(I should know better): Sanders or Clinton people: When do you think your candidate hits 2026?

[Recursion]

What state? Call this the deadpool.

[1StrongBlackMan]

1. Not a HRC supporter; but, ...

HRC: New York on April 19th

[Recursion]

2. That's a solid bet. Care to make it interesting?

One dollar.

I call Clinton on June 7th, 2016, with Cali.

You can pay me back with a two-ball handicap in billiards at some point.

[1StrongBlackMan]

3. Let's go BIG ...

$25 to the eventual nominee's campaign.

[Recursion]

6. Agreed

We'll take a "suspension" of either campaign as a victory?

I'm in. You've called Apr. 19th (or within a few days). I call June 7th, or realistically Jun 9th.

Closest one donates; for me make it the Semper Fi fund rather than a candidate.

[1StrongBlackMan]

7. Okay. You have a bet ...

Closest one donates; for me make it the TSV Alumni Chapter of Kappa Alpha Psi's Sydney L. Dawson Scholarship Fund rather than a candidate.

While we will be awarding the 2016 scholarships on May 7th, you can jump start the 2017 awards. LOL. I will get you the contact information.

[1StrongBlackMan]

14. Hold the press! ... I need clarification ...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511514358#post12

Were you including the Supers?

Though I'll write the check either way.

[morningfog]

9. Go ahead an collect. It is mathematically impossible for HIllary to reach 2,026 by or APril 19.

[Recursion]

15. Sanders could well suspend by Apr 19, though

In which case I pay up.

[morningfog]

4. That's impossible. She has 1121, 98 remain unallocated from Tuesday.

And if she got ALL the delegates between now and April 19, including NY (633) it would equal only 1852.

[1StrongBlackMan]

8. Are you excluding the Supers? eom

[morningfog]

10. The number 2,026 is meaningless with respect to the supers.

2,026 represents a majority of the total pledged delegates.

2,383 represents a majority of the total delegates (including supers).

[1StrongBlackMan]

11. Is that so? eom.

[morningfog]

12. Yes.

Here are the numbers:

A total of 4,765 delegates (pledged and unpledged). Half are need to secure the nomination: 2,383.

Of that 4,765, pledged delegates are 4,051 and unpledged (super delegates) are 714.

2,026 represents half of the pledged delegates. This number is for all the voting contests. Whoever reaches 2,026 is almost certainly going to be the nominee, as enough super delegates will join to bridge the gap to 2,383, if needed.

The OP asked when either candidate will reach 2,026. That number is only significant if you are looking for when they will get half the pledged delegates. It is not significant in any other respect. Hillary will not, and cannot reach that number by APril 17.

If you want to include supers, that is fine, but the number of relevance is then 2,383, not 2,026. And she will not and cannot reach that number by APril 17.

[1StrongBlackMan]

13. I stand corrected ... Though before writing my check, I will seek clarification from Recursion. eom

[morningfog]

17. Indeed, you two may want to change the terms of your bet.

[1StrongBlackMan]

20. Or, we'll just write checks to the worthy causes identified. eom

[morningfog]

21. Even better.

[Recursion]

18. See my PM (nt)

[morningfog]

5. Neither will or can really, until June 7.

Unless one drops out.

[geek tragedy]

16. with supers--April 19, maybe April 26.

Due to the massive number of delegates at stake on June 7 (600+), I suspect it would be very hard for anyone to amass 2028 elected delegates before then.

[Recursion]

19. Nope, pledged.

Who hits 2026 pledged first, and when.

That's the subject of this deadpool.

[geek tragedy]

22. Clinton hits 2026 on June 7. She also hits 2300 pledged on the same night nt

[Recursion]

23. I would not take that bet because I agree

I think that's probably going to be how this plays.

[bornskeptic]

24. Clinton will hit 2026 on June 7 (which is my birthday, nice present)

Most likely it will be California which puts her over, but if Bernie's momentum dies off, New Jersey might do it. Since there are 714 unpledged delegates to be assigned on or after June 7, I don't see how she could possibly do it before that.