Charlie Cook: internal polls show Obama at 290 EV

[geek tragedy]

http://cookpolitical.com/story/4849

Scroll to the bottom. It shows Battleground states with a range of "D/R Pollster Characterization" which he describes as "Characterizations are from private conversations between Charlie Cook and top Democratic and Republican pollsters and strategists."

According to his Democratic and Republican sources:

Pennsylvania: Obama up 7-9
Michigan: Obama up 7-8
Ohio: Obama up 4-7
Wisconsin: Obama up 3-7
Nevada: Obama up 3-6
New Hampshire: Obama up 2-5
Iowa: Obama down 1 to up 7 (odd range)
Colorado: Obama up 1-5

That gets us to 290 (284 if Iowa somehow falls to the low end of the range).

States on the verge:
Florida: Obama down 2 to up 1
Virginia: tie to Obama down 2
North Carolina: Obama down 1-2

Time to close the deal. We just need to avoid pulling a Valverde (Tigers fans would agree).

[Dawson Leery]

1. K/R

PA and MI are going for Obama. VA and NC as well as FL are certainly winnable.

[geek tragedy]

3. I want their spirits crushed early on election eve. nt

[CuriousAboutPolls]

13. I hear you!

I definitely am buying what your selling! Aaaaaah.....the thought just puts a huge smile on my face, as all the trolls here Florida, North Carolina, or Virginia swing to Obama early. Oh, and hearing Chuck Todd say "well, in Ohio, with only 97 percent of precincts reporting Romney appears to be down only 75,000 votes. This election could still easily swing Romney's way if he goes on to win Nevada, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Colorado, Pennsylvania and....and....and...."

[writes3000]

2. I really thank you for sharing this, G-T. Very cool.

[still_one]

4. Good report, and cook is reputable

[courseofhistory]

5. 2 thumbs up! n/t

[LisaL]

6. And if we GOTV, we could

get Florida, Virginia or NC too.

[geek tragedy]

7. Yup. We'll see how good the ground game is. nt

[Cosmocat]

19. I would REALLY like to see Florida

fall into the BO column.

Get the EV well into the 300s.

[hrmjustin]

9. REC and Kicked

[amborin]

10. yes! and GOTV

[ProudProgressiveNow]

11. GOTV!

[Jennicut]

12. Awesome.

Obama has a bigger playing field to get to 270 then Romney does. We don't need all of those swing states. Very interested in the NH #'s. Would love to see WMUR/UNH do another poll there soon. Iowa seems hard to gauge for some, I guess. NC may be closer then many presume.

[mzmolly]

14. Pretty much in line with Silver's predictions.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

I hope Cook and Nate Silver are correct. I want the President to win, and win soundly.

From PPP's twitter: https://twitter.com/ppppolls

Obama still holding Romney below a 20 point lead with whites nationally, at 57/39. He keeps that up, he wins:

[Maximumnegro]

15. Meh, other respected pollsters

have obama doing better than PPP's latest numbers. As long as he's got Ohio, Romney is toast.

[Surya Gayatri]

16. Only one major lesson can be drawn from this:

GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV!
GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV!
GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV!
GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV!
GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV!

[a kennedy]

20. Doing our part today...doorknocking in Winona MN for the 9:00 - Noon shift.

Just hope my knees hold up, but it's the least I can do.

[Surya Gayatri]

22. Bless you for your committment, kennedy...you're what

makes the grass-roots grow.

I live abroad and can only contribute financially in a limited way, or through phone banking in swing states (thanks to an "unlimited international calls" option from my ISP provider).

[fujiyama]

17. I'll admit, I'm a little disappointed how much much VA has tightened

but I still think it's a state Obama can win - and between FL, NC, and VA, VA is definitely the most likely to go blue again. I definitely don't think any of them should be given up on....

[Cosmocat]

18. Ths one is a head scratcher to me

This is the one outer ring swing state I really felt BO would get.

[geek tragedy]

21. Two words: Creigh Deeds.

He was so awful he set Democrats back in that state.

[Kteachums]

23. I is calming to hear this! I have been very concerned! We don't ever stop till it is over!

[renate]

24. I was just reading Nate Silver's book this morning

He said (as people here already have) that Cook is very reputable--he spent a few pages on Cook's methods.

This is great news!