Obama pollster's response to Gallup swing-state poll (actual memo)...

[regnaD kciN]

Since we've been talking about this, I think it only fair to share the actual, complete press release:

TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Joel Benenson

RE: Latest Gallup / USA Today Numbers

DATE: October 15, 2012



The latest Gallup/USA Today Battleground survey showing President Obama and Governor Romney tied with women in battleground states (48-48) is an extreme outlier, defying the trends seen in every other battleground and national poll.

— This result underscores deep flaws in Gallup’s likely voter screen.



Only 2 years ago the distortions in Gallup’s likely voter screen were exposed, leaving Gallup’s survey 9 points off the mark just days before the election.

— Gallup’s likely voter model predicted a 15 point advantage for Republicans, 55-40, on October 31, 2010.

— The final result was a 6 point margin, 51-45.

— That year, Gallup’s registered voter survey was much closer to reality at 48-44.



Gallup’s data is once again far out of line with other public pollsters.

— In 14 state polls conducted across 8 swing states since October 4, President Obama leads among women in every single one.

— President Obama has a double-digit among women lead in 10 of these polls, including several surveys where the overall horserace is close or the President is behind.

— On average, President Obama leads among women by 10.3 points and overall by 2.3 points. (See table on page 2 for results)



We believe the problem with Gallup’s outlying data is rooted in their 7 question likely voter screen, which distorts the composition of likely voters, leading to erratic and inaccurate results.

— In Gallup’s current survey, Obama leads women by 53-44 among registered voters in the Battleground States, which is closely aligned with results from other pollsters.

— It is only when the likely voter screen is applied that their results become so out of step.



Several of the likely voter questions create a bias against groups inclined to support Obama.

— For example, Gallup asks voters both whether they have voted in their precinct before and where people in their neighborhood go to vote.

— This creates a bias against registered voters who more likely to move from time to time, such as young voters, renters, minorities and urban dwellers, all of whom tend to lean toward the President.

— In the past, Gallup’s justification for such outlying numbers is that they are providing a snapshot of voter attitudes during a particular time period, not predicting the outcome of the election. But this implausible result among women appears to not even provide an accurate reflection on the electorate today, making its value questionable.

[Cha]

1. Thanks for this, regnaD I was just going to Post about this

The Obama Campaign Calls Out Gallup’s Deeply Flawed Battleground Women Poll

After Gallup released a poll showing Obama and Romney tied at 48% with

battleground state women, the Obama campaign exposed a flaw in Gallup’s likely voter methodology.

The Obama campaign pointed out that Gallup’s likely voter survey was way off in 2010, “Only 2 years ago the distortions in Gallup’s likely voter screen were exposed, leaving Gallup’s survey 9 points off the mark just days before the election. Gallup’s likely voter model predicted a 15 point advantage for Republicans, 55-40, on October 31, 2010. The final result was a 6 point margin, 51-45. That year, Gallup’s registered voter survey was much closer to reality at 48-44.”

http://www.politicususa.com/obama-campaign-calls-gallups-deeply-flawed-battleground-women-poll.html

[progressivebydesign]

2. I love when smart people make me look smart. I've been saying this all week!!

LOVE the Obama Campaign!!! They're so on it!

[Cha]

5. Toast to Smart People!

[JackN415]

3. I no longer care that much about polls, I doubt their accuracy

[BarackTheVote]

4. Interesting, their voter screening questions...

I moved into my apartment two years ago last month; I'm still in the same town, but am now in a different voting district. I also have no idea where my new polling place is. I guess I'm not a "Likely Voter."