Gravis Marketing really not good at making up poll numbers.

[Jennicut]

2012 General Election: Romney vs. Obama
Asked of 805 likely voters
Barack Obama 44%
Mitt Romney 46%
Undecided 10%

Obama Job Approval
Asked of 805 likely voters
Approve 39%
Disapprove 49%
Undecided 12%


Undecided at 10%? 39% approval Ha ha. They also said the party ID was plus 8 D (with only 39% approval) and that 100% of the people they asked were registered to vote. All 100%.

http://www.gravispolls.com/2012/10/national-presidential-pollromney-46.html


I cannot wait for some major media figure to take this crappy fake polling company down. Please, someone. Who outed Research 2000 and Strategic Vision? We need them.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Isn't The Number Of People Registered To Vote Around 70%?

.

[Jennicut]

3. I think so.

This poll is just hilarious. Whoever made it up really does not know what current polling trends are right now. When was the last time President Obama had 39% as an approval rating? I don't think he ever has.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. The Chances Of Randomly Polling 800 People And Finding They Are All Registered To Vote

Are about 55,000,000,000,000 to 1.

[woolldog]

4. who says they pulled them randomly?

Why wouldn't they just use voter reg lists?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. A Gravis And Gallup Fan, Who Would Have Thunk

Can I have three guesses who your favorite talk show host is.

I think he is from Cape Girardeau, Missouri.

Am I warm?

[woolldog]

6. I dont put any stock in gravis polls.

But that doesn't mean your point is valid.

[Jennicut]

8. All of the numbers in this poll, taken together

lead me to ask is this poll and polling firm for real?
It is just too obvious. 100% registered? 39% approval with a D sample of plus 8? Plus fellow DUer grantcart's great uncovering of Doug Kaplan and Gravis: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021579317

[woolldog]

9. Again, how do you know they're not working off voter reg lists?

And where are you even getting this 100% registered voter thing?

How do you know that the 805 likely voters they include in their pool of respondents were the *only* ones contacted? In other words, if I were conducting a poll and called 1200 RV and, through the use of a LV screen narrowed the pool to 805 LV and reported the responses of the 805 does that mean I only contacted 805 people?

I'm not saying they're not shady. But I don't think what you're pointing out shows they are.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Your Calcuations Are Impossible

They said 93% of their respondents, 100% of whom are registered are likely voters.

[woolldog]

14. I'm not making any calculations

I was throwing out an example to illustrate my point.

They're a crappy pollster so it's not worth arguing over.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Here's Obama's Approval Ratings Going Back To His Inauguration

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html#polls

I don't think anybody found approval ratings as low as your boy, Gravis.

[woolldog]

15. really?

So b/c I rebut your stupid point about only registered voters being contacted Gravis is now "my boy"?

He's obviously using voters reg lists. Your point is dumb. Move on.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Your Boy Doesn't Release His Methodology

So basically all you have is an assertion in search of evidence.

Move on.

[woolldog]

17. I entered this thread

asking how do you know he's not using voter reg lists? You haven't answered the question and instead have resorted to personal attacks. Sad.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. I Don't Know. His Methodology Is Quite Opaque,Ergo:

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 805 likely voters nationwide October 18, 2012.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. I'll Play Some More

Let's assume for the sake of discussion he is operating from registered voting lists.Given that we know that:

Of the 185,445,103 listed registration records in the United States, 16,130,325 are
estimated to be invalid.
Aside from invalid records, in the typical state 1 in 65 records is duplicative, meaning
that the same registrant is listed multiple times.
1 in 25 records contains a mailing address that is likely to be undeliverable because of
a typo, a street that no longer exists, or poor penmanship on registration applications.
In the typical state, 1 in 40 counted votes in the 2008 general election cannot be
matched to a registrant listed as having voted.
1 in 100 listed registrants is likely to be deceased.
1 in 7 records does not have a listed birthdate, and for many voters who do have a
listed birthdate, the date entered is inaccurate.
1 in 25 registration records is estimated to be deadwood, because of registrants who
have not voted in a very long time, have moved elsewhere and re-registered, or are
thought to be deceased.
1 in 60 registrants do not have a date of registration associated with their record, and
and implausibly large number of registrants who do have a registration date (1 in 50)
are listed as registering on January 1st.

How is it possible that every voter contacted by Gravis is registered to vote?

[woolldog]

7. Also, simply because they reported

the question was asked of 805 likely voters doesn't mean that they only contacted 805 voters.

[politicman]

10. Gravis is definitely not a good polling firm

Gravis definitely makes up numbers.

This poll is one example as there is no possible way that Obama could have a 39% Approval rating.

When you see those approval numbers you should automatically dismiss the rest of the poll without looking at the rest of the numbers because its just not believable.

Another Gravis poll earlier this month in a important swing state, showed Romney recieving 40+ percent of the black vote, seriously the black vote.



Now no serious polling firm would ever release numbers like those approval numbers or the eralier poll that showed the black vote numbers unless it was making them up.

The worrying thing is that Nate Silver uses them in his forecasts and actually gives them good weighting.

[last_texas_dem]

11. The head-to-head match-up seems believable, but the approval/disapproval seem completely off.

Hell, even the ridiculous Gallup national poll that has Romney appearing to be headed for a landslide had the somewhat contradictory result of pegging Obama's approval at 50%.

[iloveObama12]

18. I Believe Karl Rove Got These Boys Doing What They Do

this dude a big time political gop hit man