Our nominee is a disaster:

[TalkingDog]

Time may be running out, but Democrats will come to rue Clinton over Sanders
Why there's no chance in hell I'm voting for Hillary — and you shouldn't either

http://www.salon.com/2016/03/16/our_nominee_is_a_disaster_time_may_be_running_out_but_democrats_will_come_to_rue_clinton_over_sanders/

Bernie Sanders is the only Democrat not linked to an FBI investigation. If this doesn’t mean anything to you, then you’re too terrified of Trump’s rallies to realize that Clinton could get indicted. Also, if you can’t fathom the possibility of Donald Trump winning, then keep in mind that most Americans don’t trust or like Hillary Clinton. A general election isn’t a popularity contest among Democrats. In 10 out of 10 national polls regarding favorability, Hillary Clinton has negative favorability ratings nationally in all 10.

Be very careful what you wish for, because most Americans have an unfavorable view of Clinton and Bernie Sanders already beats Trump by a wider margin. I’m only voting for Bernie Sanders in 2016 and I explain why in this YouTube segment. Most importantly, Democrats should remember that 33% of Bernie Sanders voters will refuse to vote for Clinton in November, if she becomes nominee.

As stated by The Wall Street Journal, there are a great many Bernie Sanders supporters like myself:

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll indicates one third of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders’ supporters cannot see themselves voting for Hillary Clinton in November. This could spell trouble for Clinton who will likely need Sanders’ backers in order to win the White House

.

[randome]

1. I thought fear tactics were out of fashion at this site.

[hr][font color="blue"][center]I'm always right. When I'm wrong I admit it.
So then I'm right about being wrong.[/center][/font][hr]

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Depends on who is making the folks do the fearing I guess./nt

[quickesst]

47. It's what some percieve to be...

...one of their last hopes for a miracle. Fear, superdelegates, false accusations, etc. Everything bad is now good. The very definition of desperation. What some desire is to drag this out for as long as is possible in order to revel in their role of revolutionary, despite the "revolution's" failure. Is this an attack on all of Bernie's supporters? No. It is a simple observation based on my opinion of a certain minority of Bernie's supporters.

[merrily]

2. She wasn't the nominee when I went to sleep last night. Did something happen this morning?

[bkkyosemite]

28. I don't think so...let me think,,hmmmmmm,,,,,No nothing happened.

[merrily]

35. Good. I like to think I keep up with things like nomination of the Democratic Party.

Usually, there's a big gathering some place. Greek columns lately, even. (Even as a 2008 Obama supporter, those embarrassed me.)

[restorefreedom]

53. inr? is it june 7 already? nt

[merrily]

55. Uh oh. My sister's birthday and I didn't send a card, let alone a present.

Gee, even in Boston, it's usually warmer than this by June 7!

[restorefreedom]

58. uh oh, i hate it when that happens! nt

[merrily]

59. That never happens on Christmas because the war on Christmas reminds me.

It's so noisy!

June 7 2016 really snuck up on me, though.

Luckily, I keep a supply of belated birthday cards on hand for just such an occasion--and one of them actually says, "Your birthday snuck up on me."

My sister is really not much on people missing her birthday, though.

[restorefreedom]

61. that extra card drawer can be very helpful

i am not huge into birthdays either. i mean, it was my mom who did all the hard work, i just showed up.

war on christmas lol

gee i hope we don't sleep through the convention, too!

[merrily]

62. Even a stopped calendar is right twice a year.

Oh, wait. I don't think it works that way.

[restorefreedom]

64. lol nt

[PoliticAverse]

3. Do people really think Trump would win in a Trump vs Clinton contest? n/t

[sufrommich]

5. H.A.Goodman is the Bagdad Bob of the Sanders campaign.nt

[CalvinballPro]

9. +1. n/t

[AgingAmerican]

15. Yes, because the media has been obsessing over and pumping up his candidacy for months

Even MSNBC is all Trump, all the time.

There is very little enthusiasm surrounding her campaign.

[geek tragedy]

23. yet every poll shows her beating his orange ass nt

[AgingAmerican]

65. Barely

And losing to all the rest

[geek tragedy]

66. there won't be a "the rest"

and Ted Cruz has better numbers than Trump for the same reason Sanders has better numbers than Clinton--no one other than primary partisans are paying attention to him.

[merrily]

37. Some people do. I cannot imagine it. Then again, I cannot imagine

all the people who already have voted for him voting for him, but they did.

[hrmjustin]

4. These be very afraid of Hillary threads are getting so played out.

[bkkyosemite]

30. So are the Benie is done threads..you must vote for Hillary

[hrmjustin]

33. Your observation skills are amazing.

[bkkyosemite]

34. Thank you so are yours....................................

[merrily]

39. Walking away is best.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

60. Other than Obama, no politician (FDR, maybe) has garnered so much hate from so many

than Hillary Clinton.

Politically she is a moderate, like Obama there is absolutely nothing about her that is extreme in either direction.

I dont know how much has to do with gender, but some for sure.

For some reason a corporate friendly politician is bad but if it is Hillary then she is to be hated and to be considered the worst politician of all time.

Crazy stuff.

[MadBadger]

6. In a new WSJ/NBC Poll, 82% of Democratic Primary voters could see self supporting Clinton

17% say no. For Bernie. 72% could see themselves supporting Bernie, 26% say no.

hmmmm

http://www.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/16139NBCWSJMarchPOLLRelease.pdf

Page 9

[chervilant]

20. WSJ? And, NBC?

Touting surveys from propagandist sites?

I find it nothing short of horrifying that any Democrats support someone like Hi11ary, and then have the unmitigated gall to accuse Bernie supporters for Trump's likely win!

[MadBadger]

41. I would hope this is sarcasm considering the OP's source...

[chervilant]

63. I hope so, too.

But, that's not been my experience with many of those DUers who support Hi11ary. I find it disheartening, to say the least.

[MadBadger]

67. I don't think you follow

[chervilant]

68. That's okay.

It's not a good source, regardless of the info they share.

[Chan790]

25. That just means neither of them can hold onto the White House.

Which is saddening, but predictable with how much the media is pushing Trump.

If we're going to lose either way, I'd rather lose with the non-Democrat espousing Democratic values than the Democrat espousing moderate Republican values.

[LonePirate]

7. It seems these voters are unpatriotic as they are willing to let Trump destroy America.

They should put their country ahead of their egos.

[CalvinballPro]

8. Another stinking mess from HA Garbageman.

[Lucinda]

10. HA Goodman is pretty ridiculous. n/t

[DanTex]

11. H.A. Goodman! The guy who promised Hillary would come 3rd place in Iowa.

And that Bernie would crush her on Super Tuesday.

[workinclasszero]

22. Oh my...

Old H.A. sure knows what hes spewing about eh?

[JaneyVee]

12. Bernie is the disaster:

You think Repubs are going to just let his questionable rape essays, draft dodging, taxing the middle class, and calling himself a socialist just slide?

Theres a reason they want him to be the nominee: he hasnt been vetted.

[imagine2015]

32. Right! That's why only a handful of people attend his so-called rallies and why masses turn out to

hear the spell binding orator Hillary.

[Arugula Latte]

52. "Draft Dodging" -- You mean like Bill Clinton?

[Godhumor]

13. Well, at least Ha! finally acknowledges she is the presumptive nominee

That's progress, of a sort.

[LWolf]

14. If you are prematurely crowning Hillary Clinton as the nominee,

then yes. She's a disaster that her supporters, and that the Democratic Party, will be choking on for years to come.

[leftofcool]

16. HA garbageloser speaketh!

[Avalux]

17. She's not the nominee yet and if she is, I don't think I can vote for her.

The reason "to keep Trump out" just isn't good enough. Hillary is a liar and I have no way of knowing if she really would be better. What in her history tells me she keeps her word?

[workinclasszero]

19. H A Goodman

[NCTraveler]

27. Goodman makes BB look credible. nt.

[workinclasszero]

29. LOL

IKR?

[NuclearDem]

44. Either Baghdad Bob or everyone's favorite news anchor:

[geek tragedy]

21. Fuck HA Goodman and his fellow "Bernie or Bust" narcissistic morons. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. I am not down with Ha Ha Goodman the clown./nt

[NCTraveler]

26. Of course Paul supporter extrordinaire Goodman isn't voting for Clinton.

He isn't voting for Sanders either. He is ratfucking and making money at the same time. His writing is simply painful to read.

[workinclasszero]

31. +100

For truth!

I wonder how much Trump/Rove is paying that shill?

[beachbumbob]

36. Supporting trump is your position???

You can't be a democrat, progressive or liberal and be supporting trump...

[NuclearDem]

38. PEOPLE OF THE DNC, I AM GOODMAN

TO PROTECT THE LIFE CYCLE

[NowSam]

40. There is no nominee yet

Let the voters decide.

Bernie. California. For the win.

[Agnosticsherbet]

42. It appears that Democrats do not respond Republican fear as a campaign tactics.

We will hear lots of that from Trump, I suspect.

[Lizzie Poppet]

43. Ignoring the "poisoning the well" fallacies the Hillary acolytes are spewing in this thread...

...the article, regardless of its author, makes a very good point: a significant percentage of Bernie's supporters will never, ever vote for a candidate like Hillary Clinton. Her positions on too many matters of critical importance to these voters are deal-breakers. Leftist independents and progressive Democrats not blinded by inane brand loyalty are always going to reject a Republican Lite.

Unless a near-miracle occurs and Bernie gets the nod, November is going to be a bloodbath. Hillary will drag the downballot down with her...

[NuclearDem]

46. When we're discussing future events and predictions

it's entirely relevant to bring up the fact that the Nostradumbass who wrote the article has a spectacular record of being wrong about the primary.

Poisoning the well would be saying something like "he's wrong about this, he's a child molester", something that has absolutely no bearing on his credibility.

[Lizzie Poppet]

48. Except few if any of those responses are making any such point about this predictive abilities.

They're mostly just simple ad hominems, not critiques of his credibility.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

54. H A Goodman - Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus.

He has the political acumen of a palm tree.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

57. Well, there's a theory in search of reality

Well, here's a theory in search of reality, ergo:

Unless a near-miracle occurs and Bernie gets the nod, November is going to be a bloodbath. Hillary will drag the downballot down with her...

The peer reviewed research suggests asking voters who they think will win is the best predictor of electoral success, ergo:

Simple surveys that ask people who they expect to win are among the most
accurate methods for forecasting U.S. presidential elections

https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf

[div class="excerpt]

.

Studies of prediction market accuracy for election forecasting commonly compare the
daily market forecasts to results from polls published the same day. These studies generally find
that prediction markets yield more accurate forecasts than single polls.

https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf

Hillary Clinton is a nearly 1/3 favorite at the offshore betting sites and the VT senator is nearly a 30-1 underdog


http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner





The efficacy of polls nine months out in predicting a general election winner is essentially null:

Trial-heat polls, hereafter simply referred to as polls, ask respondents for whom they
intend to vote if the election were held today. That is, polls do not provide predictions; they
provide snapshots of public opinion at a certain point in time. However, this is not how the
media commonly treat polls. Polling results are routinely interpreted as forecasts of what will
happen on Election Day (Hillygus 2011). This can result in poor predictions, in particular if the
election is still far away, because public opinion can be difficult to measure and fragile over the
course of a campaign. However, researchers found ways to deal with these problems and to
increase the accuracy of poll-based predictions

https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf

[Jester Messiah]

45. She's not our nominee yet.

And she'll never be mine.

[grossproffit]

49. H.A. Goodman = Ultimate Bernie Bro: Meet the Hillary-hating Rand fan

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/02/ultimate-bernie-bro-meet-the-hillary-hating-rand-fan-who-experienced-the-bern-and-fell-in-love/

[Betty Karlson]

50. She is not the nominee. Half the primaries are still to be had.

[Arugula Latte]

51. Agree. Hillary will be the worst presidential Dem. nominee in recent memory.

[thereismore]

56. Even if most of the 1/3 professing to not vote for her relent and do vote for her,

a single % makes a huge difference in the general. Democrats are playing with fire, but then again, maybe it's time for the DNC to have a major overhaul. Anybody who doesn't believe that is just blind.

[Vote2016]

69. I think I'm in the third.