Pledged Delegates: H-1121; B-799 (98 outstanding from Tuesday's contests) Bernie needs 57.6% of PDs

[morningfog]

There remain 98 delegates which have not been allocated from Tuesday's contests: 40 in FL, 53 in IL, and 5 in OH.

Including those 98 (which will largely go to Hillary), there remain 2131 pledged delegates left in the race.

Currently, Bernie needs 1227 to reach 2,026 (a majority of PDs).

Hillary needs 905 to reach 1227.

Percentage wise: Bernie needs 57.6%; HIllary needs 42.4%.

Hillary can still win the pledged delegate race by losing every contest as long as she still takes 42.4% of the delegates.

That's the math.

But, that does not mean that Bernie should drop out or that the race is over. As Hillary well knows, a lot can happen before June. As long as Bernie is in the race, she would not reach 2,026 before June 7.

Another point. If you include the super delegates currently in Hillary's corner, she would have 1,586 total delegates. 224 super delegates have not endorsed. Even by that measure, she can not add the additional 797 delegates to get her to 2,383 until the June 7 contests, at the earliest.


Numbers here: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D-PU.phtml

[merrily]

1. Bernie is leading a MUCH NEEDED movement/revolution, as well as running in a primary.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1280&pid=149458

[redstateblues]

4. It's not a revolution

[merrily]

5. Gee, what a well thought out and presented analysis. How can I possibly respond?

[KittyWampus]

16. No, to lead a "Movement/Revolution" you need to teach them how to run for office

Hillary Clinton told someone to "run for office" a few weeks back and your fellow Sanders supporters howled in protest.

If Sanders was truly leading a "movement" he'd encourage everyone to join the Democratic Party AND RUN FOR OFFICE to push it to the Left.

He's spent decades trashing the entire Democratic party and equating it with the Republicans.

Never mind all the Progressive Democrats in Congress.

You want to see a TRUE Leftwing politician who made a difference and helped effectively teach young adults how to get involved- look up Paul Wellstone.

[merrily]

19. Ah, kittycat, but it is a movement--

You just have not noticed. Quite a few people, such as Tim Canova, are running as Sanders Democrats, and at least one of them is DUer, votesparks.

look up Paul Wellstone.

Ah, wrong AND condescending, not a good look for anyone.

"your fellow Sanders supporters howled in protest." Poster, please. Even if that were so, nd I'm not a poster child for millions of Bernie supporters.

[thereismore]

2. 57.6% is difficult but not impossible. It was never going to be easy. We go on. nt

[morningfog]

3. It is very difficult. In my sober assessment, it would take a major HIllary scandal for

Bernie to reach that mark.

Before Hill Shills start pissing and moaning, I am not wishing for or hoping for that to happen. ANd I am not saying Bernie should stay in because that may happen. There are independent and valid reasons to continue to stay in to the convention.

[merrily]

6. She has to reach 53%, he has to reach 57%.

[morningfog]

9. She needs only 42.4% here on out.

[alcibiades_mystery]

7. New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland

That's a massive delegate haul.

Somebody needs to explain How Sanders even wins those states, much less wins them with 57% of the vote/pledged delegates. It would require that Sanders do something he has been almost completely unable to do yet: win major democratic stronghold urban areas in a primary. How is Bernie Sanders, who lost the major African American wards in Chicago by a 2 to 1 margin, going to win Baltimore, Philadelphia, Newark? How is he going to win north Jersey with an "anti-bank" message, when half of north Jersey works at the very banks he's arguing should be broken up? Is there any explanation for this path outside of "political revolution" or the fingers-crossed for an "email scandal?" Remember, he has to win 57% of the pledged delegates in Pennsylvania. He has to win 57% of the pledged delegates in Maryland. He has to win 57% of the pledged delegates in New Jersey. He has to win 57% of the pledged delegates in New York. Which will be the first big city Sanders wins in a primary election? Philadelphia? Baltimore? Newark? New York?

Your sober assessment is correct: barring complete and total meltdown of the Clinton campaign under the effect of some scandal, it's deeply unlikely.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. His anti-trade rhetoric will not have as much resonance here in Cali...

We have a lot of food and tech to sell...

If you notice Jerry Brown didn't say a word about TPP.

[sufrommich]

8. Sanders has got a huge problem with the delegate math. An

even bigger problem for him will be attracting new donors who will donate regardless of that math,I don't see that happening.

[morningfog]

10. That is likely true too. The funding may stay to dry up, making him less competitive when

he needs bigger wins than he has been getting.

I don't think he is dumb or vain, though. We'll see what happens in the next couple weeks.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. His money helped... His huge spending IN NC defintely shaved some points off Clinton's win.

How much, we will never know.

[sufrommich]

13. That's how Hillary Clinton racked up a campaign deficit in 2008.

Her donations dried up after it was obvious Obama was going to get the nom and she kept running.

[frazzled]

14. It means he has to win 57.6% of the delegates in every single contest

Consistently. In every remaining state. Unless, of course, he wins 80% in some races. None of this is a likely scenario unless some major, unforeseen event were to alter the race dramatically.

And each time he fails to reach that percentage of victory in a state, it ups the margin by which he needs to win in subsequent states.

[alcibiades_mystery]

15. I think he'll take upwards of 65% in a few states: Idaho, Montana, Alaska, N. and S. Dakota

The problem is that those states are delegate poor, even in aggregate.

Is he going to get 57% n Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey, New York? No. He'd be lucky to win any one of them at all. Even losing a close contest in all of them pushes Clinton's delegate count up, and that's not even likely.

That said, I want Sanders to stay in. I really do think it's important that his supporters see the actual results of these elections.

[KittyWampus]

17. I agree with you about Sanders staying in. So his supporters can't claim he was forced out

by the evil Establishment, DWS or whatever boogie-man they conjure up.

[alcibiades_mystery]

18. Yes, there's going to be a "we were stabbed in the back" faction of the Sandersians for sure

But I do want the numbers to be clear for them.

[thereismore]

20. Yes we know.