PPP Ohio O 49 R 48

[Jennicut]

Last week was O 51 R 46.

I suppose it depends on what their voter ID ends up coming out as. Iowa was R plus 4 when the Dem registration is higher in that state then the Repub one is.

This is from their twitter feed only.

Obama is up 66/34 with early voters in Ohio (21% of electorate) but down 52/44 with those yet to vote.

It comes down to early voting. Keep in mind Fox has Obama plus 3 from their poll on 10/17 to 10/18. I think Obama probably has a 2 to 3 point lead there.

[DarthDem]

1. Lead Holding

Variance is almost certainly statistical noise. Concern trolls will be here shortly, but PPP's midwest polling seems to have developed an impairment that can't be linked to any actual events. I'm sure the tabs are funky somehow.

[Jennicut]

2. Yeah, I see Ohio as much stronger then Va and yet they have VA with Obama plus 2.

I am not worried, actually. Not when Fox, Rasmussen, Survey USA and PPP all show small leads.

[SugarShack]

43. LINK?

[Azathoth]

3. That 52/44 worries me

It means the momentum is against us. The longer folks wait to vote, the more they break toward Romney.

[DarthDem]

4. You Can't Get That

. . . from those numbers.

[RBInMaine]

5. What is your explanation for that? It surprises me that this poll is so close.

[DarthDem]

10. Doesn't Surprise Me at All

If you believe this poll and its trendlines, then Obama lost four points off his lead after a really strong debate performance. Just not credible.

As for the early voting, the people who haven't voted yet can change their minds.

PPP is jumping the shark this year as their lack of live interviews and cellphones finally reaches critical mass.

And if you don't buy any of that, Obama ia still ahead with a huge early vote banked.

[Azathoth]

13. That early vote can get eclipsed real fast

Like everyone else, I'm praying Ohio holds and that this poll is just an outlier. But I'm seeing very little in these state polls to suggest that people actually are changing their minds and coming back to us. Everything seems to suggest that we ran up huge early vote margins, and now we're slowly bleeding to death as the remaining voters break for Romney.

The Ohio SOS is a Republican. Come Nov. 6, we can't fucking afford for this race to be so close that we find ourselves desperately counting and recounting hanging chads in some obscure precinct in Cuyahoga county.

[DarthDem]

55. LOL

Good lord. Your concern is noted.

[Azathoth]

56. After 2000 and 2004, I can't imagine how any Dem could mock concerns about a tightening race in Ohio

I for one don't want to go through a recount overseen by a Republican who is currently distinguishing himself by suppressing early voting in defiance of court order.

We need to head into the election solidly ahead in Ohio. Polls that show remaining voters there breaking for Romney concern me. Greatly.

[DarthDem]

57. You May Need to Relax

Bleeding votes, hanging chads. This isn't 2000 or even 2004 anymore.

[Azathoth]

59. What's changed?

Rove is running the GOP's smear campaign against us, the Ohio SOS is a renegade partisan activist, the national race is neck-and-neck...this is starting to feel like the good ol days. The only reason we aren't in a panic is because of Ohio.

As for bleeding votes...show me one set of polls from the last couple of weeks that shows us gaining ground with voters who haven't voted yet.

[DarthDem]

63. Early Voting

That's what has changed. If you don't want to believe that, I cannot assist.

[helpisontheway]

14. Perhaps people are no longer paying attention to the debate. Perhaps they have heard what Obama has

to say and they have decided they want someone new?? Just a thought. Personally I grinned from ear to ear every time that Obama made him look like an absolute fool. However, maybe the people of Ohio did not like it? I really thought he would at least get a 2 pt bump. I guess there is still time for it to show up but this is getting frustrating.

[dennis4868]

7. You didn't get the memo?

We are not allowed to worry here about the election! We must always act as if Obama is up 10 points in every poll. If we start to get concerned about a poll like in a key state, we must be a troll. So everything is rosy right now!

On a serious note, I would like to see more polling out of OH than PPP or Rass. You would think there would be more since its such an important state this election (as it usually is).

[Jennicut]

8. Survey USA and Fox are both Obama plus 3.

I would love to see tons of polling on all the swing states. Survey USA is a robo poller and I think the two firms that do the Fox polling use live people.

[Maximumnegro]

12. Those polls are too good so they don't

count. That's what dennis is saying (see how s/he referenced only PPP or Ras? Totally blocking out the rest. What a surprise.)

[Azathoth]

9. There was a time when PPP and Rass were the "Gravis marketing" of polling

The rinky-dink robopolling firms blasting out numbers to get attention. Now they seem to be the big, respected players. Sad.

[demwing]

11. go to RCP

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

RCP Average - Obama: 48.4 / Romney: 45.8 -- O+2.6

Gravis Marketing: (10/18-10/19 / 1943 LV)
Obama: 47 / Romney: 47 -- Tie

FOX News: (10/17-10/18 / 1131 LV)
Obama: 46 / Romney: 43 -- O+3

Rasmussen Reports: (10/17-10/17 / 750 LV)
Obama: 49 / Romney: 48 -- O+1

SurveyUSA: (10/12-10/15 / 613 LV)
Obama: 45 / Romney: 42 -- O+3

PPP: (10/12-10/13 / 880 LV)
Obama: 51 / Romney: 46 -- O+5

NBC/WSJ/Marist: (10/7-10/9 / 994 LV)
Obama: 51 / Romney: 45 -- O+6

ARG: (10/5-10/8 / 600 LV)
Obama: 47 / Romney: 48-- R+1

CNN/Opinion Research: (10/5-10/8 / 722 LV)
Obama: 51 / Romney: 47 -- O+4

[progressivebydesign]

27. can't believe people would still consider that fraud GRAVIS, in their totals...

regardless of the Obama numbers. The majority of polls are right wing, period. Owned by right wingers, or corporate overlords, and they ALL missed the last election by anywhere from 3-10% because they focus on some silly "likely voters" nonsense, which is not based on the true demographics of today's voters.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

60. That's not really what it means

It just means his base are the "traditional" people who vote on election day. It doesn't mean there aren't undecideds who will make up their mind for other reasons.

[amborin]

6. are we countering

their online ads
and that other koch-funded pac

this one, americans for prosperity:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251156526


also, are we countering herman cain in philly, advising
biz to urge workers to vote R...from the nation

[boingboinh]

15. THE MATH: If these #s for "yet to vote" are Correct Obama Wins

Obama is up 66/34 with early voters in Ohio (21% of electorate) but down 52/44 with those yet to vote.

So based on those #s Obama has 13.86% of the electorate already voted for him.
So he would need at least 36.24% of those yet to vote. If they are claiming he has 44% (of the 52) then congratz, he wins Ohio. However if within the next few weeks he stays above 37% then congratz he still wins Ohio.

Of course this doesnt account for the expected Republican voter tampering shenanigans that can affect results due to how close this is.

Also 3% is missing from this which i am not sure are either undecideds or the MOE. Being this razor thin close though that missing 3% could be the changer.

[nsd]

23. Obama needs just under 46% of those yet to vote in order to get to 50% total.

If he already has 13.86% banked away through early voting, then he needs 36.14% more for 50% total. To get this from the 79% of voters still available, he needs 45.75% of them (=36.14 / 79).

[BlueInPhilly]

31. Wrong math - sorry

Actually, the 44% who are yet to vote only applies to 79% of total = 35% of the remaining electorate votes

So 13% + 35% = 48% of total electorate.

Sorry, pure math, R is ahead on this one.


Obama:
21% voted @ 66% = 13%
79% to vote @ 44% = 35%
Total = 48%

Romney
21% voted @ 34% = 8%
79% to vote @ 52% = 41%
Total = 49%

Obama needs to get either the remaining 3%, if they have not voted for any 3rd party yet.

[nsd]

34. This poll gives Romney 52% of likely voters yet to vote, not 55%.

That's why Obama leads by 1.

[BlueInPhilly]

40. Typo, my bad / Same #s

Obama Romey Total O Total R
21% 64% 36% 13% 8%
79% 44% 52% 35% 41%
48% 49%


Obama at 48%
Romney at 49%

[nsd]

42. Still a smidgen off.

Obama = .66*21% + .44*79% = 48.62% (rounded off to 49%).
Romney = .34*21% + .52*79% = 48.22% (rounded off to 48%).

[mikekohr]

62. Using this data President Obama Wins by 3.4%, which is dead nuts with the polling numbers

21% Already voted:
President Obama 13.86%
Romney 7.14%

79% Yet To Vote:
President Obama 37.76%
Romney 41.08%

Total
President Obama: 51.62%
Romney 48.22%






OBAMA and 25 in '12

[ProSense]

16. Here's what makes no sense:

Ohio voters think Obama won the debate this week 48-39, but that doesn't seem to extend to more people voting for him... Ohioans trust Romney more on the economy by a 51/47 margin and trust him more on Libya 49/47. Obama had the advantage on each of those issues in our poll last weekend. Voters do trust Obama over Romney by a 52/44 margin on women's issues, and Obama leads 55/41 with female voters in the poll.

Explain that!

[andym]

17. Because the economy is the number one issue

If what you wrote is correct, here is the critical line:
Ohioans trust Romney more on the economy by a 51/47 margin

Is that right? Because the economy is the number 1 concern by far....

The President has to work very hard to change that perception!

[ProSense]

19. What does that have to do with the question?

I'm asking about trust on Libya, not the economy.

[andym]

28. This was your question about the debate (see the quotes of your post)

"Here's what makes no sense (your title): Ohio voters think Obama won the debate this week 48-39, but that doesn't seem but that doesn't seem to extend to more people voting for him."

Then you continue "Ohioans trust Romney more on the economy by a 51/47 margin and trust him more on Libya 49/47. Obama had the advantage on each of those issues in our poll last weekend. Voters do trust Obama over Romney by a 52/44 margin on women's issues, and Obama leads 55/41 with female voters in the poll."

You then ask to explain it. I assumed you meant explain why obama won the debate but it didn't result in more votes.

My answer was that the poll numbers you gave answered your question.
You're not just talking about Libya-- you're talking about economics in your quote-- and I posit that your own information answers your question

[ProSense]

32. Are you unable to see the point in bold?

It's clear I was referring to Libya.

[andym]

41. I see that you bolded Libya

I don't know why they trust Romney "more" on Libya (although I think it's tied -- it's probably within the MOE). I don't think people care much about Libya anyway-- what does the poll say about its importance? As for the clarity of your question, ask some other DUers and see what they say...

As far as I'm concerned you appeared to ask the critical question whether you meant to or not which is
"Ohio voters think Obama won the debate this week 48-39, but that doesn't seem to extend to more people voting for him... "
However, even if you didn't "ask" that question, it is an important one, if one is going to get too excited about any one poll. I for one, hope that your statement summarizing/quoting the poll is not ultimately true and that we'll see a delayed response of support for the perceived winner of the debate as strong as Romney appeared to get in the first debate.

[Azathoth]

20. Simple. They don't care who won the debate.

It's pretty obvious at this point there was a significant slice of the electorate that was actively looking for an excuse to vote Romney, and they got it during the first debate. Maybe they bought into Romney's bullshit, maybe they just wanted "change," who the hell knows. But now that they've made their jump, for whatever reason, they're actively lapping up whatever that sleazeball is selling. They're not looking for another excuse to switch back to Obama.

[ProSense]

21. Yeah, they were only pretending to support Obama.

It's pretty obvious at this point there was a significant slice of the electorate that was actively looking for an excuse to vote Romney, and they got it during the first debate. Maybe they bought into Romney's bullshit, maybe they just wanted "change," who the hell knows. But now that they've made their jump, for whatever reason, they're actively lapping up whatever that sleazeball is selling. They're not looking for another excuse to switch back to Obama.

Makes as much sense as anyone watching the debate and coming away trusting Romney on Libya.

[Azathoth]

36. No, they weren't "pretending"

They were probably going with the default because they weren't tuned into the race and thus weren't sold on, or didn't know much about, the alternative. That's one of the advantages of incumbency: people who don't follow politics see you as the default option.

[ProSense]

39. This doesn't justify the huge shifts being pushed.

Yeah, everyone expected the raise to tighten, there were undecideds. Some of these polls are showing shifts away from Obama to Romney, that make no sense. It would be one thing if there was a huge debacle, but the first debate could not be such a huge game changer, especially when most polls are showing Romney's bounce fading or gone.

[Azathoth]

46. I don't pretend to understand it

Maybe it's the fucking media, maybe it's the Rove advertising blitz. But our lead imploded and Romney leapt from a -5 to +6 national approval in less than two weeks, all starting with that debate. Now people are telling pollsters that they think we are winning the subsequent debates, but they still side with the other guy. That tells me that either A) a bunch of Obama supporters suddenly discovered something about Obama that scared them away, or B) a lot of people were looking for a reason to vote Romney and they jumped ship at the first opportunity.

[andym]

49. 15% of the voters in Thursday's Ipsos Reuters poll said they could still change their mind

that's a lot of potential movement and apparently a lot of uncertainty.

.
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5839
"15% of voters who plan to vote for either candidate say that they may change their mind before Election Day."

[amborin]

61. upthread

i asked: are we countering this?

their online ads
and that other koch-funded pac

this one, americans for prosperity:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251156526

[franklin200]

18. I think it's just a bad poll

The giveaway is that Brown is only +5 in this poll, in reality he is up by more like 8-10
According to Charlie Cook even GOP internals have it at Obama +4

Remember they had that Washington poll last week that only had Obama +5 and even Rasmussen had it at Obama by double digits.

[writes3000]

22. Exactly. And people here are addicted to polls so they get off on the rollercoaster.

[ProSense]

26. SurveyUSA had Obama up 14, but

hey, 5 points is believable, right?

[krawhitham]

48. Brown +5.6 RCP

[progressivebydesign]

24. What do you mean "DOWN" with 52/44 yet to vote?? Likely voters??

My patience is wearing thing with these non-stop polling posts. Who are the ones "yet to vote???" Are they "likely" voters? Registered?? What poll exactly states this? What is their sampling???

[cheriemedium59]

30. Good point and no matter what Obama still is ahead. Albeit small, but ahead none the less.

[GallopingGhost]

25. I don't know if this will make

anyone feel better, but~

http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/12879549-ohio-voted-for-obama-in-2008-and-will-again-in-2012

Yes, I realize the article is from August.

The Republicans will try to steal Ohio. They do every election.

The Obama campaign is VERY well aware of it.

From what I've read the ground game in Ohio is amazing.

I agree that why anyone in Ohio would vote Romney boggles the mind.

[DavidL]

29. Please include a real link in any post!!!!!

If you don't have the smarts to do that, please don't bother to post this at all!

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_1020.pdf

[Phx_Dem]

52. Chill. No need to be rude.

[MFM008]

33. im so sick of polls

i could tear my flaming head off and throw it at Ichabod Crane.

[GallopingGhost]

38. Maybe you could borrow flamingdem's! n/t

[ColumbusLib]

35. Ohio polling must not include cell phones

My husband and I both have only cell phones, no land line, and we have NEVER been called for a poll. The in-laws get multiple calls a day on their land line, and they are in their 80's and Repubs...

[LisaL]

37. PPP doesn't call cell phones, true.

And younger people tend to use cell phones more than older people.

[DavidL]

45. Polls that do not include cell phones should be illegal, period!!

Many of the cell phone owners they are missing are not at home to get their land line calls because they are out campaigning for Obama! Simple as that.

[DavidL]

44. Exactly !!! This is not "polling"! This is

getting old people who have land lines and don't have caller ID to answer phones.

Those people are 4-1 Republicans. People out working and shopping and actually LIVING their lives, and knowing the f do NOT get polled this late into the season.

Even stay-at-home Obama supporters in OH don't answer calls on their land line from people they don't know, or, if they answer, as soon as they find out it's a robocall, they hang up!!!! But those people vote! They vote, by and large, for Obama.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. No Cellphones

.

[Florida Dem]

50. Let's Hope It's An Aberration

To see a 4 point move towards Romney in 1 week is worrisome. Let's hope it is a glitch with PPP. If not, then for some bizarre reason Ohio is breaking towards Romney. Most of the polls are within the margin of error now. Florida and North Carolina have moved away from Obama if recent polls are averaged together. We need Ohio to hang in there. I just can't believe that Ohio voters would even consider Romney after his vocal opposition to the auto bailout. But here in Florida voters apparently don't have a problem with his radical plans regarding Medicare. Not giving up yet on Florida or Ohio, but don't like the trends.

[hrmjustin]

51. remember they don't uses cell-phones in their polls.

[GallopingGhost]

53. Silver has Ohio at 70%.

Sounds good to me.

[ProSense]

54. Here's something else to consider:

PPP's VA polls show a steady race, but in other states, there are significant shifts?

Obama leads by 2 in Virginia

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama continuing to hold onto a lead in the state at 49% to 47% for Mitt Romney. PPP has conducted three Virginia polls since the first Presidential debate and has found Obama with a 1-3 point advantage on each of them.

- more -

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-2-in-virginia.html

The President has been holding steady in VA, and that's since the first debate. What would cause huge shifts in Iowa and Ohio?

[grantcart]

58. The early voting is a very good sign, very good. Intrade has Obama winning Ohio 60%

[Maximumnegro]

64. How about straight from the Obama campaign:

Before we address Republicans’ claims, here are some numbers reflecting Democrats’ strong
position in the critical state of Ohio:
1. All public polling shows that the President has a double-digit lead among those who
have voted:

 Survey USA found that Obama leads by 19 points (57/38) among those who have
voted already.
 Rasmussen, a Republican pollster, found that Obama leads by 29 points (63/34)
among those who have voted already.
 The Wall Street Journal/NBC poll found that Obama leads by 26 points (63/37)
among those who have voted already.
 PPP found that Obama leads by 52 points (76/24) among those who have voted
already.

2. Registration numbers strongly favor President Obama:
 Four in five Ohioans (81 percent) who have registered to vote in 2012 are either
female, younger than 30, or African-American or Latino – all demographics that
strongly favor President Obama.

 Nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of Ohioans who have registered to vote in 2012 – and
the same percentage among those who have already voted – live in counties that
President Obama won in 2008.

3. Early vote numbers strongly favor President Obama:

 More than half (55 percent) of the early-vote ballots requested so far this year have
been requested by women, 3 percentage points greater than 2008 early voters.

 582,402 ballots have been requested this year from precincts that Obama won in
2008, 33,414 more than in from precincts that McCain won.

 The total number of votes already cast this year (both by mail and in-person) from
precincts Obama won in 2008 is 261,304 – 55,636 more than from precincts McCain
won. Democrats’ mIt turns out Republicans’ mangled math isn’t limited to a mystery tax cut plan that doesn’t add
up.

Because Republicans had a competitive primary this year and Democrats did not, as Professor
McDonald points out, Republicans have a 460,000-person edge this year in past primary voters –
or what Romney’s campaign is disingenuously referring to as voters registered as Republicans.
Despite our smaller numbers, however, Democratic primary voters are outvoting Republican
primary voters by a wide margin across the state. A greater percentage of Democratic primary
voters than Republican primary voters have requested a ballot, have returned a mail ballot and
have voted in person. Altogether, 145,880 Democratic primary voters have cast ballots, 28,013
more than Republican primary voters.
President Obama is winning early vote among primary election voters in the key battleground of
Ohio.

More here