Nate Silver has Obama at 67.9 & CNN says there is a bounce for Obama

[courseofhistory]

in the Midwest (didn't see any details).

[regnaD kciN]

1. Silver we already know about, but CNN reporting a bounce...

Has anyone looked out the window to see if they could spot a flock of hogs flying past?

[still_one]

2. Everything I have seen the swing states we need are moving into our favor. The noise you hear is

The media shrills

Filter that out

As long as we get the vote out, ideally, early voting, we win big

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the republicans call for taking away the vote to women, because that is why we will win big

[teabaggersarestupid]

3. What is the bounce

to which you are referring?

[still_one]

4. regardless, 67.9 or 70 we still win

[Ebadlun]

7. Two thirds of the time..

[woolldog]

5. Is CNN going to be releasing some polls soon?

What are they basing this bounce comment on?

[BraKez2]

6. that was my initial thought as well

[politicman]

8. state of race at the moment

I just ran my own electoral map after todays polling and found the following:


(keep in mind, I don't totally agree with the polls today as I need more evidence to back them up, but will be using them as a reference point)


Wisconsin - latest polling and RCP average shows Obama up by a few points.

Nevada - latest polling and RCP average shows Obama up by a few points.

Virginia - latest polling and RCP average shows a tied race (although Obama can afford to lose even though I think he has a good chance to win it)

Colarado - latest polling is all over the place, some show Obama leading, some show Romney leading.

Iowa - nearly all latest polling show Obama leading (except for latest PPP poll)

Florida - most latest polling show Romney leading (between 3-6 points)

Pensylvannia - every single poll released has shown Obama with some sort of lead

New Hampshire - most polling shows Obama leading (except latest PPP poll)

Ohio - every single latest poll shows Obama leading by 3-6 points

Michigan - Obama has never been behing in this state and will in my opinion DEFINITELY win it.



So, according to my analysis at this stage of the race

If Obama wins Ohio, Michigan, Pensylvannia - gives him 255 EV

if Romney wins Florida (he can also take NH) - gives him 239 EV


That leaves Colorado (9), Nevada (6), Iowa (6), Wisconsin (10), Virginia (13)

Obama needs 15 EV's from the above states (can get them in any combination)

I would think most likely scenario is Obama takes Wisconsin and Nevada OR Iowa.

But its still looking good in all of those states.

[BlueState]

10. That is great assessment of the current state of the race

If I were to make a bet I would say Wisconsin is a sure thing

Iowa and Nevada are both highly likely, winning at least one, I'd put that at about 99.9%.

The converse which your explanation well illustrates, is that despite all the noise about the post
first debate bounce for Romney, is that he has a much steeper hill to climb to 270 EVs.

[VirginiaTarheel]

9. Obama's Bounce: he built that!

[ProudProgressiveNow]

11. lol