2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumGreat article about Bernie in Time
The second half of the primary will be good to Sanders. The primaries just ahead in the calendar, Sanders aides argue, are auspicious for the Vermont Senator and look more like the Northern states he has already won than the Southern, heavily African-American states he has lost. Arizona looks like Colorado, Wisconsin is like Minnesota, Washington is a bit like Vermont.
We have always understood that the first half of the calendar was much more advantageous to the Secretary, said Weaver. Wins in the second half of the primary schedule, Sanders aides say, will help them close the gap with Clinton. And with the grassroots money-making machine Sanders has, funds will not be difficult to come by.
The less hectic primary schedule helps Sanders. The states in the coming months are spaced out, with more time between primaries. Arizona, Idaho and Utah are on March 22, and Washington, Hawaii and Alaska about a week after that. But fewer delegates are at stake on each days.
Sanders, his aides say, has done best and often defeated Clinton in states he has spent more time in and been able to introduce himself, including states like Michigan, New Hampshire or Iowa. Almost everywhere we compete with her, even places that we lose, we turn around huge margins, Devine said. We can walk into place where were 20 points behind and in a couple weeks we can tie her or we can beat her. It should be noted Sanders has also lost in places he has competed hard, like Ohio and North Carolina.
http://time.com/4262056/bernie-sanders-campaign-continues/
marions ghost
(19,841 posts)DemocracyDirect
(708 posts)Go Bernie!
peacebird
(14,195 posts)magical thyme
(14,881 posts)Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)Hillary will win the larger Arizona primary, Sanders will flood the zone with his supporters in the smaller caucuses of Idaho and Washington and win those. Hillary will walk away Tuesday having extended her delegate lead.
Land of Enchantment
(1,217 posts)and now the rest of us whom they want to disenfranchise will have our say. The DNC front loaded the primaries to favor their chosen one and now that all the fruit has been picked off that tree it's time to move to the orchard.
WhiteTara
(29,719 posts)Land of Enchantment
(1,217 posts)trying to displace the traditional early states.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_primary
Front-loading and compression[edit]
States vie for earlier primaries to claim greater influence in the nomination process, as the early primaries can act as a signal to the nation, showing which candidates are popular and giving those who perform well early on the advantage of the bandwagon effect. Also, candidates can ignore primaries that fall after the nomination has already been secured, and would owe less to those states politically. As a result, rather than stretching from March to July, most primaries take place in a compressed time frame in February and March. National party leaders also have an interest in compressing the primary calendar, as it enables the party to reduce the chance of a bruising internecine battle and to preserve resources for the general campaign.[citation needed]
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)delegates to win the nomination. That isn't going to happen and every time it doesn't the percentage needed goes up.
It is time we pivot to the general and let Bernie do what ever floats his boat.
And just a word to Mr Divine, no you can't flip Hillary's pledged delegates and her super delegates do count because they will vote at the convention for her.
Jarqui
(10,128 posts)I remain convinced as I did some time ago that if there was more time, Bernie would win. The problem after Iowa & New Hampshire was that because the national media had keep him out of the news, he was not known. There wasn't enough time to do that for Mar 1 or Mar 15th.
In the upcoming battles, he has more time to make his case - which should help him as well as being out of the south where Hillary pretty much racked up her entire lead (303 delegates).
A problem now is that many are saying "stick a fork in him" so that will hurt him in the polls. But if that doesn't give her a big bump, his fortunes in this contest will improve.