Hillary leads in every mathematically meaningful remaining state

[bigtree]

Daily News Bin @DailyNewsBin
Hillary Clinton now holds leads in Wisconsin, New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania, California polls

Hillary Clinton now leads the democratic primary race by more than 2.5 million popular votes and by several hundred delegates (plus superdelegates), allowing her to absorb the rare good day by her opponent Bernie Sanders today in which he won Washington and Alaska handily. But the good news for Hillary is that Bernie doesn’t have another good day left on the calendar. In fact she now holds leads in every mathematically meaningful remaining state in the contest.

Next up is Wisconsin, which some pundits had expected to be favorable to Sanders. But the latest polling says that Clinton now holds a six point lead in the state (source). While that contest may end up being a close call, most of the other renaming big states won’t be. Clinton holds an average 34.5 point lead in the delegate-rich state of New York. Then comes Pennsylvania where her lead is 27.5 points, and Maryland where her lead is 33 points.

There has been much buzz over California, but Hillary Clinton now holds a seven point lead there in the first new polling in the state in some time. Even if Bernie Sanders were to pull off an upset and win a few of these states, it would be by small margins. He’s fallen so far behind in the popular vote and in the delegate count that he would need to win all of these states by blowouts, and he’s not on a path to win any of them in a blowout.

So in a word, yes, the democratic primary race is over. There are of course more than merely the above five states remaining. In fact a number of smaller and/or less high profile states have yet to vote, and he will win at least a few of them. But even many of those, such as Kentucky, are likely to heavily favor Hillary Clinton. So at a time when Bernie Sanders needs blowout wins in big and medium states more than ever, there just aren’t any of those remaining.


read: http://www.dailynewsbin.com/news/hillary-clinton-now-holds-leads-in-wisconsin-new-york-maryland-pennsylvania-california/24258/

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. Hey my watch works!!!!!

[Logical]

34. +1000, this post is made daily by the hill fans. nt

[BeanMusical]

44. Oh, that's why it looked so familiar.

I though that I was having déjà vu all over again.

[rock]

50. We do so love hearing it

It give us a good laugh when we hear "Bernie is winning!"

[Trust Buster]

2. Can't wait for the prez to start stumping with her. He'll make Trump look silly.

[Ned_Devine]

40. Mmm! I could go for some mac and cheese. Anyone else?

[ViseGrip]

43. But Bernie is ahead now in California.....

[virtualobserver]

3. back to dailytrashbin again?

[bigtree]

6. pity

...that's all you have left.

Where's the Nation when you need them?

[virtualobserver]

9. if polls decided elections, we wouldn't need to vote

[bigtree]

15. at least you're acknowledging the polls

[speaktruthtopower]

4. I have a hard time believing Bernie won't be..

competitive in his native NY, which is right next to Vermont.

If the recent national polls showing him about even are close to accurate, it means he is ahead in Northern states to offset her big lead in the South.

[bigtree]

7. he's far behind in NY

[JI7]

28. i think new york for Sanders is how Illinois was to Clinton in 2008

They have their own roots in the state but they are up against candidates who currently and more recently rep the states.

Losing the state would not be comparable to Rubio losing florida against trump.

[jeff47]

5. Just like she was leading in Michigan.

How'd that turn out again?

Also, if you actually believed this, you wouldn't have to post it 2-3 times a day. You could sit back and wait for the inevitable to happen. As an added bonus, you wouldn't be alienating voters you need in November.

But here you are, every single day, demanding that everyone just give up.

[gabeana]

10. I know huh

kind of reminds me of this

[bigtree]

11. the 'alienating' thing is overblown

...most Democrats will show up for either candidate. Only irresponsible people who care more about their sweet selves will stand by and allow republicans to gain the upper hand in the general election.

Sorry if pointing all of this out is 'alienating' you.

[jeff47]

13. You don't need most Democrats.

Most Democrats live in blue states that will vote for the Democrat either way.

You need a tiny sliver of Democrats in certain swing states. Which means you can ill afford to alienate anyone.

[bigtree]

18. this isn't even an issue (beyond DU)

...but you go on.

[jeff47]

26. Well, let's take a look at my state.

Turnout went down by 1.3% between 2008 and 2012. The result? Obama won the state in 2008 and lost the state in 2012.

1.3% is not a very large number of people.

If your predictions are correct, you can not afford to alienate anyone. Even on DU.

[bigtree]

36. wrong that Hillary supporters are supposed to walk some fine line

...while the candidate and her supporters are regularly castigated here.

You act as if we're some political monolith instead of living, breathing individuals. Support in November is your own responsibility. if you can't wrap your politics around that fact, you don't deserve anyone's support or consideration.

[jeff47]

45. It's what happens when you "pivot to the general".

If you're so sure the primary is done and it's time for you to think about the general, then you need to actually think about the general.

If you're not so sure that the primary is done, then you should probably stop making post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post after post claiming that the primary is done.

Support in November is your own responsibility

Nope. Clinton can't win NC in November, even if Satan himself is the Republican nominee. So if your predictions are accurate, then you're going to have to worry about getting support in another state.

[bigtree]

46. Obama won NC

[jeff47]

48. Only in 2008.

He lost in 2012, when "Hope and Change" lost some of its shine. Even with the benefit of being the incumbent.

Clinton's "No we can't" campaign can not come close to Obama's 2008 campaign. Heck, Obama himself couldn't repeat Obama's 2008 campaign in NC.

But far more damning, there are easier states for a Democrat to win the urban/rural divide. So Clinton won't bother campaigning here. (Nor do I expect Sanders to campaign here in the general, for the same reason)

[KingFlorez]

21. PUMA overestimates their power

Most voters who have supported either candidate are not going to base their votes on what is said on an internet forum. Most voters don't even look at this forum. PUMA represents a minority of total voters and will not have an effect on the general election.

[jeff47]

29. Turnout dropping by 1.3% changed my state from voting for Obama (2008)

to voting against Obama (2012).

1.3% is not a lot of people.

[MadBadger]

23. Of those, he really only has a chance in Wisconsin which like Michigan is an open primary

He doesnt do well in closed primaries

[MadBadger]

27. Yes, he could win California, I just dont see him doing it

[DemocracyDirect]

55. Don't believe me just watch! nt

[oberliner]

69. She only got 4 fewer delegates than Sanders in Michigan (67-63)

Bernie needs to win by the Alaska/Washington/Hawaii margins moving forward in the big states.

If he can win NY and California by a 75-25 ratio, then he will win the nomination

That being said, I think it's great that he is in the race and should stay in until the very end.

[bigtree]

70. yep, that 'historic' 2% win

...followed by a 5 state loss.

[sadoldgirl]

8. Oh dear, and I was assured so many

times that Bernie could only win Vt and NH.

It's over people it's really over!

[jeff47]

12. IIRC the OP predicted Sanders would only win VT and NH.

And with that kind of track record, we should definitely trust the OP's predictive powers!

[truedelphi]

54. AND of course we all know that candidate Bernie Sanders will

Probably be indicted.

Ooops - I meant Hillary!

[BeanMusical]

56. Lol, like in this post:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=802331

MohRokTah - Fri Nov 13, 2015

4. He'll win Vermont on Super Tuesday.

He may possibly win New Hampshire.

That's about it.

Since Vermont is on Super Tuesday, I expect the race to last that long.

Oops!

[Wilms]

14. Of course campaign spokespersons say things like that.

What else have you got??

[aidbo]

16. Well, I'm happy that my vote will be counted. Even if my state is "mathematically meaningless."

[Doctor_J]

17. And she's still conservative and drenched in corruption

More polls aren't going to change that fact, or my vote

[bigtree]

22. unfortunately for your candidate, you've been in the minority on that

...a majority of voters simply not believing Sanders is a better alternative.

[kcjohn1]

19. Joke of analysis

Wasn't he down by 50 points in Illinois 1 week before election? That was virtual tie.

There is no way he gets blown out in NY like the polls show. Remember Teachout with very LITTLE resources and against sitting Governor got 34% of the vote in the primary.

Bernie will campaign for like 2 weeks in the state. There are progressive votes to be had. Only question is can he turn out the vote.

[morningfog]

20. Well that's a bunch of horse shit.

[bigtree]

25. most of the large, upcoming states are out of his reach

...certainly not going to provide him the margins he needs to overcome Hillary's lead in delegates.

[morningfog]

32. It's all horseshit. Every state matters mathematically and otherwise.

And Hillary does not lead by several hundred pledged delegates. Horse shit divisive propaganda.

[bigtree]

38. writing's on the wall

...I'm sure your candidate recognizes this.

[enid602]

37. anti-Wall St.

I don't think his anti-Wall St message will play well in CT, NY, NJ, PA, MD.

[KingFlorez]

24. Don't post this anymore

You have to be very delicate with posters here, there's a lot of fragility about and these sort of posts really hurt their feelings.

[bigtree]

30. hand-holding is over

...folks who regularly refer to Hillary and her supporters as liars, corporatists, and warmongers will need to rely on their antipathy to maintain their warm and fuzzy selves.

[Number23]

66. Calling these people "fragile" is putting it DAMN mildly.

[rbrnmw]

71. ...

[hellofromreddit]

31. That's a terribly racist and deplorable meme

Some of the other remaining states have quite a few minority voters.

Wouldn't want to say those people don't matter, would you?

[bigtree]

39. blocked

[MadBadger]

52. racist?

[hellofromreddit]

57. Context

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1576747

[Warren Stupidity]

68. Only if you are a Sanders supporter.

Clinton supporters can spew bile all they want now. Thanks Obama!

[BeanMusical]

58. +1

[paulthompson]

33. See this!

There's a consistent pattern of Sanders having late surges outside the South.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511576753#post19

He's ALWAYS down by a lot in the polls weeks before the primary date. And sometimes he wins, sometimes he loses, but he always ends up doing much, much better.

Today is another case in point. Remarkably, there was only one poll in the three states voting today. In Alaska, the poll showed Clinton winning by three points, 44 to 41. Of course, in the end Sanders won 81 to 19! Could a poll possibly be MORE OFF than that?! And that's happened in state after state, outside the South.

I have no idea what the final results will be in states like New York or California. But I can guarantee Sanders will beat the current polls, and by a big amount. Because he has surged in just about every single state outside the South.

[Logical]

35. LOL ,you make this post at least 3 times a day. Short on better news? nt

[potone]

41. Really.

And it is especially obnoxious on a day when Bernie won two states. This message is very tiresome as well as tone-deaf, which is why I decided to block him. If Hillary wins, she wins. There is no need to berate Sanders' supporters with the message every single day that he won't win and we should just give up. Bernie has said that he is in it until the convention, and why shouldn't he be? He's still winning states and has supporters who want him to stay in.

[some guy]

42. So you're saying you're scared. n/t

[bigtree]

47. blocked

[some guy]

49. Sorry; very scared. Good. n/t

[NuclearDem]

63. Double digit lead in New York. Last poll was +48.

New York alone has more delegates at stake than all five caucus states Sanders won this week.

[SidDithers]

51. DU rec...nt

Sid

[dchill]

53. Not as meaningful as it was yesterday.

Have fun with it!

[mhatrw]

59. LOL. If Daily Hillary Rag says so.

And in the third month, he rose again!

[bigtree]

62. feeling it

[Lucinda]

60. Yup.

[Lorien]

61. Daily News bin????

[corbettkroehler]

64. Senate Designed So That Every State Matters

The same holds true of the presidential preference primary. Besides, all of the cynics claiming that Sanders has no chance keep repeating that he needs to win by a landslide in all remaining states in order to win. That criticism, by definition, means that all states matter. As a bonus, Phase I of the Western Primary yielded landslides for Sanders.

[Number23]

65. She appears to have done exactly what she needs to do.

[cui bono]

67. What's with this mathist OP? I am APPALLED I tells ya, APPALLED!!!

How dare you post that there are states that are mathematically meaningless! This is a travesty! It must be racist too!!! I'm sure it is. Where is our resident expert on this???

Now California doesn't matter? How dare you say the democratic primary race is over. So Californians don't get a say? That must be racist!!! It has to be!!!

.