2016 Postmortem

Chichiri

(4,667 posts) Wed Mar 23, 2016, 08:33 AM Mar 2016

Bernie's job has gotten harder.

As of right now, Bernie has 57 delegates from yesterday, and Hillary has 51, with 19 still unallocated. Bernie is now 1,114 delegates short, or 58.3% of all remaining delegates.

If we distribute unallocateds evenly -- well, let's give 10 to Bernie so that we don't have to chop some poor delegate in half -- he needs 1,104 delegates, but he is still 58.3% of remaining delegates short (actually the number went up a bit, but it rounds to the same figure).

Yesterday morning, Bernie needed 58.0%.

The good news (for Bernie) is this coming Saturday, which we might as well go ahead and call Bernie Saturday. 141 delegates. If Bernie wins three-quarters of them, as he may very well do, his percentage goes all the way down to 56.9%.

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Bernie's job has gotten harder. (Original Post) Chichiri Mar 2016 OP

Yeah so much harder than when he was known by about 15 percent of the electorate Armstead Mar 2016 #1

I don't know why people keep bringing that up. Chichiri Mar 2016 #2

Armstead

(47,803 posts)

1. Yeah so much harder than when he was known by about 15 percent of the electorate

Reply to Chichiri (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 08:39 AM

Mar 2016

and Clinton had like 85 percent recognition and was assumed to be able to do an easy trot to the nomination

Chichiri

(4,667 posts)

2. I don't know why people keep bringing that up.

Reply to Armstead (Reply #1)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 09:43 AM

Mar 2016

If it was linear, he'd be at something like 160% by now. You know darn well it's tapered off.

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