H-676; B-479. 197 spread, no change from last week. 166 up tomorrow.

[morningfog]

Last edited Tue Mar 8, 2016, 01:04 AM - Edit history (1)

All the pledged delegates from the weekend's contests have now been allocated.

Bernie held his ground, still trailing by 197 delegates.

Tomorrow Michigan (130) and Mississippi (36) hold primaries. Mississippi will go to Hillary, no doubt by large margins. All eyes will be on Michigan.

Michigan is a test for both candidates. Can Bernie carry a large diverse state? Can Hillary get a convincing win in a left-leaning state?

Edit to add link to green papers source: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D-PU.phtml

[MADem]

1. 538 predicts, for any one interested.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/

[Number23]

2. "Hillary Clinton has a greater than 99% chance of winning the Michigan primary."

Damn. Just, damn.

[pat_k]

6. Wonder what it would be if fivethirtyeight included today's MSU poll?

MSU finds the race to be closer than the polls included in the fivethirtyeight analysis:

MSU poll:
Clinton 51.9%
Sanders 46.9%
Sample 262 likely voters
Margin of error 6.1%

If the MSU numbers reflect reality, winning is within the margin of error.
http://ippsr.msu.edu/presidential.pdf

Perhaps fivethirtyeight will include the most recent polls if they update forecast tonight.

One thing to keep in mind, the predicted margin is far more important than the predicted probability of a win.

If he does as poorly as fivethirtyeight is currently predicting, he gets about 49 of 130 delegates. If he does as well as the MSU poll indicates, he gets 61 delegates. A substantial difference. And if he does better than 46.9%, he gets another delegate for each increment of 0.7% over 46.9%.

It's all about keeping the gap as close as possible.

And I hope he's running some ads in MS. He's going to lose it, but how big he loses it makes a big difference. (e.g., at 35% of MS he gets 12 delegates, at 15%, he gets 5).

It's all about the margins.

[MADem]

10. It looks like that poll (which was conducted Jan 25-Mar 3) IS included.

Click the link to 538 above, then scroll down.


JAN. 25-MAR. 3

Michigan State University
262 LV
0.03
Clinton +5
52%
47%

[pat_k]

13. Got it. Don't know how I missed. (nt)

[Ned_Devine]

3. Come on Michigan! Don't let us down

[LonePirate]

4. Thank you for posting the updated delegate counts.

[brooklynite]

5. Tomorrow should be +16-25 for Clinton out of Michigan

[morningfog]

9. I think it will be less. I assume you are basing your presiction

On winning by between 56-60 percent.

I think it has narrowed and could be closer, within 3 points. A total upset would be a game changer and I'd love to see it, but have no idea.

[kstewart33]

7. Thanks for posting!

[SDJay]

8. Will DWS Have a Goon Squad

at polling places to beat the crap out of anyone who doesn't vote the right way?

Or will the enforcer be carrying a bullhorn?

[MineralMan]

11. No. What makes you think that?

That's a pretty serious accusation, I think. Are you sure you want to do that?

[SDJay]

12. Are You Sure You Want To Ignore Obvious Flippancy?

The story of the mayor being told to STFU or get booted at the debate sent me around the bend with regards to that horrible head of the DNC. I'm going to continue to be flippant about it and I'm going to continue to blast it out there often. You can chose to be obtuse and/or offended if you like.

I'm witnessing the open 'gooning' of our electoral process, and we're supposed to be the party that's fighting to protect it. I'm done being polite or measured about it. If that makes you uncomfortable, I'm sorry about that. If that gets me in trouble here, I'm also sorry about that.

I've said time and time again that I'll gladly vote for whichever candidate emerges from the primary, as the alternative is simply unimaginable. I'm not a zealot for either candidate nor do I hate either of them. I am growing to openly despise DWS with an intensity that burns hotter than the sun, though, and I'm not going to be quiet about it.