2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum"Running Clinton against Trump is a disastrous, suicidal proposition." Current Affairs article
CURRENT AFFAIRSFebruary 23, 2016
Unless the Democrats Run Sanders, A Trump Nomination Means a Trump Presidency
Democrats need to seriously and pragmatically assess their strategy for defeating Trump. A Clinton run would be disastrous; Bernie Sanders is their only hope.
by Nathan J. Robinson
Nathan J. Robinson is a Social Policy PhD student at Harvard University, as well as an attorney and children's book author. He is the editor of Current Affairs.
With Donald Trump looking increasingly likely to actually be the Republican nominee for President, its long past time for the Democrats to start working on a pragmatic strategy to defeat him. Months of complacent, wishful insistences that Trump will disappear have proven false, and with a firm commanding lead in polls and several major primary victories, predictions are increasingly favoring Trump to win the nomination. If Democrats honestly believe, as they say they do, that Trump poses a serious threat to the wellbeing of the country and the lives of minority citizens, that means doing everything possible to keep him out of office. To do that will require them to very quickly unite around a single goal, albeit a counterintuitive one: they must make absolutely sure that Bernie Sanders is the Democratic nominee for President. From a purely pragmatic standpoint, running Clinton against Trump is a disastrous, suicidal proposition.
Trumps campaigning style makes Hillary Clinton Donald Trumps dream opponent. She gives him an endless amount to work with. The emails, Benghazi, Whitewater, Iraq, the Lewinsky scandal, Chinagate, Travelgate, the missing law firm records, Jeffrey Epstein, Kissinger, Marc Rich, Haiti, Clinton Foundation tax errors, Clinton Foundation conflicts of interest, We were broke when we left the White House, Goldman Sachs There is enough material in Hillary Clintons background for Donald Trump to run with six times over.
Its easy to see that Trump has every single advantage. Because the Republican primary will be over, he can come at her from both right and left as he pleases. As the candidate who thundered against the Iraq War at the Republican debate, he can taunt Clinton over her support for it. He will paint her as a member of the corrupt political establishment, and will even offer proof: Well, I know you can buy politicians, because I bought Senator Clinton. I gave her money, she came to my wedding. He can make it appear that Hillary Clinton can be bought, that he cant, and that he is in charge. Its also hard to defend against, because it appears to be partly true. Any denial looks like a lie, thus making Hillarys situation look even worse. And then, when she stumbles, he will mock her as incompetent.
One can already imagine the monologue:
She lies so much. Everything she says is a lie. Ive never seen someone who lies so much in my life. Let me tell you three lies shes told. She made up a story about how she was ducking sniper fire! There was no sniper fire. She made it up! How do you forget a thing like that? She said she was named after Sir Edmund Hillary, the guy who climbed Mount Everest. He hadnt even climbed it when she was born! Total lie! She lied about the emails, of course, as we all know, and is probably going to be indicted. You know she said there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq! It was a lie! Thousands of American soldiers are dead because of her. Not only does she lie, her lies kill people. Thats four lies, I said Id give you three. You cant even count them. You want to go on PolitiFact, see how many lies she has? It takes you an hour to read them all! In fact, they ask her, she doesnt even say she hasnt lied. They asked her straight up, she says she usually tries to tell the truth! Ooooh, she tries! Come on! This is a person, every single word out of her mouth is a lie. Nobody trusts her. Check the polls, nobody trusts her. Huge liar.
The full article is at:
http://static.currentaffairs.org/2016/02/unless-the-democrats-nominate-sanders-a-trump-nomination-means-a-trump-presidency
speaktruthtopower
(800 posts)we're in uncharted territory if Trump is the nominee. He might not be able to get away with abusing a woman opponent the way he did Rubio and Cruz.
840high
(17,196 posts)redstateblues
(10,565 posts)Hillary has had the Rs beating up on her for years about all that crap. Bernies unexploited vulnerabilities would make him a much weaker candidate in the GE. Hillary has gone very easy on Bernie.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Has Robinson endorsed Hillary's campaign or is he with a group involved in her campaign?
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)of steaming bovine fecal matter that is.
All of the Senate and Congress know Bernie. They ALL like him. They know that he does not launch negative campaigns.
Clinton, on the other hand, has not been on the stage as much as she has been here, and don't forget there are independent voters who will vote come November and most of them do not like her. Perhaps the more sane independents would vote for Bernie.
Clinton has not gone easy on Bernie. She lies about her record, and also "evolves" around to Bernie's positions.
If you think that the RepubliCONs are going to not go all out on Clinton come the election, you are quite naive.
nc4bo
(17,651 posts)And last I heard, their votes will be needed in a GE.
Enthusiasm among other voting demos outside of her stack, suck.
RKP5637
(67,112 posts)Hillary. And, I like both Hillary and Bernie. What bothers me is he's going to sling a lot at her, and the masses are often emotional. And the emotionality of it all might favor Trump. Also, like it or not, there is some commonalty between Bernie and Trump when all of the hateful rhetoric by Trump is removed. My concern with Hillary is he will pound that Hillary represents the establishment and no change. If Hillary loses in 2016, I seriously question the stability of the US into the future.
OhZone
(3,212 posts)imagine2015
(2,054 posts)attacking her?
Has he made Hillary a focus of any his speeches or debates?
Not to my knowledge.
I don't think she be able to deal with his attacks effectively. How can she respond?
OhZone
(3,212 posts)and she knows how to respond to it.
Trump's still got LOTS of baggage most people don't know about, and he's already trailing.
For example, did you know one of his ex-wives accused him of rape?
bobbobbins01
(1,681 posts)And he's the teflon don!
OhZone
(3,212 posts)She's been vetted for the last 25 years. WOW!
bobbobbins01
(1,681 posts)She isn't prepared, and skeletons will be found. The republicans are experts at it. She's too green.
fun n serious
(4,451 posts)but how old are you? She has been under REAL HORRIFIC scrutiny for 25 years. She isn't prepared? No no one in this world is more prepared. No one. No one has been more trashed than her. Not even OJ Simpson....
bobbobbins01
(1,681 posts)And between her and Bill, there are so many skeletons that Trump will relish discovering. The democratic party as a whole will end up humiliated. How long until Trump starts mentioning Jeffrey Epstein? We're looking at a train wreck.
fun n serious
(4,451 posts)Kenneth Starr, Linda Tripp, Karl Rove and Bernie Sanders plus others...
https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/709894680658513920
bobbobbins01
(1,681 posts)What are you even talking about?
And you haven't seen it all...cheating is a scandal, child sex trafficking is a republican wet dream. They'll run Hillary and Bill both through the grinder on that alone. Then they'll rehash the emails and benghazi, and finally they'll go after the donations to the Clinton Foundation for favors at the State Department. If she makes it past the general, at minimum she'll be immediately impeached. But with the current republican climate, we're probably looking at something much worse.
fun n serious
(4,451 posts)Speaking of child sex trafficking... that is something Trump did not Clinton. Right Wingers grasping at straws.... As if I am not use to it.
bobbobbins01
(1,681 posts)And it hasn't been done yet, it happened when no Clinton was running for office. So that means its one of many new scandals the republicans are just sitting on until the right moment. They're smart enough to know not to play the big cards until later in the game.
fun n serious
(4,451 posts)Nothing has stopped them yet.
bobbobbins01
(1,681 posts)Even though they ran an arguably racist campaign against him.
fun n serious
(4,451 posts)Besides, BO made an awesome president. Bernie is running an ugly campaign too.
bobbobbins01
(1,681 posts)And last I checked, Bernie hasn't stopped for almost twice as long as Hillary...so I guess that makes him double plus good!
grossproffit
(5,591 posts)NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)Have you been asleep for the last three decades or something?
bobbobbins01
(1,681 posts)If she makes it to the general, she's going to get hit with everything. And who knows what new things they'll find.
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)will have a much easier time against Trump.
bobbobbins01
(1,681 posts)So they don't have any effect anymore. Hillary introduces a whole new avenue of attack. And unlike when Bernie criticizes her on policy, she won't be able to hide behind Obama and say he did it to when they hit her with what dirt they have.
fun n serious
(4,451 posts)A lot of dirt. Be positive we will win. If Bernie can't beat Hillary he can't beat Trump
bobbobbins01
(1,681 posts)And yes, Bernie can win against Trump, because the general election is a totally different demographic than the primaries. You should probably know that, how old are you?
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Trump has nothing, absolutely nothing!
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)anyone of them against another Clinton-you wanna see some party unity. Do you really think Hillary can lure Repukes away from the party? She's already trashed the indi and youth vote
here's the raw primary voter numbers total to give you a clue
pukes 19,097,136
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_vote_count.html
dems 14,757,215
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_vote_count.html
pukes ahead 4,339,921
Schema Thing
(10,283 posts)She's disliked, and that "baggage" is just sitting there, waiting for the next person to point at it and remind folks all over again why they don't like "Her".
OhioBlue
(5,126 posts)Trump is unlike anything we have ever seen. Forget political correctness, there is no decency or respect for another human with him. There is no honesty. He will make things up on the spot to deflect, redirect, insult, hit where it hurts.....
bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)OhioBlue
(5,126 posts)Coincidence
(98 posts)UMTerp01
(1,048 posts)How many doom and gloom of these Hillary vs Trump articles are there? I guess we will see them all the way until election day. I just don't think that Trump has a chance given he's relying on one group of people (white voters) to put him over the top. There's just not enough of them to do it. People talking about he's rebuilding the Reagan coalition. This isn't the 80s. Latino population then was nowhere near what it was today and you can't win without getting a good chunk of Latinos. Ain't happening, but carry on.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)You have the floor.
RobinA
(9,894 posts)It drags out Travelgate et al., which no one gave a crap about at the time and certainly no one cares about now.
Second, it completely ignores the fact that Trump has his own Jersey-sized swamp of sleaze just waiting to be exploited.
DemocracyDirect
(708 posts)I am totally worried.
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)the best words,
and pictures, the best pictures,
and audio, the best audio
Arf! ARF!! ARRRR-RRRFFF!!!!!!!!!!!!
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)And he'll hire some effective propagandists to spread his dirt.
The best, for big bucks.
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)Hmmmm sounds -a lot- like some dog has sniffed out Trump lying.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)It's disgusting and it's effective.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BDBS8bYGhWr/
grossproffit
(5,591 posts)MadBadger
(24,089 posts)You or I may not have an issue with it but I dont have the same belief of the general public.
And his response, "I'm a DEMOCRATIC Socialist," won't cut it at all.
Response to MadBadger (Reply #20)
imagine2015 This message was self-deleted by its author.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)"Theres only one real way to attack Bernie Sanders, and we all know it: hes a socialist fantasist out of touch with the Realities of Economics. But Trump is in the worst possible position to make this criticism. Economists have savaged Trumps own proposals as sheer lunacy, using every word deployed against Bernie and then some. And while from a D.C. policy veteran like Clinton, charges of a failure to understand how political decisionmaking works may sound reasonable, Sanders is a successful legislator who has run a city; the host of The Apprentice may have a more difficult time portraying a long-serving congressman as being unfamiliar with how Washington works.
Of course, the American people are still jittery about socialism. But theyre less jittery than they used to be, and Bernie does a good job portraying socialism as being about little more than paid family leave and sick days (a debatable proposition, but one beside the point.) His policies are popular and appeal to the prevailing national sentiment. Its a risk, certainly. But the Soviet Union bogeyman is long gone, and everyone gets called a socialist these days no matter what their politics. Its possible that swing voters dislike socialism more than they dislike Hillary Clinton, but in a time of economic discontent one probably shouldnt bet on it."
From the same article.
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)Then we could have some idea of how the candidates match up before the primaries end.
riversedge
(70,260 posts)aidbo
(2,328 posts)It was unsettling.
LibDemAlways
(15,139 posts)The attacks will be relentless, and Trump certainly knows how to latch onto a theme and expound upon it in plain language that the most simple-minded of his supporters can immediately understand. It's propelled him to front runner status, and yes, it is unsettling.
Kip Humphrey
(4,753 posts)the Rules Committee at each convention.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)of pledged delegates and that will be that on the Democratic side.
Republicans nobody knows.
Kip Humphrey
(4,753 posts)the Dem. Rules Committee indeed does also have the power to throw open the 1st round of voting. It may require a separate floor vote, I'm not sure.
Some of the best convention watching has been of Rules Committee hearings.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)convention. Hillary will have the delegates, the rules committee will be behind her and that will be that. But, the RNC should be a mosh pit so that will be fun
Coincidence
(98 posts)deathrind
(1,786 posts)HRC brings truckloads of baggage for Trump and the republicans to unload on her with.
Republicans will have no shortage of negative Clinton history to use against her, their biggest constraint will be not having enough time between now and November to use it all.
But if what I read in another thread today about the server Clinton set up as Sec State was true republicans may not have to do anything to defeat her.
asuhornets
(2,405 posts)u think because you posted so so many words, it's believable.
Land of Enchantment
(1,217 posts)how different things would be today had the treatment and MSM coverage of Trump and Bernie been switched. Trump has received billions of dollars worth of airtime while Bernie was blacked out. The power of the Corporations is largely responsible for this monster THEY have created.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)ucrdem
(15,512 posts)alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)will look silly, but everyone will soon thereafter have forgotten about their silly little predictions, because it's just that part of the campaign where the losing candidate's supporters start the whole "We're gonna LOVE saying 'We told you so'" - a stage of childishness that happens during every contested primary, and nobody will care, because it's just hurt feelings and bad form and not about politics or policy at all.
The same happened to the Hillary people who swore up and down and forever that American would never ever ever ever elect a black dude named Barack Hussein Obama, and what were we Obama supporters even thinking and they're gonna say 'We told you so' and they're sure, sure, sure, sure, sure, sure, sure that he has too many negatives and - hey everybody, remember
TONY REZCO
Remember? Wasn't that fun? Remember "Gawd-damn America!" Oh, lawd it was good times. Remember the half yard in Hyde Park and that Tony Rezco? The scandal that would put McCain in the White House! You know why everybody forgets about this shit? Because it's primary season nonsense, and happens every time. I can forgive the new voters and excited young for not recognizing it, but the old folks who are acting like this is their first go-around need to stop by the Perspective Store first thing in the morning.
elleng
(131,018 posts)we will lose.'
Marco Rubio
kcjohn1
(751 posts)Of people. Just voters. How do you think GOP win elections?
50% of people don't vote and majority are democrat (or should be based on views). I don't suspect they will be running in droves to vote for someone who loves wars, loves all trade deals that takes away their jobs, in bed with Wall Street, lies to them, and gets rich through public service. Harsh but Clinton is not going to bring anyone who has given up on the political process. She probably will drive some away.
elleng
(131,018 posts)lies to them, and gets rich through public service.' We will lose.
kcjohn1
(751 posts)That is how Dems run against GOP and when they win that is how they win. Obama did that perfectly against Romney. Lots of white voters who normally are fooled by GOP saw through Romney and his greed in outsourcing jobs. They just did not vote.
Its going to be the opposite with Clinton. She will be the candidate of Wall Street. She will be the candidate of war. She will be the candidate outsourcing jobs through trade. Normal Dem positions will be flipped and Trump will go there because he is not normal GOP candidate.
This will result in the loss of more white working class voters and higher turnout among them. Dem turnout will be lower as result of the brutally negative campaign.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Democrats have spoken, we don't want Bernie!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Waiting For Everyman
(9,385 posts)Bookmarking for when this comes to pass.
kcjohn1
(751 posts)And how many sexist and racists are in this country.
Trump has very good chance against Clinton. GOP has being the party of racists and antiwoman for 20-30 years. Trump being blatantly this is not going to hurt him.
If Romney got the 5M voters who voted for McCain that didn't vote for him, he would have won.
Trump is going to bring those voters and racists who don't vote. He is also celebrity and don't underestimate the low info voters who think this country can be run like a business, and he is the perfect guy. Clinton is going to be demolished with so many attacks (some true like Iraq war , Wall Street, Trade, corruption, etc) that she will not be able to get huge turnout. In fact she will try conservative campaign to win over blue dog dems / moderate GOP voters and that will backfire which will be blamed on us libs.
I'm seeing all of the signs of him doing just that. And the current political situation, especially if the DNC's favorite wins favors him to win it all. I just hope everyone ready to deal with the aftermath.
PFunk1
(185 posts)They already used their "resources" to both promote their candidate and push/ignore any others that are a threat to him. Eventually they'll turn their attention to her-and not in a good way.
(Note: I think everyone knows what 'idiot' I mean-I just not mentioning his name)
highprincipleswork
(3,111 posts)AZ Progressive
(3,411 posts)That could be because around 70% of Republican voters are from the wealthier 1/2 of society, and wealthy people are very reliable voters. The evangelicals are also very reliable voters.
BreakfastClub
(765 posts)his adversary is? Has this man not been watching the republican primary?? God, people, sometimes...
Response to BreakfastClub (Reply #74)
Name removed Message auto-removed
silvershadow
(10,336 posts)we are trying to save the party from disaster. Hillary's ego and ambition are in the way. Trump will eat her lunch. which is actually secondary to the fact that she is completely out of touch with the political climate this year.
artislife
(9,497 posts)He is gonna win. He has enthusiastic supporters.
BreakfastClub
(765 posts)it comes to Hillary Clinton. Hillary has had a stellar career and has never been found guilty of anything. What facts are you talking about?
artislife
(9,497 posts)Monsanto
Wall Mart
Libya
Honduras
TPP
Oj wasn't found guilty, too.
At first...
I am just gonna sit back and watch it like it is a monster truck rally.
LibDemAlways
(15,139 posts)consider voting for Hillary. His response: "No way. She was on the board of WalMart. She voted for the Iraq War. I could never vote for someone who endorsed that shit."
He'll be voting for Bernie in the primary as will my daughter and all of her other friends. I suspect many millenials share their views. Come November, if It's Hillary or Trump , they intend to write in Bernie or vote Jill Stein.
BlueStateLib
(937 posts)djean111
(14,255 posts)artislife
(9,497 posts)LibDemAlways
(15,139 posts)many of them, particularly young people who see most politicians as corrupt anyway, will say "no thanks" to both and vote their conscience. That's just reality.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)That's just reality folks, not the fantasy land of some Hillary supporters.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Well, I hadn't looked at it that way until your post.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)It is impossible in this country. Trump is a loser and you might re read the new TOS.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Not without a massive turnout, something she has not done in the primaries compared to Trump.
And she's been unable to have mass turnouts at her meetings.
artislife
(9,497 posts)Good luck to you all...because if if you look at it with MATH, you will see it.
PATRICK
(12,228 posts)Bush v. Richards for the Governorship of Texas. Businessman "outsider" pretty much gets the election. No the resemblances are not, will not be absolute but there is great food for thought here on what has happened often before when no one(except the challenger and the mindset of the voter) was expecting it. I'll let others parse and ruminate over the history and note other riggings than the timely question on crime control by an obvious plant. The fact is people were ready, hungry?, for change a number of times in our largely dissatisfied times. Dissatisfaction comes from war, fear, declining life(style) salaries etc. the mood is pre-rational. many pre-judgments are NOT easily moved to a rational or right conclusion- especially by reason or the right conclusions, but driven by emotion. At a certain time as a fluid settles and the ripples smooth, opinion is set. Reagan is "not scary". Still fed up with wonkish Carter. Dukakis is a stone cold wimp. Gore is a liar. Bush is an OK guy.
I would not go so far the poster, but in a debate setting the nation is in extreme peril for tipping the balance to the irrational irrevocably. A couple of successful memes and fixes might be all it takes. It might then still be a close election but you know it shouldn't have been or allowed to be by the party. Not that wiser decisions wouldn't have led to risky centrist candidates as well. In fact in other scenarios for an OPEN SEASON Sanders would likely have been more easily sidelined, might likely never have run. Falling on the football while the other team is buying the referee, stealing the clock, might not actually, you know, win the game.
Trump seems too much the egotist to get the machinery behind him, but really, aren't all the GOP monsters unelectable by a supposedly intelligent species?
In the run up to the Iraq war we had reasonable disputes on "what would happen." The emotional drift ran high into getting our butts wiped when in theory and in fact we only risked it and solved in with a full court blitzkrieg. Looking beyond was what was more predictable- and where reason could not face the stupidity of unchanging arrogance. Thousands of soldiers lives were needlessly lost, Iraq ruined, the money guy orgy a mess with hangovers for the taxpayers. They always performed below expectations because they had the power, the impunity, the immunity.
By not taking risks and settling for Hillary, the party has still risked the voters- a set bloc that seems to only increase at all with a dose of fear. It is not settled whether Trump(Anger Man) will be so dangerous come fall, just that what the people have hungered for- accidental democracy has steamrolled the GOP in ways beyond irony giving them non issues to blanket the meltdown like THEY always wanted. Wisdom or nightmare? Maybe both party leaderships are wrong, and neither fit to govern, but the grand vacuum is kept, at present, unoccupied.
delrem
(9,688 posts)I think the USA is immersed in a circus.