Do presidential debates usually matter? Political scientists say no.

[onehandle]

The polls don't shift

Perhaps the most compelling evidence for the irrelevance of debates is that polling in past races hasn't changed much at all following them. John Sides, a political scientist at GWU and official friend-of-the-blog, summarized the research on this in the Washington Monthly. He notes that a study by UNC's James Stimson found few noticeable changes in polling after debates, and cites the work of Columbia's Robert Erikson and Temple's Christopher Wlezien, who focus on election forecasting using national polling.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/10/03/what-political-scientists-know-about-debates

[nichomachus]

1. So, why was Mrs. Clinton calling for them in 2008? Nt

[Attorney in Texas]

2. Marco Rubio raises his hand to answer this question. Shakes his head, and then slowly lowers his arm

[onehandle]

6. The difference being that neither Hillary nor Bernie are total boobs. nt

[bobbobbins01]

3. Then keeping her word should be a piece of cake.

No one gains, no one loses, and she gets points for not backing out.

[hobbit709]

4. Must be the talking point du jour.

Hillary is saying "No mas" to debates.

[NWCorona]

5. Here comes the discounting of debates now.

I can't remember his name but there was another guy this cycle who was having a rough go so he decided not to show up for a debate.

Debates are important as it's probably the only time candidates can challenge one another.

[GreatGazoo]

7. Headline says "no" but the very interesting article says

Princeton's Sam Wang — who's an amateur forecaster rather than a political scientist — disagrees with this conclusion ('no impact'). He notes that his forecasting model saw notable shifts in what outcome it predicted in 2004 after debates
...
Nate Silver claims you can show slight national poll gains for challengers following debates. However, the effect is small, with an average shift of 2.3 percentage points, and it's hard to infer causality with such a small sample.

Lots of interesting stuff in there about perceived negativity and impact of media. Recommended.

[upaloopa]

8. I have seen Bernie in town halls and debates and interviews

He repeats the same talking points over and over.


It is actually boring to watch him


Plus that pointing finger drives me up a wall


I would not watch him again on anything

[panader0]

9. I've seen a few of these posts today....

[cemaphonic]

10. That's been my take for some time.

Whatever boost debates can give a candidate always seem to be small and short-lived. OTOH, sometimese they give you stuff like this:


Still gives me a laugh after all these years.

[Persondem]

11. Of course they matter ... they give whiners on DU something to whine about.

Primary voters have almost all made up their minds by this point.

Thank you for posting this.

K & R

[TheDormouse]

12. Political scientists and other commentators have been wrong on just

about every important aspect of this election cycle so far.
'Nuff said.

[TheDormouse]

13. tell me w/ a straight face that debate performance didn't affect Rubio's & Perry's chances nt

[Gwhittey]

14. This post is super duper big time

[nadinbrzezinski]

15. They had to go shopping

because they have mattered and big time since JFK.

Hell, we even got the debate both in Radio form and TV form to each a lesson