Nate Silver: Sanders will probably gain net delegates tonight

[Recursion]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-22-primaries-arizona-utah-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-24708921

It looks as though Sanders has a good shot to get more delegates than Clinton tonight.

Clinton is winning Arizona by 22 percentage points right now, which would translate to a net gain of about 16 pledged delegates on Sanders. And Arizona has more pledged delegates than Utah and Idaho combined. However, Sanders could net more delegates on the night if he wins Utah and Idaho by more than about 30 percentage points. Based on the results we’ve seen so far, he could fairly easily do that.

He's looking set to sweep both UT and ID, while Clinton "merely" landslides AZ.

[dchill]

1. Finally, some good news.

Arizona is still screwed up, though.

[DemocraticWing]

2. She's going to win AZ, but the margin counts.

The counting appears to be something of a mess, but if he can get closer than 60-40 (as of this post it's 59-38) then her delegate net from AZ starts shrinking there.

ID and UT are BIG wins! Those are what we need.

[Recursion]

3. Yep. Those thrashings in ID and UT are going to hurt Clinton

And I would expect a repeat this weekend in WA (with more delegates than AZ) and AK. HI I honestly can't even remotely pretend to say anything about.

[ebayfool]

4. Ha! I volunteer to be an election observer in HI ...

where do I pick up the flight tickets?

[Recursion]

5. Heh. Side story...

My wife is in the State Department, so we spend a lot of our lives overseas. The State Department will pay to fly you to your "home of record" (which is whatever you tell State it is) between every tour for a month-long home leave.

Unsurprisingly, the most common home of record for Foreign Service Officers is Hawaii...

[ebayfool]

9. LOL! Gotta take the benefits where you find 'em, I say!

Bet I could find a sitter for the chickens. Might not have a job when I got back, but dayum it would be worth it!

I shall contemplate it in my dreams tonight.

[MADem]

6. It's not enough, though. nt

[Recursion]

7. It means the 58% he needed yesterday goes down to 57% or so

And it's pretty clearly going to go down even more after this weekend.

Still a longshot, mind you, but if I were investing here I'd hedge, personally.

[MADem]

10. He needs "blowouts" the rest of the way.

I just don't see that happening. 'good weekend ahead' notwithstanding.

Not all the news is good for Sanders, however. He was expected to win more delegates on the evening based on our demographic targets — and more importantly, he’s far enough behind Clinton that he needs to not just meet but blow out his delegate targets the rest of the way to have a shot at eventually catching Clinton. Alaska, Hawaii and Washington will vote on Saturday, states where we expect Sanders to perform well.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-22-primaries-arizona-utah-presidential-election-2016/

[MADem]

11. He needs "blowouts" the rest of the way.

I just don't see that happening. 'good weekend ahead' notwithstanding.

Not all the news is good for Sanders, however. He was expected to win more delegates on the evening based on our demographic targets — and more importantly, he’s far enough behind Clinton that he needs to not just meet but blow out his delegate targets the rest of the way to have a shot at eventually catching Clinton. Alaska, Hawaii and Washington will vote on Saturday, states where we expect Sanders to perform well.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-22-primaries-arizona-utah-presidential-election-2016/

[elleng]

8. Thanks.