jennicut]

102. NBC/NYT/Marist showed practically the same findings.

Plus 6 for Obama and him leading in the early voting.

CNN had Obama by 4 after the Presidential Debate as well.

PPP validates these polls.

[WI_DEM]

76. for those who would like to read the results from PPP web site, they are now posted:

PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading 51-46, a 5 point lead not too different from our last poll two weeks ago when he led 49-45.

The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who haven't voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.

We've found a major improvement in Mitt Romney's image in most of the states that we've polled since the Presidential debate, but Ohio is an exception. His favorability now is a 45/51 spread, showing no improvement from his 45/49 breakdown two weeks ago. Obama meanwhile has seen a small spike in his approval rating, from 48/49 to 50/48.

The Vice Presidential debate may have given Obama at least a small boost as well. 46% of Ohio voters think Joe Biden won it to 37% who believe Paul Ryan was the victor. Biden's advantage is 44/32 with independents. 62% of both Democrats and Republicans say they're 'very excited' to vote this fall, reversing a trend we saw in some post-Presidential debate polling of GOP voters expressing more enthusiasm about the election this year.

One thing clear from our poll: Republican efforts to make a big deal out of Libya aren't succeeding. By a 51/43 margin, voters trust Obama more than Romney on dealing with that issue. Obama also has a 51/46 advantage on dealing with the economy that mirrors his overall lead.

One reason Romney might be struggling to get traction in Ohio even as he surges elsewhere is his record on the auto bailout. Voters in the state support it by a 54/37 margin, including 58/35 with independents. They think Obama would be better than Romney for the auto industry 50/43, and 79% of voters consider it to be an important issue including 42% who say it's 'very important.'

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-51-46-in-ohio.html

[writes3000]

85. It's great to read the whole thing. Thanks, WI_DEM!

[WI_DEM]

105. you're welcome.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

90. This implies the Obama campaign's work in Ohio is paying off.

Which is great news. Both campaigns are dropping tons of money and volunteers in Ohio.

I'd like to think my small contribution of money and time are helping to win Ohio. Silly, I know. But it makes me feel good.

[WI_DEM]

94. I think it definitely is

[TroyD]

77. PPP also shows Sherrod Brown +7

Brown 49

Mandel 42

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_1013.pdf

[Democratopia]

78. Thank you Mr. Biden. Finally a day where I haven't bitten my nails.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

79. Yay!

PPP was teasing with their previous tweets? Not that it matters, this I great news!

[aaaaaa5a]

84. This IS AN NATIONAL POLL!

If or should I say WHEN Obama wins Ohio he will only have to win Iowa or Nevada to secure a second term. EVEN IF he were to lose New Hampshire, he could still get there with victories in Iowa and Nevada assuming he holds Ohio.



NOTHING ELSE MATTERS.


As 2000 taught us all, the goal is 270! Not who is winning the popular vote in a daily national tracking poll.

[WI_DEM]

92. I, too, have felt that whoever wins Ohio wins the presidency.

[aaaaaa5a]

86. For our Republican friends questioning the poll.

From PPP:

D+4 sample on our poll showing Obama up 5 in Ohio. 2008 exit poll was D+8

[Skraxx]

87. Repubs Are Not Motivated To Vote For Romney, Look At The Early Vote Numbers

Why aren't they early voting? Either their is something in the demographic that says for some reason they are less likely to do so, or they are not motivated to vote for him. IMO, this indicates a real lack of motivation. That could change, but if I were Romney, I'd be worried about it.

[dgraz007]

88. Thank you..

I suspect I will sleep better tonight. I am not as good at math, as some of you are; but when I see it explained here..it does makes sense. Staying positive.

[WI_DEM]

89. excellent, we all need to stay positive.

[geek tragedy]

95. Okay, I can sleep this weekend.

Gobama.

[onehandle]

96. Downticket. Downticket. Downticket.

The President will be re-elected.

Downticket. Downticket. Downticket.

To make it real.

[WI_DEM]

109. Yes indeed.

[skeewee08]

97. This is good news!!!!

[budkin]

98. That's what I'm talking about!!! Ohio baby!

Gotta focus on Ohio!

[demwing]

99. If Obama has 75% of those who voted early, and...

45% of those remaining who did not vote early, that works out to 50.7% of all voters favor Obama.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

100. Just quick donated another $10. We must win! The alternative is terrifying.

[progressivebydesign]

101. tell that to the assholes at Reuters, who just put a story on Yahoo that ROmney is TIED with Obama

AND that ROmney has SURGING CROWDS of THOUSANDS!!!!

I wanted to punch my computer. There was not ONE poll cited in the article.. just a puff piece about how ROmney is surging and winning in the polls in Ohio. Fuck them.

[WI_DEM]

103. typical of the MSM

[DCBob]

104. The early voting numbers are great..

they are like money in the bank. No matter what happens between now and then they are counted votes.

[WI_DEM]

107. I agree