2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie now leads Hillary in ALL polls against Republicans running for President
Monday, March 21
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton CNN/ORC Clinton 53, Trump 41 Clinton +12
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders CNN/ORC Sanders 58, Trump 38 Sanders +20
General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton CNN/ORC Clinton 48, Cruz 48 Tie
General Election: Cruz vs. Sanders CNN/ORC Sanders 55, Cruz 42 Sanders +13
General Election: Kasich vs. Clinton CNN/ORC Kasich 51, Clinton 45 Kasich +6
General Election: Kasich vs. Sanders CNN/ORC Sanders 51, Kasich 45 Sanders +6
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton CBS News/NY Times Clinton 50, Trump 40 Clinton +10
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders CBS News/NY Times Sanders 53, Trump 38 Sanders +15
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
oldandhappy
(6,719 posts)amborin
(16,631 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)instead of just want THEIR candidate (to lose).
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)imagine2015
(2,054 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)I say people who wrap themselves in the flag con constitution, usually also wrap themselves in the Bible and don't seem to know what they actually MEAN.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)anotherproletariat
(1,446 posts)Assuming he's the nominee.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)whose unfavorables are even higher than Trumps, and whose facing a possible criminal indictment. Yea, great plan.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Might want to do your research.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Cheers.
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)Trump 24/7 even on Hillary shilling MSNBC
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Try something new.
noiretextatique
(27,275 posts)Neither do youth. She can't even fill a 1200 seat auditorium. And she mighy be indicted. Worst candidate ever.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)The voters are voting for Hillary over Sanders. And primary electorates are different from the general electorate. I suggest you read those polls again.
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)lunamagica
(9,967 posts)MADem
(135,425 posts)Damn, they try so hard to throw the FUD around, though...
Jester Messiah
(4,711 posts)But hey, go ahead and insist on her anyway. Because that makes so much sense.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Jester Messiah
(4,711 posts)Well, that's not fair. I do have lots of faith in Hillary. Faith that she'll be a corporate tool, warmonger, and general sleaze-bucket.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Cheers!
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)so we can be sure to win the GE.
I wonder how many were raised in states that had dropped 'critical thinking' out of the school curriculum like Texas wanted to do?
It is obvious to me something is missing in their logical thinking apparatus.
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)They mean absolutely nothing at this point.
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)the stuff on which you make INFORMED decisions.
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)You can be informed about GE match ups until all the elements are in place. At this stage it is just noise and clickbait.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)...but the polls have been very consistent. Bernie has a massively larger margin than Hillary, in any head to head matchup for the GE. I think we need all the margin we can get to allow for the unpredictablility between now and November. I would take a +20 safety margin over +12 any day! And given that we know Donald Dump is going to whack Hillary (already is) on her mounting legal/ethical problems, her margin is sure to erode quickly.
And what if the Repugs manage to dump the Donald? Bernie is the only one who could defeat Cruz or Kasich.
So yeah, noise, long time til election. That's exactly why we need to start with the biggest possible safety margin.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Got it!
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)GE polls this far out indicate pretty much nothing.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)If Bernie wins, everyone will know. Just watch the polls then.
(Yes, I came back and saw it.)
riderinthestorm
(23,272 posts)But not for the reason you think...
Edited to add that if even you, an ardent Hillary supporter couldn't remember it correctly without a gentle prod, then I'm thinking its power to hurt Bernie isn't as great as you think .
noiretextatique
(27,275 posts)Including a possible indictment. I hope it happens just to see how it would be spun here.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Last edited Tue Mar 22, 2016, 02:17 PM - Edit history (1)
What is your political orientation, may I ask? Who do you expect to vote for in November?
As for how I would "spin" it, I would be numb with shock and and then outraged enough to kill -- above all at the FBI and Justice Department.
Can you begin to understand what an enormous betrayal of democracy an indictment at this stage would be?
What a betrayal of the rights of all 200 million American citizens eligible to vote it would be to take out a leading candidate for president after the election process had already begun? After millions -- in both parties -- had already made their choices, whole states committed, based on scenarios that were completely wiped out?
That staggering contempt for the American people and our democratic process means it would really be time to grab the torches and head for Washington. Heads might not roll literally, but they would roll.
In any case, this is why I know your...unfortunate (so many other words that leap to mind would get this "hidden" hopes and dreams are destined to go unfulfilled. Bless your heart, as we say here in the South.
noiretextatique
(27,275 posts)Since she is under investigation. And no, I am not taking any loyalty oaths. And yes, it would be fascinating to see how an indictment...an accusation of breaking the law...would be spun by Hillary supporters who have no problem with her support of fracking, regime change, Wall Street, and Israel extremists . I think the future would be a lot brighter with Bernie Sanders in the White House.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Question to me is, can new ideas penetrate? If you feel like it, read my post and think about it. I wasn't talking about Hillary, but democracy.
Don't answer, please. Just think.
merbex
(3,123 posts)Having a private server in violation of an Executive Order is not democracy in my view.
Whether an indictment is handed down will be up to a Grand Jury or a Prosecutor after evidence has been put forth that a conviction could be obtained.
Whether a jury will find a person guilty of that, is up to a jury.
Timing is simply how things have fallen since the information came out that there was a private server.
I have thought about it.
I am sick about it.
All Democrats should be aware of the consequences.
They aren't pretty.
Came back in case you are really sick over it. Take care of yourself. That's our first duty to our nation, after all.
noiretextatique
(27,275 posts)And possible indictmeny. Then there is the Iraq vote. Sierra Blanca went nowhere, btw.
Faux pas
(14,681 posts)Land of Enchantment
(1,217 posts)Bernie pointed this out to Chris Hayes and Anderson Cooper last night to stony silence.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Dem2
(8,168 posts)It's good to know that if he wins the primary he'll have a good chance and being elected in the fall.
LexVegas
(6,068 posts)lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)People voting for Bernie because they feel sorry for him?
LexVegas
(6,068 posts)lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)LexVegas
(6,068 posts)lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)'Cause that's why I'm posting in this thread.
Welcome aboard!!
cosmicone
(11,014 posts)still_one
(92,233 posts)Hillary and some Republican, selected the Republican over Hillary. The vast majority of Hillary supporters have said they will vote for whoever the Democratic nominee is. Not so with some of the Sanders supporters, especially looking at some of the threads on DU
I would also like to point out that national polls mean very little since States determine winners, not national polls
Herman4747
(1,825 posts)Maybe this could help explain it:
Yep, when it comes to honesty & sincerity, not much of a gap between them!
still_one
(92,233 posts)pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)...despite massive polling evidence to the contrary. But they will take any Dem.
Bernie supporters want more than a DINO, and may not bother to vote for lack of change.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)RAFisher
(466 posts)National polls are only meaningless if you don't think there is a corelation between popular vote and electoral votes. I'd say there is a correlation. 1824, 1876, 1888, and 2000 are the only years where the winner of the popular vote didn't the electoral college.
still_one
(92,233 posts)populous states. Those national polls ambiguous about that, and the MOE. Here is an example:
"
This poll was conducted by telephone March 17-20, 2016 among a random sample of 1,252 adults nationwide, including 1,058 registered voters. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News and the New York Times by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.
The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers.
The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables.
The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly.
The margin of error for the sample of 388 Democratic primary voters is six percentage points.
This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls."
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hillary-clinton-leads-bernie-sanders-in-national-cbsnyt-poll/
You missed my point entirely. National polls are meaningless, unless more sampling is done in the more populous state then in the smaller states, and in addition, that polling in the populous states has to be in a representative sample, and that is not made clear in most of the national polls conducted.
MariaThinks
(2,495 posts)superdelegates are factored in?
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Can we please dispose of that now? Bernie has been consistently more electable for quite a while now, if you bother to look at the polls.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)he doesn't like, he just talks about the issues.
But today is the day.
Loudestlib
(980 posts)pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)for them it's "Hillary has more votes among Democrats so she'll win the GE"
They don't seem to be very good with NUMBERS. . . Democrats are ONLY about 30% of the voters, Independents are 42% and Bernie kills among them.
"Democrats are ONLY about 30%"
Our numbers are steadily declining. I think that people feel like the old guard in the DNC has amassed too much influence and control. It bothers anyone not comfortable with authoritarianism. With the way the DNC chair has been behaving I expect our numbers to drop after this election.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)Some folks here seem to be under delusions to the contrary.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)But she's far more vulnerable on substantive issues such as legal trouble and war-mongering.
Bernie starts with a massive margin, and doesn't have the baggage. Yeah "Socialist" - that will annoy the McCarthy-era voters. If any are still alive these days. But he wears the badge with honor - people who like strong leaders will appreciate that.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I don't see him getting a lot of non-white voters
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)collected from ACTUAL VOTERS.
Those 2 things are different.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)The OP shows Hillary Clinton defeating Trump soundly in a general election.
Also, Trump has done very poorly with non-white voters in the Republican primary (not that there is a huge sample size there) and Hillary has done very well with non-white voters in the Democratic primary (with a much larger sample size).
jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)Middle school poll: Bass 52, Catfish 48
Middle school poll: Bass 57, Bluegill 43
... sorry I thought we were just posting results of polls that had zero practical importance.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Remember what happened after 2000 and 2004? Bad things for America and the world.
jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)Its the matchup polls in March which are meaningless.
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)imagine2015
(2,054 posts)jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)Mean nothing until the candidates are chosen and vetted regardless of who is leading.
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)JimDandy
(7,318 posts)If she becomes the nominee, I'm not going to forgive anyone who voted for her. Before the last decade, I would have thought anyone who made such a statement as that was being melodramatic. It is now abundantly clear that mine is now a reasonable pronouncement.
VulgarPoet
(2,872 posts)And I'm petty enough to say "I told you so". But what do I know, I'm just one of the pawns that Hillary would throw away in an illegal "intervention".
MADem
(135,425 posts)And for the "Americans Abroad" group:
JimDandy
21. We are doomed if Hillary is the nominee.
View profile
If she becomes the nominee, I'm not going to forgive anyone who voted for her. Before the last decade, I would have thought anyone who made such a statement as that was being melodramatic. It is now abundantly clear that mine is now a reasonable pronouncement.
Your pronouncement is UNREASONABLE, unless your candidate, who has called Clinton his friend for 25 years, is a liar (and I don't think he is a liar). He took money from the Mistress of DOOOOOOOM to secure his Senate seat, and he accepted help from her friends, too.
Disappointment is natural, as is grief, anger, bargaining, and even threats of recriminations, but eventually you'll come to understand that even the Democrat you don't happen to prefer is better than ANY Republican.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Thanks for posting; I was just about to post the same thing.
Bernie has (for at least a month) been far stronger than Hillary in any one-on-one matchup.
Can we please drop the false meme that "Hillary is more electable" ?
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Good thing for Hillary, Dems don't believe in reading polls.
MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)Newkularblue
(130 posts)But you can be sure Republicans are.
Do you really think they'll put up the only 'Republican' Hillary polls better against unless they're fine with her winning?
MADem
(135,425 posts)I stopped scrolling after I hit this bit....
New York: Cruz vs. Clinton Emerson Clinton 61, Cruz 30 Clinton +31
New York: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Sanders 53, Trump 36 Sanders +17
I learned in math class that 19 was bigger than 17....
Also--your "headline" appears nowhere at that link.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)MADem
(135,425 posts)Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)How does swingstate Louisiana sound to you?
artyteacher
(598 posts)Lil Missy
(17,865 posts)imagine2015
(2,054 posts)LOL
Well, Hillary might be able to bark louder!
Well, I couldn't resist .... you set me up!
Lil Missy
(17,865 posts)pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)like you keep saying Hillary beats Bernie in the primary (which means NOTHING about the GE), but just so you know, your dog, and his a*hole can't vote in the GE.
Only Democrats, which are ONLY 30% of the voters ( Bernie does good with them), but UNLIKE Hillary Bernie does VERY WELL with the other 70% of Independents and Republicans, and Hillary does not. . . and that other 70% actually does vote in the GE.
noiretextatique
(27,275 posts)But it cannot be ignored.
WhiteTara
(29,718 posts)imagine2015
(2,054 posts)WhiteTara
(29,718 posts)no revolution here.
Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)Too bad the Clinton people will lie to themselves about this.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)TheDormouse
(1,168 posts)Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)Though, I though Hillary's 20 point lead a week before Michigan would have been enough to show the Berniebots that a poll 6 months out is utterly worthless.