Is President Obama going to get a debate bounce? Gallup shows Obama the winner 51 to 38.

[ProSense]

<...>

It is too early to tell what impact the second debate will have on voters. Its impact may also be difficult to assess given that the third debate is taking place just six days after the second.

Historically, debates typically do not change voting preferences to a great degree. Even after Romney's strong performance in the first debate, his standing in Gallup Daily election tracking improved only slightly in the first several days of interviewing following the debate.

Nevertheless, Monday's final presidential debate is the last major scheduled event in the 2012 election campaign, so the status of the race after it takes place will give a strong indication of what the outcome of the election might be.

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http://www.gallup.com/poll/158237/obama-judged-winner-second-debate.aspx

What caused Romney to surge to a 7-point lead a day after the second debate?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Maybe Gallup Is Coming Up With An Explanation For When Their Model Shifts To Obama

Or maybe not.

[JuveDem]

2. The sample size was heavily skewed

towards the south. Plus the 65+ age group was the highest. I expect Gallup to slowly start readjusting as they correct their sampling.

[Astazia]

3. Gallup is one of the least trustworthy polling according to progressives.

The POTUS may get a bounce
but I wouldn't trust Gallup.

[BlueDemKev]

4. Very Disturbing.

If these Gallup surveys are even somewhat accurate, it means that most people believe Obama "won" the second debate, but they've already decided they're voting for Romney.

[ProSense]

6. Well, Gallup has to

try to justify why the hell it's the only national poll showing Romney with a lead.

Obama may or may not get a bounce because of the third debate, but Romney's bounce is lasting, growing and permanent.

[Blaukraut]

5. He won't get one, and Romney didn't get one either

Romney got a bullshit fly by night poll bounce, and republicans finally admitting to pollsters they'll vote for him. Obama will probably get 1 to 2% more - basically the last stragglers coming home.

[ProSense]

7. At this point,

I'm laughing at all of them. It's like data for morons.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=157405

They should go ahead and include the question: Do you believe Republicans are trying to suppress the vote? Steal the election?

[Blaukraut]

8. no kidding, but here's the thing

People believe what they want to believe, and no evidence to the contrary will convince them. Polls should be outlawed, imo.

[amborin]

9. N.S. discussed this in depth. Plus, Gallop's internals showed O ahead in all areas except the south

Romney was 22% ahead in the south, O ahead all other areas. Voila, made it look as though R was ahead overall, which he was not.

[imgbitepolitic]

10. dont forget

they switched to LV from RV model right when debate 1 occured. Romey is only +1 in the RV tally i think.

[politicman]

11. Gallup should be held accountable for botched numbers at the moment

I have said this before, Gallups likely voter model is so far off from everyone else pollling that it raises some eyebrows.

Out of all the national polling being done, Gallup is the only one which shows a big lead for Romney, every other poll shows a tied race or Obama leading.

Now, is Gallup right OR are the rest of the polling right?

If I had to choose, I would say that Gallup's numbers will come back down to earth and join the rest of the pollsters as election date nears.

The thing is that, a few days before election day, Gallup will show a tied race OR Obama leading and then everyone will forget how Gallup botched their numbers at the moment, AND nothing will be made of it.

The thing is that Gallup SHOULD be held reponsible for their botching of the numbers right now as it is being used to portray a good race for Romney by the right-wingers who hope to quell any Democratic enthusiasm by using these botched numbers.