2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNY Primary Rules make it a very bad state for Bernie
So just a quick list:
NY is a closed primary - Other than NH and VT, Hillary had won registered Democrats in every primary so far by double digits.
Last day for change in party registration was in October - even if Democratic leaning independents want to become Democrats due to Sanders, they're already shut out of primary.
Last day for brand new voters to register is about month before the primary - No last minute voter drives on college campuses in NY. As a result, NY voters are going to skew dramatically into the older demographics that favor Hillary.
And this didn't even get into polling, urban support, etc. The fact is that administratively, NY is one of the very worst, if not the worst, states for Bernie to compete in, as his two strongest demographics (Independents and youth) are closed off and minimized, respectively.
comradebillyboy
(10,168 posts)riversedge
(70,260 posts)implement them (except for his call for the Political Revolution). Not Sanders himself.
pinebox
(5,761 posts)Clarify here please because you're hyphenated.
Is it his policies OR the lack of details he gives regarding his policies?
riversedge
(70,260 posts)pinebox
(5,761 posts)because I am genuinely curious.
Which polices of Bernie do you not like?
Walk away
(9,494 posts)Raising taxes on the middle class and yelling and poking his finger in people's faces are just two of the hundreds of reasons so may people find him unacceptable.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Hillary will probably do better than Cuomo, because she's not Cuomo.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Bernie will do well in rural upstate areas, but she's going to really run up the score on him--to the point of nonviability in some CDs--in NYC metro.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)The part of Brooklyn that doesn't have twee lads wearing skinny jeans? Blowout for Clinton.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)riversedge
(70,260 posts)also. New Yorkers seemed to like her
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)It should be a big night for her.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)firebrand80
(2,760 posts)Just kidding
yardwork
(61,678 posts)Those who registered to vote will be able to vote. I'm not sure why you are stating that youth are closed off from voting in NY. Please clarify.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)First time voters have to register one month before the primary to vote in the primary. No "day of" registering or college drives.
yardwork
(61,678 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Probably still not your preferred word choice, but the 18-22 population in this primary will be minimal.
yardwork
(61,678 posts)We have to vote these Republicans out of office. They are suppressing the vote all over the country. But it hurts our case when we exaggerate. So far, minority and youth votes aren't literally closed off - just suppressed.
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)Sanders campaign before the cut off. Bad planning. I remember watching in amazement (I was a Hillary supporter in the 2008 primary) as Obama's campaign volunteers made sure their voters were registered before the cut off in every state. You can't win a campaign without exceptional planning like that.
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)Next Friday.
LonePirate
(13,427 posts)That being said, if Clinton wins NY like she has most of the other closed primary states, she will add 30+ delegates to her lead.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)Two support Sanders and one supports anything but Trump. (I will vote for Clinton in the primary.) They registered on their 18th birthdays and vote in every election.
I don't see the problem with New York's rules.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)It is a primary of actual Democrats. I like that.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)That is not the Party's fault.
riversedge
(70,260 posts)not really seen any hard evidence that is happening.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)The Sanders' revolution has not made its appearance.
pinebox
(5,761 posts)mythology
(9,527 posts)Donating money isn't the same as voting.
pinebox
(5,761 posts)yardwork
(61,678 posts)Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)I'm proud of them. They are politically aware adults who make informed choices and are responsible citizens.
Gothmog
(145,427 posts)This is a good article but this chart explains Michigan https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/14/why-hillary-clintons-delegate-lead-over-bernie-sanders-is-bigger-than-it-looks/
https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)There aren't enough hipsters in Brooklyn to help him win anywhere in NYC.
I see it as at least 58-42, maybe a bigger margin. She'll net 25-40 delegates from NY state.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Equivalent of a 15%-20% win.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Clinton is going to blow him out in NYC. Complete destruction. DeBlasio is on her side, every local pol is on her side, etc etc etc.
yellowcanine
(35,699 posts)That seems wrong and undemocratic to me.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)The state isn't dominated by the under 25 crowd but by pragmatic older voters that don't buy into the hype...
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)Renew Deal
(81,866 posts)Have to dig into it, but there are lapses
http://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/download/law/Certification2016PresPrimaryBallot.pdf
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)on both sides, there should be open voting for all elections
especially with both parties dying and indys taking over, it would behoove them to be less insular and more inclusive
pinebox
(5,761 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)how the Democratic party governs itself.
If you don't want to join the club, don't complain that you don't get to make the rules.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)City primaries.
brooklynite
(94,657 posts)...an proposed the non-partisan "jungle" primary system.
thesquanderer
(11,990 posts)He obviously needs some big support in NY. As you point out, that's no cakewalk.
AZ Progressive
(3,411 posts)See for yourself here: http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-presidential-primary-schedule-calendar/
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)I think 6 months before primary is one of the longest lead times of any state.
robbedvoter
(28,290 posts)and I am told some New Yorkers have land lines and answer random calls, which is why polls seem to favor Hillary:rolleyes: Bad, bad New Yorkers!