No Post-Debate Bounce?

[BlueDemKev]

How the hell is it that Obama has gotten virtually no bounce from the second debate? He was the clear winner and yet Romney's surge has not subsided. Even on Hardball tonight, Chris Matthews and his two guests seemed to be saying that things are falling into place for Romney.

I never expected Obama to win in a landslide--even in late September, when things were going really well, I didn't expect we'd do nearly as well as we did in 2008. Hard to believe that just one debate (the first one) could completely change everything.

While I admit I'm a political junkie, the 2012 election is very personal for me as I am an adult with a pre-existing condition who had a very difficult time obtaining individual insurance coverage for myself last year when my COBRA period was expiring. I was able to get a policy, thank God, but I worry what would happen if I were to become "too sick" down the road and my coverage gets cancelled. I also worry about my two young children and wonder if they will be forced into bankruptcy at some point in their adult lives because they're denied insurance coverage for some assinine reason.

[OKNancy]

1. You can't discount the obscene amounts of money that Romney and his

buddies are spending.

[tavernier]

37. I'm afraid you're right...

Here in Florida there is an ad on every twenty seconds for robme. I'm afraid it really does have a hypnotizing effect on some people. So once again, the supreme court will choose the president... this time by allowing the super pacs to achieve mind control over the masses.

[ProSense]

2. Here's a good question

What is Chuck Todd Smoking?
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/19/1147262/-What-is-Chuck-Todd-Smoking

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. No Bounce????

He went from being down 2.7% to being up .01 in the RCP average:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/


Out of the eight or so currently released national polls he's leading or tied in seven of them.

[barnabas63]

4. Just keep watching....

The polls are a bit sketchy, but one showed Obama up 3 points in NC today....people are coming home.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

5. It's bullshit

Guys like Chuck Fraud are like the Art Howe character in "Moneyball". They don't want to listen to the guys like Silver and Wang who say the polls show otherwise and that Obama is in decent, though not great position.

[BlueDemKev]

6. Who are Silver and Wang? (Pardon my ignorance)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Respectfully, For A Self Professed Political Junkie It Would Behoove You To Google Them And Find Out

.

[BlueDemKev]

11. You've got a point...

As Dubya would say, "gotta do the google."

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Sorry For The Snark But Obama Has Got A Lil Bounce

He's moved up about three points in the national horse race.

[BlueDemKev]

18. What's up with Iowa Polls??

NBC/WSJ has Obama leading there by 8 points yesterday, then today PPP (a Democratic poll) has Romney up by 1 point? Something's screwy here.

[unc70]

22. No cell phones

[BlueDemKev]

23. Which of those 2 polls only call landlines?

NBC/WSJ or PPP?

[BraKez2]

25. PPP

[RedSpartan]

12. Nate Silver of 538 at the NYT and Sam Wang of Princeton University

They are top-notch (I think Wang is the best):

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

http://election.princeton.edu/

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

14. Follow the links provided below

And breathe.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

http://election.princeton.edu/

[BlueDemKev]

30. Sam Wang's Specialty is Molecular Biology & Neuroscience

Wang is a professor of Mol. Biology & Neuroscience...how much would he know about analyzing political races? I follow the NYT-538 on a daily basis (I'd forgotten the guy who runs it is named Silver).

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

33. From his site....

Prof. Sam Wang‘s academic specialties are biophysics and neuroscience. In these fields he uses probability and statistics to analyze complex experimental data, and has published many papers using these approaches. He is also the author of Welcome To Your Brain, a popular book about his field.

[bigdarryl]

7. It took a week for the first debate to show polling drop

[Dawson Leery]

9. Correct.

[Ebadlun]

21. This is true

But it would seem to indicate that the Biden bounce was limited.

Shame, as it was a bravura performance that should have shown Ryan up for the lying little shit that he is, once and for all. But what can you do?

[Proud Liberal Dem]

10. Considering how Romney "winning" the first debate was like THE MOST IMPORTANT THING EVER!!!!!

I would be shocked if the second debate doesn't help President Obama- unless, of course, the so-called "liberal media" just doesn't want President Obama to win...............????

BTW where is all of this "surge" for Romney? I live here in Indiana and I barely see any Romney/Ryan signs, bumper stickers and almost nobody I know of is eager to vote for them. Indiana will probably be going "red" this year, true, but nobody seems all that enthusiastic about the Mittster.

[Jennicut]

13. There has been movement toward Obama by all the tracking polls in the last day.

Even Gallup had Romney minus one today and that poll is a hot mess.
I am not sure what some people expect. Obama up by 5? The race is not going to happen like that. It will remain close but Obama has helped himself with the second debate.
You were watching Chuck Todd and Jonathan Martin. Chuck Todd is infamous here as a pusher for Republicans. Just ignore him. We all do.

[BlueDemKev]

17. Yeah, I watched Hardball tonight...

...and probably won't again until after Nov. 6. Obama definitely helped his cause in the 2nd debate, my concern is will it be enough? Has Romney's momentum finally leveled off? I'm not interested in winning by a big margin, all I want is to get at least 270 electoral votes and keep the White House. I must confess, however, that I did expect Obama to be leading by about 5-7 points after his kick-ass performance in last Tuesday's debate.

[Jennicut]

20. You need to look at the state polling.

Ohio looks solid for Obama as does Wisconsin and Nevada. That would be all we would need for an electoral win. Would be nice to get some padding with IA, CO, VA or NH.

Polls don't show shifts by 5 to 7 points in a matter of three days, not in a close election like this. Romney did not have that either. Polling is always about a day behind anyway. Expect a one to two point bounce, good enough to get Obama higher in the states he needs.

[BlueDemKev]

31. Thanks, Jenn.

You've helped put this into a better focus for me. I'm just a little surprised as to why conservative writers are already saying that Romney's got this wrapped up and Obama's team is preparing for defeat, etc.

[flamingdem]

16. Romney is paying for "fake momentum"

I can't tell you all the mechanisms but something stinks

[wisteria]

26. Yes, only a unproven therory, but it looks like they are trying to buy momentum.

There are undecided and low info voters that will vote for the guy they think is winning.

[grok]

19. Problem is Obama was EXPECTED to do better

The entire country knew he could so there was no surprise he did.

That's not the case with Romney in the first. Previously he was successfully portrayed by our side as a total idiot, a doctrinaire right wing zealot who couldn't talk his way out of a paper bag, a man who could never take command of any situation. Never expected to even come close to compete with Obama on an even level. A wallflower.

[zbdent]

24. One factor is the pre-details CHEERLEADING BY THE "LIBERALLY-BIASED MEDIA"

that Sh*itt Romney enjoyed ... where the "lbm" blasted joyously that Romney won the first debate ... long before someone took off the lampshade and looked at WHAT MITT ACTUALLY SAID and started (quietly) reporting that Mitt won, but lied his magic underpants off ...

And when Obama came roaring back, causing Mitt to look like he was wishing he was the deer in headlights?

"Obama mustered a slim win ..."

[flamingdem]

27. Sadly it's true, and Romney enjoyed almost 2 weeks of MSM fawning

and many voters were only just tuning in during the last month..

Still I think the momentum is fake for the most part because there are some hinky polls that should have been discounted

[progressivebydesign]

34. I think that we're sometimes naive in all this, as if some in the MSM aren't on the take.

It happens, it's happening, and sometimes I think "oh, that can't really happen," but it does. There are, no doubt, MSM people who are benefitting financially for their allegiance to the Right. Whether it's donations or investments to side companies that the media person has, or a promise of a job, or just money... there is obviously some backroom deals doing on. Otherwise, why would so many in the MSM completely disregard the facts (I'm talking outside of Fox, who are paid to push lies.)

[zbdent]

35. "outside of Fox, who are paid to push lies" ...

those who won't take the bribes probably are reminded how they can be easily replaced by the next cute blonde ... male or female ...

Seems like "journalism school" now focuses on makeup tips instead of the 5 ws and an H.

[davidn3600]

28. Undecided voters finally made up their mind after the first debate?

Maybe there aren't anymore undecided voters left to get a bounce from.

I mean if someone is still undecided today, they are a moron.

[ProSense]

29. That's not it.

A few polls are showing big shifts from Obama to Romney, primarily among women.

Think about it. Mitt hasn't led the entire campaign. To justify a lead, Mitt had to make huge gains among women. The polls that show no such shift still have the President ahead.

[amborin]

32. N.S. wrote today that O's numbers have increased in most swing states. There is a bounce. n/t

[budkin]

36. It's still too soon.

Took at least a week for Romneys