New California Poll--HRC up 48-41

[book_worm]

Going to be close in California, but no blow-out for either candidate.

White voters favor Bernie 46-41
Latino voters favor HRC 58-35

18-44 age group favors Bernie 63-22
45 and up favor HRC 63-27

Women favor HRC 54-35
Men favor Bernie 48-39

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_democratic_presidential_primary-5321.html

[brooklynite]

1. Unfortnately, a blowout is what Sanders needs

[book_worm]

2. True--unlike the GOP race California is not a "winner take all primary"

but is proportional.

[Garrett78]

8. None of the Democratic primaries/caucuses are WTA.

Thus we know what Sanders needs to average over the remainder of the campaign, 58% or so. But he can top 58% in all sorts of states like he did in Idaho and Utah, and it won't matter. Because Clinton does better in delegate-rich states that tend to be more diverse. That pattern won't suddenly get flipped upside down.

[NurseJackie]

3. No cigar for Bernie.

[Hortensis]

4. Unfortunately, polls this far out aren't worth squat.

Numbers are, though. Hillary could coast from here on in, with no big wins, and still win.

Not that any candidate would at this point, of course. NY is an almost certain lock for her, but she's just brought on a former NY State aide to run her primary campaign there, they're activating her old Senate campaign volunteer networks, etc., etc., etc.

[Stallion]

5. Most of the Remaining Votes Sanders Needs are Going to be lost in New York and California

any result below 60% will make the mountain higher. To a large extent-failure to win big in New York or California makes the other states window dressing

[Hortensis]

13. Umhm. Simple truth. I'm farther left than Hillary,

Stallion, and if I thought Bernie could both run the nation as competently as her and enact more far-reaching changes, I'd be rooting for him and feeling bad. But I don't. They're both puling the same direction and would work within the same realities.

[DCBob]

6. The Bernie campaign's "big comeback scenario" just hit a solid wall of reality.

They were hoping for a huge landslide win and gain hundreds of delegates to close the gap. Not gonna happen.

[Jitter65]

7. Yep!! CA is going to be close. nt

[workinclasszero]

9. No California blow out for Bernie

Hillary is gonna be a great President!

[LexVegas]

10. "White voters favor Bernie 46-41 ". There's your movement. nt

[basselope]

11. Open Primary.. means their numbers are way off

Bernie will carry Cali by 10+ without much issue.

[Betty Karlson]

15. That has been the usual pattern with open primaries so far...

[Mother Of Four]

12. From the page of the most recent poll

Methodology Note:
Findings are based on a survey of 1,710 California adult residents, with 50 percent interviewed on landline telephones (852 interviews) and 50 percent
interviewed on cell phones (858 interviews). Interviews took an average of 20 minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and
weekday nights March 6–15, 2016.

-------
Any poll that uses 50 percent landlines isn't going to be remotely accurate.

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/Crosstabs_LikelyVoters0316.pdf

[Betty Karlson]

16. And probably tilted in favour of Clinton, given her strong numbers among seniors.

[Yavin4]

14. By June 5th, Hillary will only need about 150 or so delegates to put her over the top

In fact, Bernie could win 100% of the CA vote, and she will still take the nomination.

[ebayfool]

17. Good! He's actually coming up in the CA polls. And our primary date is a ways off ...

so plenty of time to continue that upward climb. I'm encouraged by this!