Princeton Election Consortium 8pm update: Obama 299 EV Romney 239. Meta Margin Obama 2.28%

[Blaukraut]

Notice the red zone. Highest Obama EV probability. Sam Wang has Obama's Meta Margin climbing every update. Sam has said that he won't "get out of bed" for a MM over 1%. I really urge you guys to check out the site and see his method. He said in an NPR interview today that Obama has a 9 to 1 chance to win.




http://election.princeton.edu/

On edit: PEC predicted 08 within 1 electoral vote, btw

[regnaD kciN]

1. Interesting that, in the final daily update...

...the EV total for both candidates stayed the same, but Obama's meta-margin had a decent uptick.

[Blaukraut]

3. I think the FOX Ohio poll pushed up Obama's lead percentage for that sate, which would raise the MM

I think Sam had OH at around 1.5 % before the update or something to that effect.

[RedSpartan]

2. Sam Wang is better than Nate Silver, IMO.

His site helps me sleep at night.

[falcon97]

4. Why?

Just curious. I think Nate attempts to get it right by including factors outside of polling. Plus, he's worked for Baseball Prospectus!

[RedSpartan]

5. Because he was more accurate than Nate in 2008.

I also like Nate including factors outide of polling, though. I think they are both top-notch, but historical accuracy so far, I think, favors
Wang.