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Can Hillary defeat Kasich? (Original Post) kristopher Mar 2016 OP
He has won exactly one primary, the one in his home state. Warren Stupidity Mar 2016 #1
That doesn't say anything at all about his GE chances. kristopher Mar 2016 #4
perhaps you're unaware of how presidential elections work. geek tragedy Mar 2016 #7
When you decide to visit the reality based community let me know. kristopher Mar 2016 #19
Oh sure the RNC could just appoint Kasich the nominee, but that really would be the end of their Warren Stupidity Mar 2016 #26
If Trump doesn't have the minimum they have a second round and let Cruz try. kristopher Mar 2016 #39
Mitt Romney just endorsed Cruz. Warren Stupidity Mar 2016 #106
He thinks it's the best route to stopping Trump from getting 1237? kristopher Mar 2016 #107
No it wouldn't and if you read the news, they are talking about a contested election to do just that Zira Mar 2016 #112
They would have to rewrite their own rules. Warren Stupidity Mar 2016 #116
Wrong! You're missing the election. A candidate can win every state, all the delegates and still Zira Mar 2016 #111
Democrats are supporting Clinton. nt geek tragedy Mar 2016 #124
Not enough to win a GE. 37 percent of Democrats say they won't vote for her no matter what. Zira Mar 2016 #125
source for that statistic? nt geek tragedy Mar 2016 #126
hahahah THE WASHINGTON POST Zira Mar 2016 #131
lol, your source is HA Goodman. geek tragedy Mar 2016 #134
It's not inflated and it shows up in poll after poll. It's been going on all year and half of 2015. Zira Mar 2016 #136
you're saying 37% of Democrats will not vote for Clinton, but geek tragedy Mar 2016 #137
I'm looking for the Washington post poll. I'm not finding it now which is interesting Zira Mar 2016 #139
He's only been the Single United Mr. Anti-Trump for a few days. JackRiddler Mar 2016 #68
Yeah worked out well for Rubio, his predecessor. Warren Stupidity Mar 2016 #104
She can't beat him. She will have to abandon her quest to become geek tragedy Mar 2016 #2
... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #5
LOL Nailzberg Mar 2016 #27
She's going to be upset about that. Squinch Mar 2016 #48
Sanders lost. So did Kasich. You need to get out more. Trust Buster Mar 2016 #3
You seem to have trouble placing yourself properly in the time stream. kristopher Mar 2016 #6
I understand that. But, if they rip the nomination away from Trump, Trust Buster Mar 2016 #9
I don't think so. kristopher Mar 2016 #12
Trump is responsible for that turnout. Trust Buster Mar 2016 #17
No he isn't. kristopher Mar 2016 #18
For the opposite reasons, Democrats should be equally motivated. Trust Buster Mar 2016 #30
Nope. Our position is based on reason, their's on mania. kristopher Mar 2016 #32
A 6-3 Right leaning Supreme Court will effect more than just social issues. Trust Buster Mar 2016 #36
yes wyldwolf Mar 2016 #8
RCP Kasich +7.4 pts avg over Clinton, USA Today Kasich + 11 pts over Clinton. AtomicKitten Mar 2016 #10
Wasn't RCP and USA Today the ones that kept telling us Romney was competitive against Obama? (NT) apnu Mar 2016 #92
different election and different problem. Neither Romney nor Obama were so unpopular with their Zira Mar 2016 #114
Yes, she can leftofcool Mar 2016 #11
Can you provide any evidence of that? kristopher Mar 2016 #15
Kasich has 0 chance of winning the primary leftofcool Mar 2016 #21
Ignore it or not, it's a very real factor. kristopher Mar 2016 #33
Kasich is the biggest threat to Dems. Luckily... thesquanderer Mar 2016 #13
Only one Hillary can beat is Trump. n/t Herman4747 Mar 2016 #14
I've yet to see a poll where she beats him Zira Mar 2016 #113
I'm not so sure... Herman4747 Mar 2016 #119
I think both could beat him but he would be the toughest to beat book_worm Mar 2016 #16
Kasich has no chance to win the primary, but if he does... Agnosticsherbet Mar 2016 #20
He can not at this point get enough delegates. LisaL Mar 2016 #71
I know, but the premise of this thread is "What If..." Agnosticsherbet Mar 2016 #78
Not true. This is concrete planning by the RNC. kristopher Mar 2016 #94
Then we will kick his Kasich. Agnosticsherbet Mar 2016 #95
I agree lostnfound Mar 2016 #22
I think she could lose to Kasich firebrand80 Mar 2016 #23
Can McGovern beat Rubio? BainsBane Mar 2016 #24
Definitely tougher than Trump DCBob Mar 2016 #25
Doubt it. revbones Mar 2016 #28
He won't be the nominee. MineralMan Mar 2016 #29
K-shit needs 109% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination Botany Mar 2016 #31
To get the nomination all that has to happen is for Trump to not meet the 50+1 threshold. kristopher Mar 2016 #35
if it goes to a brokered convention and Trump is the closest to the nomination ..... Botany Mar 2016 #44
The suggestion that Crazy Ass Trump and his Crazy Ass followers ... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #50
Your track record for insight is poor. kristopher Mar 2016 #53
And your personal attacks on me are poorer DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #55
Your track record speaks for itself. kristopher Mar 2016 #57
Your ad hominem attacks on me reveal more about you than they can ever reveal about me. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #60
Perhaps you should hone your understanding of ad hominem kristopher Mar 2016 #62
If you believe I am your inferior in any manner there is nothing i can do to disabuse you of ... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #66
At what? Bingo? grossproffit Mar 2016 #34
Hillary defeats herself. nt PonyUp Mar 2016 #37
Maybe. Maybe not. bigwillq Mar 2016 #38
Kasich is their safe option... speaktruthtopower Mar 2016 #40
He'd beat her like a rented mule. Lizzie Poppet Mar 2016 #41
Hillary V Kasich DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #45
That settles it. A prolific poster from Camp Hill has an opinion. kristopher Mar 2016 #54
Please see post 55, Kristopher DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #58
Please see OP and make a valid contribution. kristopher Mar 2016 #59
Please see Post 60, Kristopher. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #61
Still nothing except claiming to be a victim? kristopher Mar 2016 #63
I have seen more... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #67
I truly don't find this to even be funny. NCTraveler Mar 2016 #42
It's the topic of Lawrence O'Donnell tonight. kristopher Mar 2016 #47
It's beyond foolish. NCTraveler Mar 2016 #80
Tell that to Curly Haugland on the RNC Standing Committee on Rules. nt kristopher Mar 2016 #83
I don't think she could. But I also don't think Kasich has much of a chance to win Vattel Mar 2016 #43
Trump would be a walk in the park. Kasich, much more of a challenge, but beatable (nt) Nye Bevan Mar 2016 #46
Could Mighty Mouse beat Underdog? Squinch Mar 2016 #49
Why bother with Kasich, he'll be out soon. He's running a poor third. Come on! brush Mar 2016 #51
Kasich isn't dropping out. That is established information, not conjecture. kristopher Mar 2016 #56
He can not mathematically get enough delegates to get the nomination. LisaL Mar 2016 #69
See if you can find the first 30 minutes of tonights Lawrence O'Donnell kristopher Mar 2016 #72
He's still not winning. He'll only pull votes from Cruz . . . brush Mar 2016 #99
"Why on earth would they run the weakest vote getter" kristopher Mar 2016 #110
Well, that's one opinion, but it's not reflected in the results brush Mar 2016 #115
"Primaries are held to see who gets the most votes" kristopher Mar 2016 #121
Guess we'll never know who's externally or internally correct because Kacish has no chance brush Mar 2016 #122
Nope Politicalboi Mar 2016 #52
You're right. Bernie beats Kasich by even more Waiting For Everyman Mar 2016 #64
That's why the GOP is moving him into place to replace Trump. Cleita Mar 2016 #65
How are they going to replace Trump? LisaL Mar 2016 #70
1237 delegates is what Trump also needs. kristopher Mar 2016 #73
If they steal the nomination from Trump that party slinters brush Mar 2016 #103
I dunno. That's for their Rovian manipulators to do. Cleita Mar 2016 #75
So Bernie can't even win the Democratic nomination redstateblues Mar 2016 #77
Has he lost the nomination? The primary isn't over. Cleita Mar 2016 #79
He's toast. He's going to steal all of HRCs delegates? redstateblues Mar 2016 #89
lulz Cleita Mar 2016 #90
Guess you missed the significance of that whole open vs closed primary thing, eh? nt kristopher Mar 2016 #85
Bernie is losing redstateblues Mar 2016 #132
Yes. They get Ohio, we get Florida and the rest of the blue wall gives it to Clinton. NT Persondem Mar 2016 #74
Why not? Everybody else has. dchill Mar 2016 #76
Kasich is not going to be their nominee and you don't doc03 Mar 2016 #81
Kasich has already been mathematically eliminated. 21st Century Poet Mar 2016 #82
Has it even occurred to you that if Trump doesn't have 50+1, they'll turn to Cruz not Kasich? onenote Mar 2016 #84
Yes, it's a thought. But I suspect the PTB aren't going to go through the ... kristopher Mar 2016 #86
Who do you think the PTB in the Repub party are these days? onenote Mar 2016 #88
In this case their face is the RNC's Standing Committee on Rules. kristopher Mar 2016 #91
Have any other repub leaders jumped on board the Haugland bandwagon onenote Mar 2016 #105
What state do you think Bernie wins in the general that Hillary does not bottomofthehill Mar 2016 #87
How many angels can dance on the head of a pin? kristopher Mar 2016 #93
there are only 50 states, surely you can give me one bottomofthehill Mar 2016 #108
If the GOP nominates him, we lose no matter who we run Recursion Mar 2016 #96
yep. Mine too. If they somehow stumble on him, we are in for big trouble no matter Hiraeth Mar 2016 #102
LOL XRubicon Mar 2016 #97
it would be difficult for most democrats to beat Kasich but it is possible JI7 Mar 2016 #98
He is the most sane one and Yes, I think he can beat her .... in my state anyway. Hiraeth Mar 2016 #100
Maybe/Maybe not. elleng Mar 2016 #101
Not with the Washington Post(yes a rw rag) reporting 37 percent of Dems won't vote for her no matter Zira Mar 2016 #109
How is Kasich going to win the GOP nom? DCBob Mar 2016 #117
The Republicans are trying to pull Trump. He isn't viable. Zira Mar 2016 #129
She's beating him 3:1. Sanders is beating him 2:1. ucrdem Mar 2016 #118
I think he's very strong. I'd put my money on him. snowy owl Mar 2016 #123
The only way Kasich ever gets the republican nomination workinclasszero Mar 2016 #120
This message was self-deleted by its author Zira Mar 2016 #127
where did you get that number? you still haven't divulged your source redstateblues Mar 2016 #133
He is the most dangerous candidate the GOP could put out there, because he most likely takes Ohio EndElectoral Mar 2016 #128
No! Kasich is like Snyder from MI (before Flint) tokenlib Mar 2016 #130
Probably not, he'd take Ohio. Philly-Union-Man Mar 2016 #135
yes all that Hillary needs to do is check out a few things rbrnmw Mar 2016 #138
no but he won't be their nominee Vote2016 Mar 2016 #140
 

Warren Stupidity

(48,181 posts)
1. He has won exactly one primary, the one in his home state.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 06:49 PM
Mar 2016

The fact that he is the media-anointed NOT_TRUMPF! reflects just what a bag of bad gas our media is.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
4. That doesn't say anything at all about his GE chances.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 07:00 PM
Mar 2016

In fact, given the nature of the R's primary electorate, it is an indication that he'd do well with the broader, less reactionary GE electorate.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
7. perhaps you're unaware of how presidential elections work.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 07:03 PM
Mar 2016

A candidate can't win the general election unless they first win the primary.

It is literally impossible for him to win the Republican nomination.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
19. When you decide to visit the reality based community let me know.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 07:17 PM
Mar 2016

When you have the people who write the rules on your side, almost nothing is impossible.

 

Warren Stupidity

(48,181 posts)
26. Oh sure the RNC could just appoint Kasich the nominee, but that really would be the end of their
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 07:46 PM
Mar 2016

political party. Besides, these klowns cannot even agree on who the NOT-TRUMPF! is. Lindsey Graham just endorsed Ted Cruz. They are in complete disarray. Really their only chance of winning the GE at this point is to fall in line behind Der Trumpfinator, and that is what they are all gonna do.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
39. If Trump doesn't have the minimum they have a second round and let Cruz try.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 09:12 PM
Mar 2016

If he can't do it, they have a rule change to let Kasich have a shot. With establishment support and the Supreme Court on the line I'm seeing room for Kasich as a compromise candidate.

It certainly isn't a given, but they've told him to stay in the race through the convention because they see a path for him.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
107. He thinks it's the best route to stopping Trump from getting 1237?
Fri Mar 18, 2016, 06:18 PM
Mar 2016

It doesn't give Cruz enough to win, but it stops Trump and forces the revotes at the convention.

 

Zira

(1,054 posts)
112. No it wouldn't and if you read the news, they are talking about a contested election to do just that
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 02:47 AM
Mar 2016

They cannot run someone who will not get 30% of the Republican vote. The primary is about picking someone who can win the GE and if the person picked is not viable in the GE, they may pick another. Trump is not viable. 30% of his own party won't vote for him. That means he cannot win the GE and they have to pick another.

 

Warren Stupidity

(48,181 posts)
116. They would have to rewrite their own rules.
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 08:27 AM
Mar 2016

As things are right now, as per their own rules (rule 40 specifically) Trump is very likely to be the only candidate to qualify for the nomination, regardless of delegate count. So even if he doesn't have enough delegates to win outright, there may not be any other candidates who met the nomination requirements.

They would have to rewrite their own rules at the last moment. I really doubt Trump is going to accept that level of malfeasance without blowing up the 2016 election for the Republicans.

They are stuck with him. He will likely have the delegates he needs for a simple majority. They aren't going to run a third party against him. They arent going to force him to run as an independent.

 

Zira

(1,054 posts)
111. Wrong! You're missing the election. A candidate can win every state, all the delegates and still
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 02:43 AM
Mar 2016

not be viable if 30% of their own party won't vote for them. Trump is no more viable than Hillary.

That's why the Republicans are talking about a contested election. Since he can't win the GE his primary win means nothing. They have to run someone who can win the GE. They have a valid reason to pick who will run now and ignore the primaries.

The Dems should be doing the same thing. They are too corrupt too pull Hillary though. If Bernie wins he will unify and will likely win the GE, if Hillary wins the primary she has already failed to unify and cannot win the GE. 37% of Dems say they will not vote for her no matter what.

 

Zira

(1,054 posts)
125. Not enough to win a GE. 37 percent of Democrats say they won't vote for her no matter what.
Mon Mar 21, 2016, 07:12 PM
Mar 2016

She failed.

 

Zira

(1,054 posts)
131. hahahah THE WASHINGTON POST
Mon Mar 21, 2016, 07:20 PM
Mar 2016

and WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN... Helloooooo

She went from 30% wouldn't vote from her no matter in polls over the last year, to 33 percent last month and now 37 percent this month.

Here's the 33% link. I'm trying to find the 37% link.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/33-percent-of-bernie-sanders-not-vote-hillary_b_9475626.html
http://www.wsj.com/video/poll-33-of-sanders-supporters-wouldnt-vote-for-clinton/69C05055-85FE-4320-8D02-3EAC972CACD0.html

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
134. lol, your source is HA Goodman.
Mon Mar 21, 2016, 07:23 PM
Mar 2016

P.S. that's 33% of Sanders supporters, many of whom aren't Democrats, and that number is certainly inflated by the heat of the primary

 

Zira

(1,054 posts)
136. It's not inflated and it shows up in poll after poll. It's been going on all year and half of 2015.
Mon Mar 21, 2016, 07:26 PM
Mar 2016

Wake up. It's the problem with Clinton and Trump.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
137. you're saying 37% of Democrats will not vote for Clinton, but
Mon Mar 21, 2016, 07:27 PM
Mar 2016

have yet to find a source for your own claim

 

Zira

(1,054 posts)
139. I'm looking for the Washington post poll. I'm not finding it now which is interesting
Mon Mar 21, 2016, 07:36 PM
Mar 2016

because I found it posted on two different sites.

 

JackRiddler

(24,979 posts)
68. He's only been the Single United Mr. Anti-Trump for a few days.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 10:58 PM
Mar 2016

And that is a big new advantage in a primary season full of winner-take-all contests.

 

Warren Stupidity

(48,181 posts)
104. Yeah worked out well for Rubio, his predecessor.
Fri Mar 18, 2016, 09:34 AM
Mar 2016

And what united front? Cruz is still getting endorsements from establishment idiot party leaders, like Graham. Cruz and Graham will split the not trump vote in these winner take all states, leaving the winner taking all a certain Benito Trumpf!

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
6. You seem to have trouble placing yourself properly in the time stream.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 07:03 PM
Mar 2016

If Trump falls short of the required to win delegates, the republican establishment is going to push back hard against him. Kasich is still in the race for that very reason. Out of the entire field they started with, he has always been the most electable.

 

Trust Buster

(7,299 posts)
9. I understand that. But, if they rip the nomination away from Trump,
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 07:05 PM
Mar 2016

his supporters will walk away and not look back. Either way, the Republican Party is screwed.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
18. No he isn't.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 07:15 PM
Mar 2016

That is across the board pro-gun anti-abortion Republican motivation and it is going to be very strong with months of Fox news pushing it.

 

Trust Buster

(7,299 posts)
30. For the opposite reasons, Democrats should be equally motivated.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 08:04 PM
Mar 2016

The Supreme Court will be reset for a generation to come. This election is not about who has the political power over the next 4 years. This election is about who will have political power over the next 25 years.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
32. Nope. Our position is based on reason, their's on mania.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 08:46 PM
Mar 2016

Mania is a more sure motivator for voting.

It's the standard strategy of triangulating on social issues and Hillary has been/would be playing into their hands since it also how she operates.

Her efforts during the primaries are going to have consequences.

 

Trust Buster

(7,299 posts)
36. A 6-3 Right leaning Supreme Court will effect more than just social issues.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 08:53 PM
Mar 2016

Though a woman's right to choose is very important to a Democrats. A 6-3 Right leaning Supreme would mean;

* the complete end of Affirmative Action.

* a reversal of the gay marriage ruling (also an important social issue to democrats)

* the end of the Affordable Healthcare Act.

*the end of what's left of the Voting Rights Act

* the end of class action lawsuits

* severely diminished secular rights

* the EPA rendered toothless

*** Citizens United in place for a generation

If Democrats are not motivated by just those few examples that I listed, then we don't deserve to occupy the White House.

 

Zira

(1,054 posts)
114. different election and different problem. Neither Romney nor Obama were so unpopular with their
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 03:02 AM
Mar 2016

party that 30% of their own wouldn't vote for them no matter what.

Had they been, they would have been replaced by their parties as non-viable in the GE - just like Trump is now getting replaced for the same reason. Google RNC Contested Election. It's all the talk with them right now. The DNC is conceding a loss by not replacing Hillary because of it. Thinking she could win any GE is the unicorns and rainbows. She didn't unify the party. The 37% of Democrats that won't vote for her no matter what have a large majority saying conscience prevents it because of her record as secretary of state - it parallels Kissenger's. They won't unify behind that.

She should have never run. It's a post occupy world. It's a post Gasland America. Most people are too informed to vote for the 1% plutocrat who wants to frack and supports the TPP and Keystone XL. Even the Republicans are too informed for that at this point.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
15. Can you provide any evidence of that?
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 07:11 PM
Mar 2016

I don't see anything anywhere that would support that assumption. And that doesn't take into account the shitty way the Clinton Camp has behaved during the primary campaign.

leftofcool

(19,460 posts)
21. Kasich has 0 chance of winning the primary
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 07:33 PM
Mar 2016

And even if they "gave" the nomination to him, he has not been vetted. He closed PP in his State, and that alone will bring more women out. I will ignore your "shittiness" comment since it isn't worth my valuable time.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
33. Ignore it or not, it's a very real factor.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 08:47 PM
Mar 2016

And you still have zero evidence supporting your beliefs.

thesquanderer

(11,990 posts)
13. Kasich is the biggest threat to Dems. Luckily...
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 07:11 PM
Mar 2016

...the Republicans are very unlikely to put up their most electable candidate (i.e. compared to Trump or Cruz).

Unfortunately, we're not likely to put up our most electable candidate either.

Polls at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_clinton-5162.html

Obviously a lot can change between now and then, and the electoral map means you get limited info from a general popular vote estimate.

Still, as a starting point, it's better to be ahead in the polls than behind.

 

Zira

(1,054 posts)
113. I've yet to see a poll where she beats him
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 02:55 AM
Mar 2016

and how can she beat him with her extra 7% deficit?

You know, 30% of Republicans refuse to vote for Trump no matter what.
But, 37% of Democrats refuse to vote for Hillary no matter what.

She's down 7%. And unlike Trump, she increased the amount of Dems who refused to vote for her no matter what, in the last month - by 4%. She's getting more unpopular with Dems and Trump has stayed stable at 30% with Republicans who won't vote for him no matter what.

book_worm

(15,951 posts)
16. I think both could beat him but he would be the toughest to beat
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 07:13 PM
Mar 2016

He is not really on the move. He only won his homestate. It is still likely that it will be Trump. Furthermore if it isn't Trump a lot of Trump supporters will sit on their hands and not vote in November. It is actually more likely that Cruz would be the nominee if not Trump.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
94. Not true. This is concrete planning by the RNC.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 11:54 PM
Mar 2016

If Trump gets the 1237 required on the first vote, he will be the nominee. If he doesn't, they seem set to ensure he is not the nominee by whatever tactic they have in their bag of tricks. They clearly deem the damage he'd do to the party as nominee is greater than the damage they'd do by an overt exercise of power to reject him.

BainsBane

(53,038 posts)
24. Can McGovern beat Rubio?
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 07:45 PM
Mar 2016

Can Dukakis beat Stevenson? Can Jeb beat O'Malley? Inquiring minds want to know.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
35. To get the nomination all that has to happen is for Trump to not meet the 50+1 threshold.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 08:51 PM
Mar 2016

They can then change the rules to favor Kasich and he would probably be elected (appointed) on a second or third round vote.

Botany

(70,539 posts)
44. if it goes to a brokered convention and Trump is the closest to the nomination .....
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 09:25 PM
Mar 2016

.... and they give it to K-shit then most of Trump's supporters would
not support K-shit in the general and if Trump wins the nomination he
should get crushed in the general election.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
50. The suggestion that Crazy Ass Trump and his Crazy Ass followers ...
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 10:23 PM
Mar 2016

The suggestion that Crazy Ass Trump and his Crazy Ass followers will allow the nomination to be stolen from him and them without wreaking havoc is absurd.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
55. And your personal attacks on me are poorer
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 10:38 PM
Mar 2016
Please go verbally bully and disrespect someone else, kristopher.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
60. Your ad hominem attacks on me reveal more about you than they can ever reveal about me.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 10:43 PM
Mar 2016

And the fact you use an anonymous medium to trash me adds a nice touch...

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
62. Perhaps you should hone your understanding of ad hominem
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 10:48 PM
Mar 2016

You seem to be fixated on the idea that any disagreement with your hyperbole is called "ad hominem". It isn't.
Pointing out the consistent failure to actually make a comment that deals with the subject at hand isn't a personal attack.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
66. If you believe I am your inferior in any manner there is nothing i can do to disabuse you of ...
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 10:55 PM
Mar 2016

If you believe I am your inferior in any manner there is nothing I can do to disabuse you of notion, though I am absolutely flummoxed by what you have accomplished in life that would give you such a notion.

Please bring me to heed and regale me with all your accomplishments in life, oh, and please verify them.


And as always, thank you in advance.






 

bigwillq

(72,790 posts)
38. Maybe. Maybe not.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 09:11 PM
Mar 2016

I think Hillary can win against any of the Rs and I think she can lose against any of them. Same goes for Bernie.

 

Lizzie Poppet

(10,164 posts)
41. He'd beat her like a rented mule.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 09:19 PM
Mar 2016

But outside of a brokered convention, he's not going to be their nominee. Could happen...but a very, very long shot.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
63. Still nothing except claiming to be a victim?
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 10:50 PM
Mar 2016

I invited you to comment on the topic. Since that doesn't seem to be part of your repertoire I guess we're done.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
67. I have seen more...
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 10:56 PM
Mar 2016
I invited you to comment on the topic. Since that doesn't seem to be part of your repertoire I guess we're done.



I have seem more graceful surrenders but being the magnanimous and empathetic poster I am I will accept it.
 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
42. I truly don't find this to even be funny.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 09:22 PM
Mar 2016

It's and extreme disconnect from anything that can even remotely be described as being based in reality.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
47. It's the topic of Lawrence O'Donnell tonight.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 10:20 PM
Mar 2016

They don't seem to think it is divorced from reality. In fact his panel seems to think it's a distinct possibility. What they seem rather unified on is that if Trump doesn't get the 1200+ delegate minimum, then the RNC is going to take action to field another candidate.

 

Vattel

(9,289 posts)
43. I don't think she could. But I also don't think Kasich has much of a chance to win
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 09:24 PM
Mar 2016

the republican nomination.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
56. Kasich isn't dropping out. That is established information, not conjecture.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 10:40 PM
Mar 2016

Too many sources have stated that the party told him to stay in through the convention. FFS it has been the central topic in the news for several days.

LisaL

(44,974 posts)
69. He can not mathematically get enough delegates to get the nomination.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 10:58 PM
Mar 2016

He has to win over a 100 % of remaining delegates.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
72. See if you can find the first 30 minutes of tonights Lawrence O'Donnell
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 11:03 PM
Mar 2016

He is being set up to be elected at the convention once Trump and Cruz fail to get the required majority. It isn't written in stone and it's (for them) a least worst type of option, but the possibility is very real of Trump fails to get the required number of delegates before the convention.


Also was topic on Chris Hayes.

brush

(53,801 posts)
99. He's still not winning. He'll only pull votes from Cruz . . .
Fri Mar 18, 2016, 01:41 AM
Mar 2016

and Ryan is the one that's being talked about to come out of a brokered convention if they try that.

And if they do, the repug party splits and whoever comes out of it will fall to Clinton.

If you think the Bernie backers swearing not to vote for Clinton is a thing, if they steal it from Trump, we ain't heard nothing yet as the Trump backers may even get violent.

The media loves to suck us into the horse race and/or brokered convention narrative but it's only drama-creating speculation. It gives them something to talk about and fill their air time.

As far as Kacish, no. He's got the fewest votes of anybody still left in the race in both parties.

Why on earth would they run the weakest vote getter, I don't care what the pundits say?

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
110. "Why on earth would they run the weakest vote getter"
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 02:41 AM
Mar 2016

Why on earth would they run the weakest primary electorate vote getter....?

Because he is the best, much-wider-GE-electorate vote getter.

brush

(53,801 posts)
115. Well, that's one opinion, but it's not reflected in the results
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 03:21 AM
Mar 2016

Primaries are held to see who gets the most votes.

Duh!

Kacish has gotten the fewest it doesn't follow that all of a sudden he's going to do better in the general election.

2+2 doesn't not = 5.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
121. "Primaries are held to see who gets the most votes"
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 11:40 AM
Mar 2016

No, they actually aren't. They are part of a process by which each major political party in the US choose the person they want to field as a presidential candidate in the Nov. elections".

In other words they are goal oriented to serve the needs of the party. (I'll not follow your lead here with rude rejoinders like "Duh!&quot

You also wrote that "Kacish has gotten the fewest it doesn't follow that all of a sudden he's going to do better in the general election."

1) You are correct in a narrow sense, just getting the fewest votes isn't an indicator of strength in the GE. But that isn't what the claim of GE strength is based on. So your statement, while internally valid, does not address the evidence before us so it lacks external validity.

2) The lack of external validity can be understood by noting that the people who participate in each party's primary process are not a representative sample* of the people who participate in the general election.

3) Polling designed around representative samples of the GE population consistently show that Kasich is a far, far stronger candidate than any of the other candidates in the R primary field.

I hope that helps.

I personally don't like the presidential system, I prefer a parliamentary system. However we have what we have and it isn't going to change anytime soon. That said, I also despise the two party system which is, by deliberate design, established to thwart and pervert real democratic choice in order to preserve in place a small, powerful elite.

*What is a 'Representative Sample'
A representative sample is a subset of a statistical population that accurately reflects the members of the entire population. A representative sample should be an unbiased indication of what the population is like. In a classroom of 30 students in which half the students are male and half are female, a representative sample might include six students: three males and three females.

BREAKING DOWN 'Representative Sample'
When a sample is not representative, the result is known as a sampling error. Using the classroom example again, a sample that included six students, all of whom were male, would not be a representative sample. Whatever conclusions were drawn from studying the six male students would not be likely to translate to the entire group since no female students were studied.

See also:
SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLE
STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE
SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION
SAMPLE SELECTION BIAS

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/representative-sample.asp

Waiting For Everyman

(9,385 posts)
64. You're right. Bernie beats Kasich by even more
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 10:50 PM
Mar 2016

than he beat Trump. Clinton loses to both, worse to Kasich (10+ points).

What some of these glib numbers freaks don't realize is, that Kasich could in fact end up being the nominee. It isn't only possible, I think it's likely.

Folks around here are figuratively doing this...

Cleita

(75,480 posts)
65. That's why the GOP is moving him into place to replace Trump.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 10:53 PM
Mar 2016

You are right Hillary can't beat him. I don't think she can beat Trump either.


LisaL

(44,974 posts)
70. How are they going to replace Trump?
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 10:59 PM
Mar 2016

It's impossible for him to get the delegates needed for the nomination.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
73. 1237 delegates is what Trump also needs.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 11:06 PM
Mar 2016

If he doesn't win on the first ballot, then all bets are off and the party can reset the rules to do whatever they want. They seem intent on ensuring he is not the nominee.'

Find tonight's Chris Hayes and Lawrence O'Donnell shows and listen to the discussions.

brush

(53,801 posts)
103. If they steal the nomination from Trump that party slinters
Fri Mar 18, 2016, 01:59 AM
Mar 2016

Trump has already threaten violence from his supporters if that happens.

Anybody who things a split, weakened party is going to beat Clinton, or maybe Sanders is not thinking clearly.

Cleita

(75,480 posts)
75. I dunno. That's for their Rovian manipulators to do.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 11:13 PM
Mar 2016

But they will do it. The signs are out there. The insider Repubs don't like Trump and they will figure out a way to dump him. Of course that probably won't stop Trump. He'll probably try to run third party. A friend of mine has a theory that they will string him along past the time he can register as a third party, then dump him. However my spidey sense tells me, as egotistical as he is, he still senses a knife in the back and will move before then.

Oh, about the delegate thing. That leads to a brokered convention.

Cleita

(75,480 posts)
79. Has he lost the nomination? The primary isn't over.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 11:18 PM
Mar 2016

Or do you have some trickery from camp Hillary to report?

redstateblues

(10,565 posts)
89. He's toast. He's going to steal all of HRCs delegates?
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 11:47 PM
Mar 2016

Great strategy Tad. This will be Tads fifth losing campaign

doc03

(35,358 posts)
81. Kasich is not going to be their nominee and you don't
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 11:19 PM
Mar 2016

think they will lump Bernie, Putin and Castro together. Give me a break.

21st Century Poet

(254 posts)
82. Kasich has already been mathematically eliminated.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 11:23 PM
Mar 2016

Something extraordinary would have to happen at the convention for him to be the nominee.

The national polls I have seen up to now, although I'm not sure whether they included Kasich, all say that all Republican nominees except Trump would win against Clinton.

Meanwhile, all Republican nominees would lose against Sanders.

Make of that data what you will.

onenote

(42,724 posts)
84. Has it even occurred to you that if Trump doesn't have 50+1, they'll turn to Cruz not Kasich?
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 11:24 PM
Mar 2016

Cruz will be the second strongest candidate after Trump. He's picked up the endorsement of Nikki Haley. If neither he nor Trump gets the nod after coming in first and second, the GOP will implode.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
86. Yes, it's a thought. But I suspect the PTB aren't going to go through the ...
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 11:31 PM
Mar 2016

... trouble to upend the party just to end up with another outsider. They want Kasich, his numbers against the Dems have consistently been the best and his appeal is extremely broad by GE standards.

onenote

(42,724 posts)
88. Who do you think the PTB in the Repub party are these days?
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 11:46 PM
Mar 2016

Cruz has the endorsements of two pretty significant Repub governors: Abbott and Haley (he also has the governor of Mississippi's endorsement). Kasich has the endorsement of the governors of Alabama and Idaho, who most people couldn't name without checking a reference book.

Cruz also has the endorsement of Senators Lindsey Graham and Mike Lee, which covers a lot of territory as well as around 30 current repub House members.

Kasich has endorsements from a lot of Ohio officials and a lot of former members of the House. His other endorsements include Boehner, who isn't exactly the most popular guy in repub circles -- if he was the PTB he'd still be speaker.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
91. In this case their face is the RNC's Standing Committee on Rules.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 11:50 PM
Mar 2016

Fellow named Haugland was on Chris Hayes tonight. I'm sure it's up at the MSNBC site or it will probably run again in a n hour or two, so you could record it.

onenote

(42,724 posts)
105. Have any other repub leaders jumped on board the Haugland bandwagon
Fri Mar 18, 2016, 09:58 AM
Mar 2016

He's considered something of a kook within repub circles and no one outside those circles has ever heard of him.

I wouldn't put too much stock in his theory that the primary elections and the voters wishes as reflected in those primary elections are meaningless wastes of time.

bottomofthehill

(8,336 posts)
108. there are only 50 states, surely you can give me one
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 02:31 AM
Mar 2016

its an opinion question, make up an answer. and to answer your question, i hope more than 50, see not so hard

Hiraeth

(4,805 posts)
102. yep. Mine too. If they somehow stumble on him, we are in for big trouble no matter
Fri Mar 18, 2016, 01:51 AM
Mar 2016

which one we run. Personally, I like Bernie's chances better against him but, shit .... squeaker !!

elleng

(131,028 posts)
101. Maybe/Maybe not.
Fri Mar 18, 2016, 01:51 AM
Mar 2016

She is disliked, and hated by many, and those who find trump 'unacceptable' would likely find kasich ok (because he sounds 'sane.')

Bernie would likely defeat any repug. (and 'quasi-repug.')

 

Zira

(1,054 posts)
109. Not with the Washington Post(yes a rw rag) reporting 37 percent of Dems won't vote for her no matter
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 02:37 AM
Mar 2016

what.

The Republicans will unify and vote for Kasich to stop Hillary.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
117. How is Kasich going to win the GOP nom?
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 08:29 AM
Mar 2016

If he takes it from Trump at the convention there will be hell.

 

Zira

(1,054 posts)
129. The Republicans are trying to pull Trump. He isn't viable.
Mon Mar 21, 2016, 07:16 PM
Mar 2016

30% of Republicans say they won't vote for him no matter what.

That means all the delegates in the world won't help him win the GE. They understand that and are talking about doing a contested election because of it. He failed to unite his party. He isn't viable.

ucrdem

(15,512 posts)
118. She's beating him 3:1. Sanders is beating him 2:1.
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 08:37 AM
Mar 2016

Also, I heard Kasich's victory speech on March 15 and he's not the sharpest tool in the shed.

snowy owl

(2,145 posts)
123. I think he's very strong. I'd put my money on him.
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 09:34 PM
Mar 2016

Hillary is right. She doesn't have the gene for easy listening. I think centrist dems would vote for Kasich. Not me. I'm way too progressive. But if Bernie doesn't break through and I doubt he will, Kasich has always been my fear. I hope he does not get the nomination. His affability and strong showing in Ohio would probably turn the tide. He would be our next President.

 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
120. The only way Kasich ever gets the republican nomination
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 10:31 AM
Mar 2016

Is if the koch bros and other steal it from Trump in the smoke filled back rooms of the thug convention and give it to him.

That will be the start of an all out republican party civil war and an absolute cakewalk into the White House for Hillary!

I am hoping and praying that your scenario becomes reality!

Response to kristopher (Original post)

EndElectoral

(4,213 posts)
128. He is the most dangerous candidate the GOP could put out there, because he most likely takes Ohio
Mon Mar 21, 2016, 07:16 PM
Mar 2016

which is a critical swing state.

tokenlib

(4,186 posts)
130. No! Kasich is like Snyder from MI (before Flint)
Mon Mar 21, 2016, 07:19 PM
Mar 2016

He has the appearance of a personable moderate who will allow the GOP crazies to lay waste to the landscape and cut your throat. They both get votes from people who should know better. Kasich should not be discounted.

rbrnmw

(7,160 posts)
138. yes all that Hillary needs to do is check out a few things
Mon Mar 21, 2016, 07:34 PM
Mar 2016

closed all PP's in the state. Fracking is everywhere in Ohio. Balanced Ohio budget by kicking it down to the local level, therefore poorer communities don't have ways to pay Fire, Police, and EMT's, streets don't get repaired, Ohio is a mess.

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